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Opinion polling for the next Serbian parliamentary election

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In the run-up to the next Serbian parliamentary election, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions in Serbia. The results of such polls are displayed in this list. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous election, held on 17 December 2023, to the present day.[1]

Analysis

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Analyst Dejan Bursać of the Institute for Political Studies argued that the rating SNS received in opinion polls mostly came from Vučić's popularity, citing the high trust in the office of president of Serbia in opinion polls and voters perception of Vučić still being the president of the party. Bojan Vranić, a professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences of University of Belgrade, criticised the lack of turnout numbers in opinion polls and the presentation of party ratings.[2]

Graphical summary

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Local regression chart of poll results from 17 December 2023 to the present day

Poll results

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2024

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Polling firm Date of publication Sample size SNS–led
coalition 		SPS–JS SSP NPS ZLF SRCE DS NADA KP MI–SN Others Lead
NDSS POKS
Ipsos[3] 25 December[a] – 48.3 6.4 5.8 2.4 2.1 1.8 3.0 3.5 0.8 5.2 4.7 16.2[b] 43.3
Faktor Plus[4] 25 December 1,180 51.1 7.6 7.8 4.1 3.0 2.7 2.1 3.8 5.7 5.6 5.0[c] 43.3
Faktor Plus[5] 27 September 2,000 54.0 8.9 8.0 4.6 2.7 2.5 – 4.3 – 5.4 4.6 5.0[d] 39.1
2023 election 17 December – 48.1 6.7 24.3 5.2 – – 22.4 23.8

Scenario polls

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Multiple alliances

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Polling firm Date of publication Sample size SNS–led
coalition 		SPS–JS SSP SRCE NPS DS ZLF NADA MI–SN KP Others Lead
NDSS POKS
NSPM[6] 30 March 2025 – 36.0 6.4 7.1 6.4 5.8 8.2 5.3 24.8[e] 27.8

Two alliances

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In March 2025, Nova srpska politička misao started conducting a scenario poll featuring two joint lists, a SNS–SPS one and a joint opposition list.[7]

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size SNS–SPS,
et al. 		Opposition Others Lead
NSPM[8] 15–25 May 1,050 43.4 56.5 0.0 13.1[f]
NSPM[7] 1–10 March 1,050 44.3 55.7 0.0 11.4[g]

Notes

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  1. ^ The opinion poll was conducted in October 2024.
  2. ^ SRS: 2.0%, VMSZ: 1.6%, EU: 1.6%, PSG: 1.5%, NLS: 1.2%, SDPS: 1.1%, DJB: 0.7%, MI–GiN: 0.6%, SDS: 0.6%, SPP: 0.5%, Dveri: 0.5%, SSZ: 0.4%, PS: 0.4%, Together: 0.4%, SDAS: 0.3%, LSV: 0.2%, Narodna: 0.2%, PUPS: 0.2%, Others: 2.0%
  3. ^ Others: 6.1%, Undecided (excluded): 6.7%
  4. ^ Others: 5.0%, Undecided (excluded): 13.3%
  5. ^ Others: 4.0%, while 20.8% of respondents had stated that they would vote for the opposition
  6. ^ Undecided (excluded): 22.9%
  7. ^ Undecided (excluded): 25.9%

References

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  1. ^ "Serbia: National Assembly". Inter-Parliamentary Union. Archived from the original on 31 December 2022. Retrieved 31 December 2022.
  2. ^ Ilić, Mladen (1 October 2024). "Šta nam govori poslednje istraživanje rejtinga stranaka?" [What does the latest party rating survey tell us?]. Danas (in Serbian). Retrieved 5 October 2024.
  3. ^ "Novo istraživanje Ipsos stratedžik marketinga: SNS na 48 odsto, Vučiću se najviše veruje, značajno raste podrška ulasku u EU" [New survey by Ipsos strategic marketing: SNS at 48 percent, Vučić is the most trusted, support for joining the EU is growing significantly]. Blic (in Serbian). 25 December 2024. Retrieved 2 January 2025.
  4. ^ "Aktuelno – Decembar 2024" [Currently - December 2024]. Faktor Plus (in Serbian). 25 December 2024. Retrieved 2 January 2025.
  5. ^ "Ekskluzivno Ovo su najnoviji rejtinzi političkih stranaka u Srbiji" [Exclusive These are the latest ratings of political parties in Serbia]. Blic (in Serbian). 27 September 2024. Retrieved 28 September 2024.
  6. ^ Jelovac, Jelena (30 March 2025). "Po prvi put od dolaska SNS više građana je protiv vlasti nego što je podržava: Vučić za pet meseci pao za gotovo pet odsto" [For the first time since the arrival of the SNS, more citizens are against the government than they support it: Vučić has fallen by almost five percent in five months]. NOVA portal (in Serbian). Retrieved 30 March 2025.
  7. ^ a b "Srbija, mart 2025. (I)" [Serbia, March 2025 (I)]. Nova srpska politička misao (in Serbian). 14 March 2025. Retrieved 14 March 2025.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  8. ^ "Srbija, maj 2025 - vlast, opozicija, neizjašnjeni" [Serbia, May 2025 - government, opposition, undecided]. Nova srpska politička misao (in Serbian). 11 June 2025. Retrieved 11 June 2025.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
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