Opinion polling for the 2016 Portuguese presidential election

In the run up to the 2016 Portuguese presidential election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading candidate colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

Candidates vote

First round

Graphical summary

Polling

Exit poll

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Rebelo de Sousa	Maria de Belém	Sampaio da Nóvoa	Henrique Neto	Edgar Silva	Marisa Matias	Paulo de Morais	Cândido Ferreira	Vitorino Silva	Jorge Sequeira	Oth/ Und	Lead
			PSD, CDS	Ind.	Ind.	Ind.	PCP	BE	Ind.	Ind.	Ind.	Ind.


Election results	24 Jan 2016	48.7	52.0	4.2	22.9	0.8	3.9	10.1	2.2	0.2	3.2	0.3	—	29.1

UCP–CESOP	24 Jan 2016	31,018	49–54	3–5	22–25	0–2	3–5	9–11	1–3	0–1	2–4	0–1	—	27– 29
Eurosondagem	24 Jan 2016	43,678	50.1–54.9	3.3–4.8	21.1–24.8	0.7–1.4	3.0–4.1	8.8–11.3	1.4–2.5	0.3–0.7	2.6–3.7	0.3–0.7	—	29.0– 30.1
Intercampus	24 Jan 2016	15,481	50.9–55.7	2.9–5.9	19.3–23.3	—	1.9–4.9	8.8–12.4	—	—	—	—	5.5–8.5	31.6– 32.4
Aximage	16–20 Jan 2016	1,301	51.5	9.0	22.6	0.8	5.2	6.6	2.3	0.1	1.8	0.1	—	28.9
Intercampus	14–20 Jan 2016	1,043	51.8	10.1	16.9	2.3	4.6	7.9	2.9	0.5	2.5	0.6	—	34.9
Eurosondagem	14–19 Jan 2016	2,025	55.0	13.3	19.0	1.1	3.7	5.3	2.2	0.1	0.2	0.1	—	36.0
UCP–CESOP	16–17 Jan 2016	3,340	52	8	22	1	3	8	3	0.5	2	0.5	—	30
Consulmark2	11–14 Jan 2016	1,004	53.0	10.5	23.4	1.0	2.5	4.0	3.8	0.1	1.5	0.3	—	29.6
Eurosondagem	7–13 Jan 2016	1,516	54.8	16.3	16.8	1.1	4.0	4.8	1.6	0.2	0.2	0.2	—	29.6
Aximage	2–5 Jan 2016	602	52.9	11.8	16.9	1.0	2.9	2.8	2.9	—	—	—	8.8	36.0
Eurosondagem	16–21 Dec 2015	1,515	52.5	18.1	16.9	1.3	4.7	4.8	1.7	—	—	—	—	34.4
UCP–CESOP	5–6 Dec 2015	1,183	62	14	15	1	3	3	1	—	—	—	1	47
Aximage	28 Nov–2 Dec 2015	605	54.6	13.4	13.2	0.4	1.9	2.4	1.1	—	—	—	13.0	41.2
Eurosondagem	13–18 Nov 2015	1,510	48.0	18.9	16.7	2.2	5.2	6.9	1.1	—	—	—	1.0	29.1
Aximage	31 Oct–4 Nov 2015	603	56.9	13.1	15.3	—	2.1	—	—	—	—	—	12.9	41.6
Aximage	26 Sep–1 Oct 2015	1,387	29.7	14.7	13.0	1.1	10.3 (JS)	—	—	—	—	—	31.2^[1]	8.2
Intercampus	23–30 Sep 2015	1,013	49.3	17.0	10.1	1.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.2^[2]	32.3

Second round

Hypothetical polling

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Rebelo de Sousa	Rui Rio	Santana Lopes	Durão Barroso	António Guterres	António Vitorino	Carvalho da Silva	Sampaio da Nóvoa	Maria de Belém	Jaime Gama
			PSD	PSD	PSD	PSD	PS	PS	Ind.	Ind.	PS	PS

Intercampus	14–20 Jan 2016	1,043	68.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	31.6	—
Intercampus	14–20 Jan 2016	1,043	67.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	33.0	—	—
Eurosondagem	14–19 Jan 2016	2,025	65.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	34.8	—
Eurosondagem	14–19 Jan 2016	2,025	64.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	35.2	—	—
Eurosondagem	7–13 Jan 2016	1,516	63.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	36.3	—
Eurosondagem	7–13 Jan 2016	1,516	63.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	37.0	—	—
Eurosondagem	16–21 Dec 2015	1,515	62.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	37.5	—
Eurosondagem	16–21 Dec 2015	1,515	62.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	37.9	—	—
UCP–CESOP	5–6 Dec 2015	1,183	57	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	17	—
UCP–CESOP	5–6 Dec 2015	1,183	57	—	—	—	—	—	—	17	—	—
Aximage	4–8 Feb 2015	608	65.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	34.1	—
			65.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	34.3
			62.8	—	—	—	—	37.2	—	—	—	—
			—	59.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	40.4	—
			—	67.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	32.3
			—	54.8	—	—	—	45.2	—	—	—	—
			—	—	24.9	—	—	75.1	—	—	—	—
			—	—	35.2	—	—	—	—	—	64.8	—
			—	—	34.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	65.1
Eurosondagem	8–14 Jan 2015	1,010	47.5	—	—	—	52.5	—	—	—	—	—
			—	45.9	—	—	54.1	—	—	—	—	—
			—	—	44.8	—	55.2	—	—	—	—	—
			48.0	—	—	—	—	52.0	—	—	—	—
			—	46.1	—	—	—	53.9	—	—	—	—
			—	—	43.4	—	—	56.6	—	—	—	—
			61.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	38.9	—	—
			—	56.5	—	—	—	—	—	43.5	—	—
			—	—	58.3	—	—	—	—	41.7	—	—
Eurosondagem	17–21 Nov 2014	1,033	—	—	—	39.7	60.3	—	—	—	—	—
			47.4	—	—	—	52.6	—	—	—	—	—
			—	—	41.3	—	58.7	—	—	—	—	—
			—	44.2	—	—	55.8	—	—	—	—	—
			—	—	—	40.7	—	59.3	—	—	—	—
			48.2	—	—	—	—	51.8	—	—	—	—
			—	—	44.5	—	—	55.5	—	—	—	—
			—	47.5	—	—	—	52.5	—	—	—	—
			—	—	—	55.2	—	—	44.8	—	—	—
			64.9	—	—	—	—	—	35.1	—	—	—
			—	—	58.0	—	—	—	42.0	—	—	—
			—	64.8	—	—	—	—	35.2	—	—	—
			—	—	—	69.5	—	—	—	30.5	—	—
			70.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	29.8	—	—
			—	—	65.1	—	—	—	—	34.9	—	—
			—	70.6	—	—	—	—	—	29.4	—	—

Leadership polls

Preferred candidate

Poll results showing public opinion on who would be the best candidate for each political side, are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.

Centre-Right/Right

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Rebelo de Sousa	Rui Rio	Santana Lopes	Durão Barroso	Paulo Portas	Marques Mendes	Assunção Esteves	Leonor Beleza	Ferreira Leite	Paulo de Morais	Oth/ Und	Lead
			PSD	PSD	PSD	PSD	CDS	PSD	PSD	PSD	PSD	Ind.

Aximage	12–16 Jul 2015	607	46.2	36.7	—	6.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	10.6	9.5
Eurosondagem	2–7 Jul 2015	1,025	29.6	24.8	16.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.0	26.7	4.8
Aximage^[3]	3–6 Mar 2015	600	49.8	35.7	5.6	—	—	—	—	—	7.0	—	1.9	14.1
Aximage^[4]	3–6 Mar 2015	600	39.7	40.2	4.8	—	—	—	—	—	8.6	—	6.7	0.5
Aximage	6–9 Dec 2013	609	44.2	32.3	4.2	8.2	—	—	—	4.3	—	—	6.8	11.9
Eurosondagem	30 Oct–5 Nov 2013	1,005	29.3	26.4	13.3	6.9	4.8	2.5	2.1	—	—	—	14.7	2.9
Aximage	5–7 Mar 2012	600	40.0	—	9.3	22.9	—	—	—	8.3	—	—	19.5	17.1

Centre-Left/Left

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	António Costa	António Guterres	José Sócrates	António Vitorino	Carvalho da Silva	Ferro Rodrigues	Sampaio da Nóvoa	Maria de Belém	António José Seguro	Oliveira Martins	Henrique Neto	Oth/ Und	Lead
			PS	PS	PS	PS	Ind.	PS	Ind.	PS	PS	Ind.	PS

Aximage	12–16 Jul 2015	607	—	—	—	—	—	—	25.9	32.4	—	18.1	—	23.7	6.5
Eurosondagem	2–7 Jul 2015	1,025	—	—	—	—	—	—	33.3	25.0	—	—	4.8	36.9	8.3
Aximage^[5]	3–6 Mar 2015	600	—	—	—	39.5	20.0	—	—	25.7	8.8	—	—	6.0	13.8
Aximage^[4]	3–6 Mar 2015	600	—	—	—	42.4	10.7	—	—	21.1	13.4	—	—	12.4	21.3
Aximage	6–9 Dec 2013	609	43.8	27.3	—	—	6.3	—	3.1	10.4	—	—	—	9.1	16.5
Eurosondagem	30 Oct–5 Nov 2013	1,005	26.6	20.9	13.7	10.0	6.5	3.3	2.2	—	—	—	—	16.8	5.7
Aximage	5–7 Mar 2012	600	33.1	25.4	—	—	10.3	—	—	15.0	—	—	—	16.2	7.7

Leadership polls

Approval ratings

The table below lists the evolution of public opinion on the president's performance in office.

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Aníbal Cavaco Silva

			Approve	Disapprove	No opinion	Net
					No opinion	Net
Aximage	7–10 Sep 2011	600	37.6	28.1	34.3	9.5
Eurosondagem	26–30 Aug 2011	1,025	54.1	24.4	21.5	29.7
Eurosondagem	14–19 Jul 2011	1,022	56.8	25.0	18.2	31.8
Aximage	5–8 Jul 2011	600	53.0	21.2	25.8	31.8
Eurosondagem	26–28 Jun 2011	1,010	59.4	26.0	14.6	33.4
Marktest	28–31 May 2011	1,208	44.7	36.7	18.6	8.0
Marktest	9–10 May 2011	805	47.5	36.0	16.5	11.5
Aximage	29 Apr–2 May 2011	600	38.1	37.4	24.5	0.7
Marktest	15–17 Apr 2011	805	35.3	46.6	18.1	11.3
Aximage	28–30 Mar 2011	600	42.3	34.6	23.1	7.7
Eurosondagem	27–30 Mar 2011	1,021	51.4	32.6	16.0	18.8
Marktest	18–23 Mar 2011	805	47.0	33.6	19.4	13.4
Aximage	3–7 Mar 2011	600	50.3	23.7	26.0	26.6
Eurosondagem	23–28 Feb 2011	1,021	54.1	32.6	13.3	21.5
Marktest	17–23 Feb 2011	797	49.4	29.4	21.2	20.0
Aximage	1–3 Feb 2011	600	52.1	28.1	19.8	24.0
Eurosondagem	3–8 Feb 2011	1,025	52.5	32.0	15.5	20.5

References

^ Rui Rio: 21.5
^ Rui Rio: 15.1
^ Only PSD and CDS–PP voters asked.
^ ^a ^b All voters asked.
^ Only PS, BE and CDU voters asked.

External links

ERC - Official publication of polls

[Rio2-1] Rui Rio: 21.5

[Rio1-2] Rui Rio: 15.1

[Right-3] Only PSD and CDS–PP voters asked.

[All-4] All voters asked.

[Left-5] Only PS, BE and CDU voters asked.

[1]

[2]

[3]

[4]

[5]

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