Opinion polling for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
| Opinion polling for Brazilian presidential elections |
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Since the 2022 Brazilian general election, polling companies have published surveys tracking national voting intention for the 2026 Brazilian general election. The results of these surveys are listed below in reverse chronological order and include candidates who frequently polled above 3% and are registered in a party as well elegible by the Superior Electoral Court of Brazil.
Pre-campaign period
[edit]2025
[edit]First round
[edit]| Polling firm | Polling period | Lula
|
Freitas
|
Bolsonaro
|
Gomes
|
Ratinho
|
Zema
|
Caiado
|
Others [a] |
Blank Null Undec. [b] |
Margin of error [c] |
Sample size | Lead | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Datafolha | 10–11 Jun 2025 | 37 | 21 | — | — | 11 | 6 | 6 | — | 19 | ±2 pp | 2,004 | 16 | [1] |
| AtlasIntel | 19–23 May 2025 | 44.1 | 33.1 | — | 3 | — | 1.4 | 4.7 | 8.3 | 5.4 | ±1 pp | 4,399 | 11 | [2] |
| Gerp | 21–25 Apr 2025 | 30 | 19 | — | 9 | — | 4 | 4 | 7 | 18 | ±2.2 pp | 2,000 | 11 | [3] |
| AtlasIntel | 20–24 Apr 2025 | 42.8 | 34.3 | — | 2.7 | — | 1.6 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 8 | ±1 pp | 5,419 | 8.5 | [4] |
| 43.3 | — | 31.3 | 3 | — | 3 | 5.5 | 8 | 6.9 | 12 | |||||
| Paraná Pesquisas | 16–19 Apr 2025 | 34 | 27.3 | — | 12.6 | — | — | 4.8 | 5.5 | 15.7 | ±2.2 pp | 2,020 | 6.7 | [5] |
| Datafolha | 1–3 Apr 2025 | 35 | 15 | — | 11 | — | 3 | 2 | 18 | 14 | ±2 pp | 3,054 | 20 | [6] |
| 35 | — | 15 | 12 | — | 4 | 3 | 18 | 12 | 20 | |||||
| AtlasIntel | 24–27 Feb 2025 | 41.6 | 32.3 | — | — | — | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 12.6 | ±1 pp | 5,710 | 9.3 | [7] |
| CNT | 19–23 Feb 2025 | 30.4 | 14 | — | 14.3 | — | 3.9 | 3.9 | 13.2 | 20.2 | ±2.2 pp | 2,002 | 16.1 | [8] |
| Paraná Pesquisas | 13–16 Feb 2025 | 34.1 | — | 27.2 | 9 | — | — | 4.7 | 13.1 | 12 | ±2.2 pp | 2,100 | 6.9 | [9] |
| Quaest | 23–26 Jan 2025 | 30 | 13 | — | 9 | — | 3 | 3 | 23 | 19 | ±1 pp | 4,500 | 17 | [10] |
Second round
[edit]| Polling firm | Polling period | Lula
|
Freitas
|
Bolsonaro
|
Ratinho
|
Zema
|
Caiado
|
Blank Null Undec. [b] |
Margin of error [c] |
Sample size | Lead | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Datafolha | 10–11 Jun 2025 | 43 | 42 | — | — | — | — | 15 | ±2 pp | 2,004 | 1 | [1] |
| Quaest | 29 May – 1 June 2025 | 41 | 40 | — | — | — | — | 19 | ±2 pp | 2,004 | 1 | [11] |
| 40 | — | — | 38 | — | — | 22 | 2 | |||||
| AtlasIntel | 19–23 May 2025 | 45.3 | 48.9 | — | — | — | — | 4.9 | ±1 pp | 4,399 | 3.6 | [12] |
| AtlasIntel | 20–24 Apr 2025 | 46.7 | 46.7 | — | — | — | — | 6.6 | ±1 pp | 5,419 | Tie | [13] |
| 46.7 | — | 46.1 | — | — | — | 7.3 | 0.6 | |||||
| Paraná Pesquisas | 16–19 Apr 2025 | 40.6 | 43.4 | — | — | — | — | 16 | ±2.2 pp | 2,020 | 2.8 | [5] |
| Datafolha | 1–3 Apr 2025 | 48 | 39 | — | — | — | — | 14 | ±2 pp | 3,054 | 9 | [14] |
| 50 | — | 38 | — | — | — | 12 | 12 | |||||
| Quaest | 27–31 Mar 2025 | 43 | 37 | — | — | — | — | 20 | ±2 pp | 2,004 | 6 | [15] |
| 44 | — | 38 | — | — | — | 18 | 6 | |||||
| AtlasIntel | 20–24 Mar 2025 | 46 | 47 | — | — | — | — | 7 | ±1 pp | 4,659 | 1 | [16] |
| Futura Inteligência | 19–22 Mar 2025 | 37.6 | 42.3 | — | — | — | — | 20.1 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 | 4.7 | [17] |
| AtlasIntel | 24–27 Feb 2025 | 47 | 49 | — | — | — | — | 4 | ±1 pp | 5,710 | 2 | [7] |
| Paraná Pesquisas | 13–16 Feb 2025 | 40.5 | — | 42.9 | — | — | — | 16.6 | ±2.2 pp | 2,100 | 2.4 | [18] |
| 41.1 | 40.8 | — | — | — | — | 18.1 | 0.3 | |||||
| AtlasIntel | 27–31 Jan 2025 | 45.7 | 44.7 | — | — | — | — | 9.6 | ±2 pp | 3,125 | 1 | [19] |
| 47.4 | — | — | — | — | 36.5 | 16.1 | 10.9 | |||||
| Quaest | 23–26 Jan 2025 | 43 | 34 | — | — | — | — | 23 | ±1 pp | 4,500 | 9 | [20] |
| 45 | — | — | — | 28 | — | 27 | 17 | |||||
| 45 | — | — | — | — | 26 | 29 | 19 |
2024
[edit]First round
[edit]| Polling firm | Polling period | Lula
|
Haddad
|
Freitas
|
J. Bolsonaro[d]
|
Marçal[d]
|
M. Bolsonaro
|
Gomes
|
Zema
|
Ratinho
|
Moro
|
Caiado
|
Leite
|
Barbalho
|
Tebet
|
Cristina
|
Blank Null Undec. [b] |
Margin of error [c] |
Sample size | Lead | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paraná Pesquisas | 21–25 Nov 2024 | 33.6 | — | — | 37.6 | — | — | 7.9 | — | — | — | 3.7 | — | — | 7.7 | — | 9.6 | — | 2,014 | 4 | [21] |
| 34.2 | — | — | — | — | 27.5 | 10.2 | — | — | — | 6.4 | — | — | 8.2 | — | 13.5 | 6.7 | |||||
| 34.7 | — | 24.1 | — | — | — | 11.5 | — | — | — | 5.3 | — | — | 8.4 | — | 16.1 | 10.6 | |||||
| 34.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 12.8 | — | 15.3 | — | 8.9 | — | — | 8.7 | — | 19.9 | 19.1 | |||||
| 34.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 13.4 | 12.2 | — | — | 8 | — | — | 9.5 | — | 22.2 | 21.3 | |||||
| — | 14.5 | — | 38.3 | — | — | 14.2 | — | — | — | 4.4 | — | — | 13 | — | 15.6 | 23.8 | |||||
| — | 14.9 | — | — | — | 27.6 | 17 | — | — | — | 7.1 | — | — | 13.5 | — | 19.9 | 10.6 | |||||
| CNT | 7–10 Nov 2024 | 35.2 | — | — | 32.2 | 8.4 | — | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 8 | — | 10 | ±2.2 pp | 2,002 | 3 | [22] |
| 34.1 | — | — | — | 14.1 | 20.5 | 9.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 9.2 | — | 12.8 | 13.6 | |||||
| 35.2 | — | 15 | — | 16.9 | — | 9.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 9.5 | — | 14 | 18.3 | |||||
| Paraná Pesquisas | 18–22 Jul 2024 | 38.3 | — | — | 36.9 | — | — | 7.9 | — | — | — | 3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | — | — | 11.6 | ±2.2 pp | 2,026 | 1.4 | [23] |
| 38.7 | — | — | — | — | 30.3 | 9.1 | — | — | — | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | — | — | 14.5 | 8.4 | |||||
| 38.9 | — | 24.4 | — | — | — | 11.8 | — | — | — | 4 | 2.7 | 0.6 | — | — | 17.6 | 14.5 | |||||
| 39 | — | — | — | — | — | 12.4 | — | 14.2 | — | 7.5 | 3.3 | 0.7 | — | — | 22.8 | 24.8 | |||||
| 38.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 13.3 | 13.1 | — | — | 6.7 | 3.5 | 0.8 | — | — | 23.9 | 25.5 | |||||
| Quaest | 2–6 May 2024 | 46 | — | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 14 | ±2.2 pp | 2,045 | 6 | [24] |
| Paraná Pesquisas | 27 Apr – 1 May 2024 | 36 | — | — | 38.8 | — | — | 8.4 | — | — | — | — | 3.4 | 1.0 | — | — | 12.3 | ±2.2 pp | 2,020 | 2.8 | [25] |
| 36.6 | — | — | — | — | 33 | 10.1 | — | — | — | — | 3.8 | 1.4 | — | — | 15.0 | 3.6 | |||||
| 36.9 | — | 25.6 | — | — | — | 11.8 | — | — | — | — | 3.8 | 1.3 | — | — | 20.7 | 11.3 | |||||
| 37.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 14.7 | — | — | — | 10.9 | 5.6 | 1.7 | — | — | 29.8 | 22.5 | |||||
| 36.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 15.2 | — | — | — | — | 6.5 | 1.9 | — | 15.2 | 31.0 | 21.7 | |||||
| 36.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 13.8 | — | 17.6 | — | — | 4.9 | 1.6 | — | — | 25.9 | 18.7 | |||||
| 37.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 14.8 | 14.9 | — | — | — | 5.1 | 1.8 | — | — | 26.3 | 22.3 | |||||
| Paraná Pesquisas | 24–28 Jan 2024 | 37.6 | — | — | — | — | 23 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 5.1 | — | 1.9 | — | 0.9 | — | — | 15.6 | ±3.4 pp | 2,026 | 14.6 | [26] |
| 37.4 | — | 17.4 | — | — | — | 10.3 | 5.8 | 6.2 | — | 2.1 | — | 1.1 | — | — | 19.6 | 20 | |||||
| 36.9 | — | — | 33.8 | — | — | 7.8 | 3.9 | 3.9 | — | 1.2 | — | 0.8 | — | — | 11.7 | 3.1 | |||||
| Paraná Pesquisas | 29 Sep – 3 Oct 2023 | 36.6 | — | 12.7 | — | — | — | 6.3 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 1.2 | 2.1 | — | 7.4 | 1.9 | 14.9 | ±2.2 pp | 2,020 | 23.9 | [27] |
| 37.6 | — | 18.9 | — | — | — | 8.7 | — | — | — | — | 3.7 | — | 9.0 | — | 22.2 | 18.7 | |||||
| 37.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 8.8 | 15.3 | — | — | — | 4.0 | — | 8.8 | — | 25.5 | 22.3 | |||||
| 37.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 9.2 | — | 12.8 | — | — | 4.1 | — | 8.7 | — | 27.4 | 24.9 |
See also
[edit]Notes
[edit]- ^ Refers to the total for other eligible and ineligible candidates, not registered in a party and that did not frequently polled above 3%.
- ^ a b c Refers to the total, "raw" sample size, including undecided and non-voters.
- ^ a b c In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the former is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls (because of their opt-in method of recruiting panelists which results in a non-random sample) cannot have a margin of error. In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.
- ^ a b Ineligible.
References
[edit]- ^ a b "Datafolha: Lula lidera maioria dos cenários de 1° turno, mas empata com Bolsonaro e Tarcísio no 2°". G1 (in Portuguese). 14 June 2025.
- ^ "Pesquisa testa cenários eleitorais com Lula, Tarcísio e Michelle para 2026; veja os resultados". Carta Capital (in Portuguese). 30 May 2025.
- ^ "Bolsonaro segue à frente de Lula em pesquisa do instituto Gerp sobre 2026". Gazeta do Povo (in Portuguese). 29 April 2025.
- ^ "Bolsonaro e Lula têm empate técnico em disputa para 2026, diz AtlasIntel". UOL (in Portuguese). 28 April 2025.
- ^ a b "Datafolha: Lula venceria Bolsonaro e demais nomes da direita se eleição fosse hoje". Folha de S.Paulo (in Portuguese). 5 April 2025.
- ^ "Datafolha: Lula venceria Bolsonaro e demais nomes da direita se eleição fosse hoje". Folha de S.Paulo (in Portuguese). 5 April 2025.
- ^ a b "Atlas: Lula lidera no 1º turno, mas empata tecnicamente com Tarcísio no 2º turno". UOL (in Portuguese). 7 March 2025.
- ^ "Lula tem 30,3% e Bolsonaro, 30,1% em simulação eleitoral, diz CNT/MD". CNN Brazil (in Portuguese). 18 February 2025.
- ^ "Paraná Pesquisas: sem Bolsonaro, quem é mais competitivo contra Lula?". Veja (in Portuguese). 18 February 2025.
- ^ "Quaest para presidente: Lula tem 30%; Tarcísio, 13%; e Gusttavo Lima, 12%". CNN (in Portuguese). 3 January 2025. Retrieved 3 January 2025.
- ^ "Lula e Bolsonaro empatariam com 41% no 2º turno em 2026, diz Quaest". CNN Brasil (in Portuguese). 5 June 2025.
- ^ "Lula perde para Bolsonaro, Tarcísio e Michelle em segundo turno, diz Atlas". CNN Brasil (in Portuguese). 30 May 2025.
- ^ "Lula está à frente de Tarcísio e Michelle em intenções de voto para 2026, diz pesquisa AtlasIntel". Estadão (in Portuguese). 28 April 2025.
- ^ "Datafolha: Lula teria 48%, contra 39% de Tarcísio em cenário de 2º turno". Folha de S.Paulo (in Portuguese). Retrieved 5 April 2025.
- ^ "Lula e Bolsonaro empatam, e presidente vence outros 7 candidatos em cenários de 2º turno em 2026, aponta Quaest". G1 (in Portuguese). Retrieved 3 April 2025.
- ^ Salles Barros, Henrique. "Lula, Tarcísio, Bolsonaro, Marçal: pesquisa Atlas simula 2° turno para 2026". CNN Brasil (in Portuguese). Retrieved 1 April 2025.
- ^ Porto, Douglas. "Pesquisa Futura: Tarcísio tem 42,3% e Lula, 37,6% em simulação de 2º turno". CNN Brasil (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 27 March 2025.
- ^ "Paraná Pesquisas: sem Bolsonaro, quem é mais competitivo contra Lula?". Veja (in Portuguese). 18 February 2025.
- ^ "Tarcísio vai melhor que Bolsonaro contra Lula no 2º turno, diz AtlasIntel". CNN Brazil (in Portuguese). 3 January 2025. Retrieved 11 February 2025.
- ^ "Lula é favorito em cenários para 2026 sem Bolsonaro, Gusttavo Lima é quem mais se aproxima em 2º turno, diz Genial/Quaest". Terra (in Portuguese). 3 January 2025. Retrieved 3 January 2025.
- ^ "O desempenho de Bolsonaro, Michelle, Tarcísio, Ratinho e Zema em eventuais disputas contra Lula em 2026". CartaCapital (in Brazilian Portuguese). 27 November 2024. Retrieved 4 December 2024.
- ^ "Pesquisa testa cenários com Lula, Marçal, Tarcísio, Bolsonaro e Michelle para 2026; veja os números". CartaCapital (in Brazilian Portuguese). 12 November 2024. Retrieved 14 November 2024.
- ^ Aguiar, Victor. "Pesquisa simula eleição com Lula contra Bolsonaro, Michelle e Tarcísio; veja cenários". CNN Brasil (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 30 July 2024.
- ^ "Poll 02–06 May 2024" (PDF).
- ^ "Lula venceria Tarcísio, mas casal Bolsonaro mantém força para 2026". Poder360 (in Brazilian Portuguese). 24 May 2024. Retrieved 24 May 2024.
- ^ "Pesquisa de Opinião Pública Nacional - Janeiro de 2024" (PDF). Paraná Pesquisas (in Brazilian Portuguese). 9 February 2024. Retrieved 15 February 2024.
- ^ "Pesquisa: Lula lidera com folga, e Tarcísio é nome mais forte da oposição". Veja (in Brazilian Portuguese). 13 October 2023. Retrieved 14 October 2023.
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