Next Bangladeshi general election
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General elections are expected to take place in Bangladesh following the removal of the government of Sheikh Hasina amidst the Student–People's uprising in August 2024. A constituent assembly election will take place before the general elections.[1] The interim government led by Muhammad Yunus has established constitutional and election reform commissions for this purpose and announced that elections will be held in late 2025 or early 2026.[2]
Background
[edit]The 12th Sangsad was dissolved by President Mohammed Shahabuddin following the resignation of Sheikh Hasina.[3] In June 2024, student protests erupted throughout the country, demanding the reform of quotas in government jobs. The protests were met with brutal crackdown by law-enforcement agencies and paramilitary forces, resulting in the deaths of many students. By August, the protests intensified into large-scale civil unrest against the government which eventually culminated in Hasina's resignation on 5 August.
Following negotiations between student leaders and the Armed Forces, Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus was appointed as the Chief Adviser to lead an interim government with a view of leading the country to new elections.[4]
The Awami League won the January 2024 general elections following a record low voter turnout and a controversial election, spite of which they formed a government.[5] The United States Department of State, in a statement, said that the election was not free and fair[6] and the UK's Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office termed the election lacking the preconditions of democracy.[7] According to The Economist, through this election, "Bangladesh effectively became a one-party state".[8]
The main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), demanded that the government hand over power to a neutral caretaker government before the January 2024 elections.[9] This was rejected by Hasina, who vowed that "Bangladesh will never allow an unelected government again".[10] Hasina's resistance to a caretaker government arose following the 2006–2008 crisis, during which a caretaker government assumed military-backed control of the country and arrested a number of political leaders, including Hasina and Khaleda Zia. [11] Khaleda Zia was sentenced to prison for five years on February 8, 2018, for her involvement in the Zia Orphanage corruption case.[12] The sentence was then modified to 10 years.[13] Zia’s successor as chair of the party, her son Tarique Rahman, was also found guilty of criminal conspiracy and multiple counts of murder for a grenade attack in 2004 that injured Hasina and killed 24 people.[14] He was sentenced to life in prison. As such, he was barred from running for office.[15] Khaleda Zia was released by the President of Bangladesh following Hasina's resignation.[16]
The student leaders of the protest movement have also formed political groups like Jatiya Nagorik Party and are assumed to participate in the election.
A petition demanding a ban on the Awami League & its associates of the Grand Alliance filed by the student agitators[17] had been turned down by the Apellate Division.[18] Over time, serious disagreements have arisen over participation of the Awami Laegue in the polls. BNP leader Ruhul Kabir Rizvi & Jatiya Party (Ershad) leader G. M. Quader are open to the participation of Awami League in the polls. Bangladesh Army chief Waker-uz-Zaman had reportedly stated that the participation of a 'refined' Awami League led by leaders with 'clean' image like Shirin Sharmin Chaudhury, Sheikh Fazle Noor Taposh & Saber Hossain Chaudhury is necessary to ensure that the elections are 'free, fair & inclusive'.[19] However, student agitators placed within the interim government like Hasnat Abdullah, Sarjis Alam & Mahfuz Alam are bitterly opposed to the participation of the Awami League in the polls.[20] National Citizen Party leader Nahid Islam also voiced his opposition to participation of the Awami League in the polls, unless it's leaders are put on trial for the July massacre. He stated that any attempt to relaunch the so called refined Awami League in the elections amounts to foreign interference.[21] Jamaat-e-Islami Amir Shafiqur Rahman has also expressed his dissent against allowing Awami League participating in the polls.[19]
For the first time, since the 1991 general elections, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party has decided to participate the elections on its own, without being in alliance with the Islamist outfit Jamaat-e-Islami. BNP general secretary Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir confirmed that the party had broken off it's alliance with the Jamaat.[22]
Electoral system
[edit]The 350 members of the Jatiya Sangsad consist of 300 directly elected seats using first-past-the-post voting (FPTP) in single-member constituencies, and an additional 50 seats reserved for women. The reserved seats are elected proportionally by the elected members. Each parliament sits for a five-year term.[23] The electoral system has been criticised as disproportional[24][25][26] and a key driver of political deadlock in the country.[26] Some of the leading minor parties, including Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, Islami Andolan Bangladesh, Communist Party of Bangladesh, Gono Odhikar Parishad, Amar Bangladesh Party etc., had been in staunch opposition to the system and in support of proportional representation (PR), where Bangladesh Nationalist Party remains a supporter of FPTP.[27][28][29][30]
Parties and alliances
[edit]Grand Alliance
[edit]| Party[31] | Symbol | Flag | Leader | Contesting Seats | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bangladesh Awami League | 
|
|
Sheikh Hasina | TBD | |
| Workers Party of Bangladesh | 
|
Rashed Khan Menon | TBD | ||
| GP | 
|
Arosh Ali | TBD | ||
| JP(M) | 
|
Anwar Hossain Manju | TBD | ||
| BTF | 
|
Syed Najibul Bashar Maizbhandari | TBD | ||
| BSD-ML | .png)
|
Dilip Barua | TBD | ||
Bangladesh Nationalist Party
[edit]| Party[31] | Symbol | Leader | Contesting Seats | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bangladesh Nationalist Party | 
|
Khaleda Zia | TBD | |
Democratic United Front
[edit]
Others
[edit]| Party | Symbol | Flag | Leader | Contesting Seats | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jatiya Party (Ershad) | 
|
|
Ghulam Muhammed Quader | TBD | |
| Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami | 
|
|
Shafiqur Rahman | TBD | |
| Islami Andolan Bangladesh | 
|
Syed Rezaul Karim | TBD | ||
| National Citizen Party | Nahid Islam | TBD | |||
| Bangladesh Jatiya Party | .png){kind=small}
|
|
Andaleeve Rahman | TBD | |
| Liberal Democratic Party | _Emblem_Flag.svg)
|
Oli Ahmed | TBD | ||
| Zaker Party | Ameer Faisal Mujaddedi | TBD | |||
| Trinomool BNP | 
|
Antara Selima Huda | TBD | ||
| Krishak Sramik Janata League | 
|
Abdul Kader Siddique | TBD | ||
| Bikalpa Dhara Bangladesh | 
|
Mahi B. Chowdhury | TBD | ||
| Bangladesh Kalyan Party | 
|
Syed Muhammad Ibrahim | TBD | ||
Opinion polls
[edit]| Polling agency |
Fieldwork dates |
Date published |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
AL | JP(E) | BNP | IAB | Jamaat | NCP | Others | Independents | None | Decided, won't disclose | Undecided | "Can't say"/ No answer |
Lead (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Innovision Consulting | 19 Feb — 3 Mar 2025 | 8 Mar 2025 | 10,696 | ± 0.8% | 5.7% | 0.4% | 17% | 1.1% | 12.9% | 2.1%[a] | 1.4% | — | — | 21.3% | 29.4% | 8.6% | 4.1 |
| Formation of National Citizen Party (NCP) by the student leaders on 28 February 2025 | |||||||||||||||||
| BRAC | 15 — 31 Oct 2024 | 12 Dec 2024 | 4,158 | ± 1.55% | 9% | 1% | 16% | — | 11% | 2%[b] | 9%[c] | — | 2% | — | 38% | 13% | 5 |
| Formation of Jatiya Nagorik Committee, a political platform led by the student leaders on 8 September 2024 | |||||||||||||||||
| Innovision Consulting | 29 Aug — 8 Sep 2024 | 10 Sep 2024 | 5,115 (field) | ± 1.4% | 5% | 1% | 21% | 3% | 14% | 10% | 1% | 3% | 2% | — | 34% | 4% | 7 |
| 3,581 (online) | ± 1.67% | 10% | 0% | 10% | 1% | 25% | 35% | 1% | 3% | 3% | — | 11% | 0% | 10 | |||
| Average | 7.5% | 0.5% | 15.5% | 2% | 19.5% | 22.5% | 1% | 3% | 2.5% | — | 22.5% | 2% | 3 | ||||
| 2018 general election[d] | 74.96% | 5.22% | 11.73% | 1.47% | — | N/A | 1.76% | N/A | N/A | N/A | 63.23 | ||||||
| 2008 general election | 48.04% | 7.04% | 32.5% | 0.94% | 4.7% | N/A | 2.94% | 0.55%[e] | N/A | N/A | 15.54 | ||||||
Schedule
[edit]| Poll Event | Schedule |
|---|---|
| Declaration of the schedule | TBD |
| Application deadline for candidates | TBD |
| Scrutiny of nomination | TBD |
| Last Date for Withdrawal of nomination | TBD |
| Symbol allocation | TBD |
| Start of campaign period | TBD |
| End of campaign period | TBD |
| Date of Poll | TBD |
| Date of Counting of Votes | TBD |
| Date of reserved seats Poll | TBD |
See also
[edit]Notes
[edit]- ^ NCP wasn't formed during the survey. Respondents were asked if they are going to support student led party.
- ^ In a separate question, 40% of the respondents said that they'll vote for a student-led platform if its launched, while 44% said they will not endorse it. Among the rest 9% were undecided and 8% didn’t give any answer.
- ^ 3% for "other Islamic groups", 2% for "for a new political party formed by politicians", and 4% for "others".
- ^ Widely considered to be rigged.
- ^ "None of the above"
References
[edit]- ^ "Constituent assembly to be convened for charter reform: Nahid". Archived from the original on September 24, 2024.
- ^ "Bangladesh To Hold Elections In Late 2025 Or Early 2026: Muhammad Yunus". NDTV.
- ^ "Bangladesh Parliament dissolved, president's office says". Reuters. 6 August 2024. Retrieved 9 August 2024.
- ^ "Who is Muhammad Yunus, the Nobel laureate leader of Bangladesh's interim government?". CNN. 9 August 2024. Retrieved 7 August 2024.
- ^ "Sheikh Hasina wins fifth term in Bangladesh amid turnout controversy". Al Jazeera. 4 January 2024. Retrieved 9 August 2024.
- ^ "Bangladesh Election 'Not Free Or Fair': US". Barron's. Archived from the original on 8 January 2024. Retrieved 9 January 2024.
- ^ "UK Says Boycotted Bangladesh Poll Not 'Democratic'". Barron's. Agence France-Presse. Archived from the original on 10 January 2024. Retrieved 9 January 2024.
- ^ "Bangladesh is now in effect a one-party state". The Economist. ISSN 0013-0613. Archived from the original on 9 January 2024. Retrieved 9 January 2024.
- ^ Kamruzzaman, Md. (January 17, 2023). "Bangladesh's main opposition party demands formation of caretaker government ahead of polls". Anadolu Agency. Retrieved 20 April 2024.
- ^ "Bangladesh will never allow an unelected government again, says Hasina". BDNews24. February 10, 2023. Retrieved 20 April 2023.
- ^ "Former Bangladesh Prime Minister Arrested". NPR. 16 July 2007.
- ^ "Minister: Khaleda Zia's release will be revoked if she participates in politics". Dhaka Tribune. June 11, 2023.
- ^ "Zia Orphanage Graft Case: Khaleda's jail term raised to 10 years". The Daily Star. October 31, 2018.
- ^ "Tarique Rahman acting chairman: BNP leader". The Daily Star. February 8, 2018.
- ^ "Adequate data found to try Jamaat for war crimes". Bangladesh Post. June 11, 2023.
- ^ "Who is Khaleda Zia, Sheikh Hasina's rival and former Bangladesh PM who was on 'deathbed' a few months ago". The Economic Times. 6 August 2024. Retrieved 9 August 2024.
- ^ "'Ban all political activities of AL, 10 other parties'". The Daily Star. 2024-10-29. Retrieved 2025-03-23.
- ^ "High Court dismisses writ seeking ban on Awami League". The Business Standard. 2024-09-01. Retrieved 2025-03-23.
- ^ a b "থমথমে ঢাকা, ইউনূস-উচ্ছেদ ও সেনাশাসন চেয়ে মিছিল". Anandabazar Patrika. 22 March 2025.
- ^ PTI (2025-01-26). "Awami League won't be allowed to contest Bangladesh polls: Muhammed Yunus' key adviser". The Hindu. ISSN 0971-751X. Retrieved 2025-03-23.
- ^ "Bangladesh party claims bid to relaunch Awami League with new name at 'India's behest'". The Times of India. ISSN 0971-8257. Retrieved 2025-03-23.
- ^ "No BNP-Jamaat alliance exists now". The Daily Star. 2024-08-30. Retrieved 2025-03-23.
- ^ "IPU Parline database: Bangladesh (Jatiya Sangsad), Electoral system". Inter-Parliamentary Union. Retrieved 18 April 2021.
- ^ Katherine L. Ekstrand, No Matter Who Draws the Lines: A Comparative Analysis of the Utility of Independent Redistricting Commissions in First-Past-the-Post Democracies, 45 GJICL (2016).
- ^ "4: Persistent Factionalism: Bangladesh, Bolivia, Zimbabwe", Democratization and the Mischief of Faction, Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1 July 2018, pp. 85–112, doi:10.1515/9781626377363-006, ISBN 978-1-62637-736-3, retrieved 7 October 2024
- ^ a b "Women's Reserved Seats in Bangladesh: A Systemic Analysis of Meaningful Representation". International Foundation for Electoral Systems. June 2016. Retrieved 7 October 2024.
- ^ প্রধান উপদেষ্টার সঙ্গে পীর সাহেব চরমোনাই'র নেতৃত্বে ৬ সদস্যের প্রতিনিধি দলের সংলাপ. Islami Andolan Bangladesh. 5 October 2024.
- ^ পিআর নির্বাচন পদ্ধতি কী? প্রচলিত ব্যবস্থার সঙ্গে পার্থক্য কোথায়. Jugantor. 20 October 2024.
- ^ সংখ্যানুপাতিক নির্বাচন পদ্ধতি কী, কীভাবে হতে পারে বাস্তবায়ন. banglanews24.com. 16 October 2024.
- ^ বাশার, খাইরুল (24 October 2024). কেমন হবে যদি নির্বাচন হয় সংখ্যানুপাতিক পদ্ধতিতে. Shokal Shondha.
- ^ a b "BNP secures backing of allies for Feb programmes". The Daily Star. Feb 1, 2025.
- ^ "নতুন জোট গঠনে তৎপর বাম-প্রগতিশীলরা, প্রার্থী ৩০০ আসনেই". www.kalerkantho.com. Jan 10, 2025.
- ^ "বাম ও মুক্তিযুদ্ধের পক্ষের দলগুলো নিয়ে 'যুক্তফ্রন্ট' হচ্ছে". 2 February 2025.
