2026 United States Senate election in South Carolina
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The 2026 United States Senate election in South Carolina will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of South Carolina. Incumbent four-term Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, who was re-elected in 2020, is running for a fifth term in office.[1]
Background
[edit]South Carolina is generally considered to be a Republican stronghold, having not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1998. Republican nominee Donald Trump won South Carolina in 2020 by 12 percentage points, and in 2024 grew his margin to 18 percentage points. Republicans control every statewide office (except the state's comptroller office), supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature, both U.S. Senate seats, and all but one seat in South Carolina's U.S. House congressional delegation.[2][3]
Senator Lindsey Graham was first elected in 2002, defeating Democrat Alex Sanders by about 10 percentage points. He was re-elected in 2008, 2014, and most recently in 2020 defeating Jamie Harrison by 10 percentage points in what was expected to be a dead heat.[4] In January 2025, he declared that he was running for reelection.
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Lindsey Graham, incumbent U.S. Senator (2003–present)[5]
- Mark Lynch, businessman[6]
- Thomas Murphy, retired Navy hospital corpsman[7]
Filed Paperwork
[edit]- Ethan Holliman[8]
Publicly expressed interest
[edit]- Ralph Norman, U.S. Representative from South Carolina's 5th congressional district (2017–present)[9][5]
Potential
[edit]- Adam Morgan, former state representative from the 20th district (2018–2024) and candidate for South Carolina's 4th congressional district in 2024[10]
- Nancy Mace, U.S. Representative from South Carolina's 1st congressional district (2021–present) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2014[11][12]
Endorsements
[edit]Lindsey Graham
U.S. executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, 45th & 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)[13]
U.S. senators
Statewide officials
- Henry McMaster, governor of South Carolina (2017–present)[10]
- Organizations
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2025 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Lindsey Graham (R) | $15,890,858 | $12,470,960 | $15,911,355 |
| Mark Lynch (R) | $5,086,891 | $9,769 | $5,077,122 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[15] | |||
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Lindsey Graham |
Mark Lynch |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pulse Opinion Research (R)[16][A] | May 15–21, 2025 | 1,062 (LV) | – | 43% | 29% | 5% | 23% |
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Annie Andrews, pediatrician and nominee for South Carolina's 1st congressional district in 2022[17]
- Lee Johnson, engineer[18]
Potential
[edit]- Joe Walsh, U.S. Representative from IL-08 (2011–2013), candidate for President in 2020[19]
Filed paperwork
[edit]- Catherine Fleming Bruce, author and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[20]
- Kyle Freeman[21]
Independents
[edit]Declared
[edit]Publicly expressed interest
[edit]- Robin Tallon, former Democratic U.S. representative from South Carolina's 6th congressional district (1983–1993)[24]
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections[25] | Solid R | February 20, 2025 |
| The Cook Political Report[26] | Solid R | February 13, 2025 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[27] | Safe R | March 12, 2025 |
| Race To The WH[28] | Likely R | April 27, 2025 |
Notes
[edit]- ^ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
Partisan clients
- ^ Poll commissioned by Lynch's campaign
References
[edit]- ^ Connaughton, Kevin (January 14, 2025). "Lindsey Graham announces campaign team, funding for 2026 re-election bid". www.foxcarolina.com. Retrieved January 15, 2025.
- ^ Kenmore, Abraham; Adcox, Seanna (November 6, 2024). "Trump wins SC for 3rd time, on his way to stunning White House victory". SC Daily Gazette. Retrieved December 21, 2024.
- ^ Holdman, Jessica; Kenmore, Abraham (November 6, 2024). "SC Republicans celebrate red wave that gives GOP biggest advantage in 150 years". SC Daily Gazette. Retrieved December 7, 2024.
- ^ Lobosco, Katie (November 4, 2020). "Lindsey Graham defeats Jaime Harrison in South Carolina | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved December 21, 2024.
- ^ a b Atkinson, Mason (January 13, 2025). "Lindsey Graham announces campaign team, funding for 2026 re-election bid". The Post and Courier. Retrieved January 15, 2025.
- ^ Maultsby, Baker (February 5, 2025). "Greenville businessman to take on Graham for Senate seat in 2026 Republican primary". Spartanburg Herald-Journal. Retrieved February 5, 2025.
- ^ Hyslip, Tom (February 23, 2025). "Thomas Murphy Announces Primary Challenge Against Senator Lindsey Graham in 2026 Race". WRHI. Retrieved February 23, 2025.
- ^ Bustos, Joseph (May 14, 2025). "This Upstate Democrat is looking to oust Trump-backed Sen. Lindsey Graham". TheState.com. Retrieved May 23, 2025.
Ethan Holliman, of Conway, also has filed paperwork with the Federal Elections Commission to run as a Republican for the seat and has loaned his campaign $20,000.
- ^ Solender, Andrew (November 27, 2024). "Scoop: A huge wave of House members is eyeing runs for other offices in 2026". Axios. Retrieved November 27, 2024.
- ^ a b c Kinnard, Meg (February 4, 2025). "Sen. Tim Scott and South Carolina's governor will chair Lindsey Graham's reelection bid". Associated Press. Retrieved February 4, 2025.
- ^ Bustos, Joseph (November 14, 2024). "Who might run for South Carolina governor and US senator in 2026? Here are names to watch". The State. Retrieved November 14, 2024.
- ^ Gorman, Reese (December 5, 2024). "Nancy Mace Is Already Eyeing a Run for Governor — Or a Senate Primary". NOTUS. Retrieved January 15, 2025.
- ^ Kayanja, Ian (March 26, 2025). "President Trump endorses Lindsey Graham as senator eyes 2026 reelection bid". WCIV. Retrieved March 27, 2025.
- ^ "- AIPAC Political Portal". candidates.aipacpac.org. Retrieved April 28, 2025.
- ^ "2026 Election United States Senate - South Carolina". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved April 23, 2025.
- ^ @PollTracker2024 (May 27, 2025). "Pulse Opinion Research poll South Carolina Republican Senate primary 2026 (Mark Lynch internal) Lindsay Graham 43% Mark Lynch 29% Undecided 23% 5/15-5/21 LV" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ Bustos, Joseph (May 29, 2025). "This SC pediatrician ran for Congress in 2022. Now she wants to oust Sen. Graham". The State. Retrieved May 29, 2025.
- ^ Bustos, Joseph (May 14, 2025). "This Upstate Democrat is looking to oust Trump-backed Sen. Lindsey Graham". The State. Retrieved May 14, 2025.
- ^ Folks, Will (June 3, 2025). "Former Tea Partier Joins Democratic Party, Heads To South Carolina". FITS News. Retrieved June 3, 2025.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ^ "FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1606714". Federal Elections Commission. Retrieved December 26, 2022.
- ^ "FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1814298". FEC. Retrieved March 30, 2025.
- ^ "FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1875355". FEC. Retrieved March 30, 2025.
- ^ "FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1850754". FEC. Retrieved March 30, 2025.
- ^ Chornobroff, Shaun (April 28, 2025). "32 years after leaving office, a former SC congressman made a million-dollar campaign transfer". SC Daily Gazette. Retrieved April 28, 2025.
- ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 14, 2025.
- ^ "2026 CPR Senate Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 11, 2025.
- ^ "2026 Senate ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved February 13, 2025.
- ^ "2026 Senate Forecast". Race to the WH. Retrieved March 19, 2025.
External links
[edit]- Official campaign websites