Opinion polling for the 2011 Portuguese legislative election
In the run up to the 2011 Portuguese legislative election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.
The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous legislative election, held on 27 September 2009, to the day the next election was held, on 5 June 2011.
Nationwide polling
[edit]Graphical summary
[edit] | This graph was using the legacy Graph extension, which is no longer supported. It needs to be converted to the new Chart extension. |
Polling
[edit]Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.
Exit poll
| Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | Sample size | 
|
|
|
|
|
O | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 legislative election | 5 Jun 2011 | — | 28.1 74 |
38.7 108 |
11.7 24 |
5.2 8 |
7.9 16 |
8.5 0 |
10.6 |
| CESOP–UCP | 5 Jun 2011 | 28,762 | 26–30 67/77 |
37–42 104/114 |
11–14 22/28 |
5–7 8/11 |
7–9 14/18 |
5–8 0/1 |
11–12 |
| Eurosondagem | 5 Jun 2011 | 42,712 | 25.5– 29.7 69/77 |
38.3– 42.5 102/109 |
11.1– 13.9 22/25 |
4.5– 6.7 7/10 |
6.8– 9.0 15/16 |
– | 12.8 |
| Intercampus | 5 Jun 2011 | 29,636 | 24.4– 28.8 64/78 |
37.7– 42.5 107/121 |
10.1– 13.7 12/28 |
3.8– 7.0 4/12 |
6.2– 9.4 11/20 |
6.6– 9.8 0/1 |
13.3– 13.7 |
| Eurosondagem | 2 Jun 2011 | 520 | 31.0 | 35.5 | 13.0 | 6.3 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 4.5 |
| Aximage | 31 May–2 Jun 2011 | 968 | 29.2 | 37.4 | 12.5 | 6.7 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 8.2 |
| Eurosondagem | 1 Jun 2011 | 507 | 31.1 80/83 |
35.9 91/96 |
13.0 25/28 |
5.9 8/10 |
7.8 15/16 |
6.3 0 |
4.8 |
| Aximage | 29 May–1 Jun 2011 | 1,200 | 30.1 | 36.3 | 12.4 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 6.2 |
| Intercampus | 28 May–1 Jun 2011 | 1,026 | 31.1 | 36.5 | 11.6 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 5.4 |
| Eurosondagem | 31 May 2011 | 503 | 31.3 | 35.4 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 4.1 |
| Marktest | 28–31 May 2011 | 1,208 | 30.1 | 38.5 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 8.4 |
| Eurosondagem | 30 May 2011 | 522 | 32.2 | 35.5 | 12.6 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 3.3 |
| CESOP–UCP | 28–29 May 2011 | 3,963 | 31 78/88 |
36 95/106 |
11 20/24 |
7 10/14 |
8 14/16 |
7 0 |
5 |
| Eurosondagem | 29 May 2011 | 505 | 32.1 | 34.7 | 12.9 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 2.6 |
| Intercampus | 25–29 May 2011 | 1,010 | 32.3 | 37.0 | 12.7 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 4.7 |
| Eurosondagem | 27 May 2011 | 521 | 32.4 | 33.7 | 13.2 | 6.4 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 1.3 |
| Eurosondagem | 26 May 2011 | 511 | 32.3 | 33.9 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 1.6 |
| Intercampus | 21–26 May 2011 | 1,015 | 34.1 | 35.8 | 11.3 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.7 |
| Eurosondagem | 25 May 2011 | 515 | 32.5 | 33.6 | 12.8 | 6.5 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 1.1 |
| Eurosondagem | 24 May 2011 | 510 | 32.0 | 33.7 | 13.2 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 1.7 |
| Eurosondagem | 23 May 2011 | 525 | 32.6 | 33.1 | 13.7 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 0.5 |
| CESOP–UCP | 21–22 May 2011 | 1,490 | 36 | 36 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 3 | Tie |
| Intercampus | 18–22 May 2011 | 1,024 | 33.2 | 39.6 | 12.1 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 6.4 |
| Aximage | 14–18 May 2011 | 750 | 29.5 | 31.1 | 12.9 | 5.2 | 7.3 | 14.0 | 1.6 |
| Intercampus | 11–15 May 2011 | 1,025 | 35.4 | 36.1 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| Intercampus | 7–12 May 2011 | 1,029 | 36.8 | 33.9 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 2.4 | 2.9 |
| Marktest | 9–10 May 2011 | 805 | 33.4 | 39.7 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 6.3 |
| Intercampus | 4–8 May 2011 | 1,020 | 35.1 | 36.2 | 10.9 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 |
| Intercampus | 2–5 May 2011 | 1,009 | 34.8 | 37.0 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 2.8 | 2.2 |
| Eurosondagem | 28 Apr–3 May 2011 | 2,048 | 32.5 | 35.8 | 11.1 | 6.6 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 3.3 |
| Aximage | 29 Apr–2 May 2011 | 600 | 28.3 | 31.5 | 11.2 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 12.0 | 3.2 |
| CESOP–UCP | 30 Apr–1 May 2011 | 1,370 | 36 | 34 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 2 |
| Eurosondagem | 14–19 Apr 2011 | 1,025 | 32.7 | 36.3 | 11.3 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 3.6 |
| Marktest | 15–17 Apr 2011 | 805 | 36.1 | 35.3 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 0.8 |
| Intercampus | 8–10 Apr 2011 | 917 | 33.1 | 38.7 | 9.4 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 5.6 |
| CESOP–UCP | 2–3 Apr 2011 | 1,288 | 33 | 39 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 6 |
| Aximage | 28–30 Mar 2011 | 600 | 28.4 | 34.8 | 10.8 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 11.0 | 6.4 |
| Eurosondagem | 27–30 Mar 2011 | 1,021 | 30.4 | 37.3 | 10.7 | 7.7 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 6.9 |
| Intercampus | 24–26 Mar 2011 | 805 | 32.8 | 42.2 | 8.7 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 1.3 | 9.4 |
| Marktest | 18–23 Mar 2011 | 805 | 24.5 | 46.7 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 22.2 |
| Aximage | 3–7 Mar 2011 | 600 | 27.9 | 37.9 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 10.7 | 8.1 | 10.0 |
| Eurosondagem | 23–28 Feb 2011 | 1,021 | 30.6 | 36.9 | 9.9 | 7.7 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 6.3 |
| Marktest | 17–23 Feb 2011 | 797 | 29.1 | 47.8 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 18.7 |
| Eurosondagem | 3–8 Feb 2011 | 1,025 | 29.3 | 36.3 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 7.0 |
| Aximage | 1–3 Feb 2011 | 600 | 27.8 | 37.8 | 9.5 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 10.0 |
| Eurosondagem | 19–21 Jan 2011 | 1,548 | 30.3 | 37.4 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 7.1 |
| Intercampus | 16–19 Jan 2011 | 1,004 | 30.8 | 36.8 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 12.2 | 6.0 |
| Eurosondagem | 5–11 Jan 2011 | 1,010 | 29.6 | 37.3 | 10.1 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 7.7 |
| Aximage | 3–6 Jan 2011 | 600 | 25.4 | 38.3 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 9.9 | 10.1 | 12.9 |
| Intercampus | 10–15 Dec 2010 | 607 | 30.1 | 41.6 | 7.7 | 10.7 | 8.8 | 1.1 | 11.5 |
| Aximage | 5–7 Dec 2010 | 600 | 27.2 | 39.8 | 8.8 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 12.6 |
| Eurosondagem | 2–7 Dec 2010 | 1,020 | 30.3 | 36.2 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 5.9 |
| Marktest | 16–19 Nov 2010 | 804 | 26.9 | 44.3 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 17.4 |
| Intercampus | 12–17 Nov 2010 | 609 | 30.5 | 39.2 | 8.5 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 1.1 | 8.7 |
| Eurosondagem | 4–9 Nov 2010 | 1,025 | 30.0 | 36.9 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 6.9 |
| Aximage | 26–29 Oct 2010 | 600 | 26.5 | 35.2 | 9.1 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 11.0 | 8.7 |
| CESOP–UCP | 23–25 Oct 2010 | 1,140 | 26 | 40 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 14 |
| Marktest | 19–24 Oct 2010 | 807 | 25.1 | 42.0 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 16.9 |
| Eurosondagem | 6–12 Oct 2010 | 1,021 | 35.3 | 35.3 | 8.0 | 7.8 | 8.4 | 5.2 | Tie |
| Intercampus | 4–6 Oct 2010 | 609 | 32.0 | 35.2 | 9.1 | 10.6 | 11.1 | 2.0 | 3.2 |
| Aximage | 1–4 Oct 2010 | 600 | 31.7 | 30.6 | 10.2 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 11.3 | 1.1 |
| Marktest | 14–17 Sep 2010 | 804 | 35.7 | 38.0 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 2.3 |
| Aximage | 6–9 Sep 2010 | 600 | 33.8 | 32.1 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 1.7 |
| Eurosondagem | 1–7 Sep 2010 | 1,035 | 36.0 | 35.8 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 0.2 |
| Eurosondagem | 28 Jul–2 Aug 2010 | 1,031 | 35.0 | 36.0 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 1.0 |
| Marktest | 20–26 Jul 2010 | 802 | 33.3 | 37.3 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 4.0 |
| Intercampus | 16–19 Jul 2010 | 603 | 34.4 | 39.2 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 2.0 | 4.8 |
| Euroexpansão | 8–11 Jul 2010 | 1,504 | 31.7 | 41.0 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 10.7 | 9.3 |
| Eurosondagem | 1–6 Jul 2010 | 1,035 | 33.7 | 36.2 | 9.6 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 2.5 |
| Aximage | 1–4 Jul 2010 | 600 | 30.6 | 34.9 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 4.3 |
| CESOP–UCP | 19–21 Jun 2010 | 1,179 | 34 | 37 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 3 |
| Marktest | 15–20 Jun 2010 | 804 | 24.1 | 47.7 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 23.6 |
| Eurosondagem | 2–8 Jun 2010 | 1,025 | 34.8 | 34.9 | 10.1 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 0.1 |
| Aximage | 1–7 Jun 2010 | 600 | 30.5 | 31.6 | 7.4 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 10.9 | 1.1 |
| Marktest | 18–20 May 2010 | 804 | 27.6 | 43.9 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 16.3 |
| Eurosondagem | 13–18 May 2010 | 1,024 | 36.2 | 33.0 | 11.3 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 3.2 |
| Aximage | 4–7 May 2010 | 600 | 30.2 | 31.5 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 10.4 | 11.1 | 1.3 |
| Intercampus | 27–30 Apr 2010 | 803 | 35.8 | 41.6 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 1.2 | 5.8 |
| Marktest | 20–25 Apr 2010 | 800 | 34.0 | 39.8 | 4.5 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 5.8 |
| Eurosondagem | 8–13 Apr 2010 | 1,020 | 36.0 | 28.5 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 7.5 |
| Aximage | 5–8 Apr 2010 | 600 | 32.2 | 30.4 | 10.8 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 1.8 |
| Marktest | 16–21 Mar 2010 | 806 | 35.6 | 30.8 | 9.9 | 11.0 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 4.8 |
| CESOP–UCP | 6–9 Mar 2010 | 1,148 | 41 | 33 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 8 |
| Aximage | 5–9 Mar 2010 | 600 | 34.0 | 25.1 | 11.5 | 8.9 | 7.4 | 13.1 | 8.9 |
| Eurosondagem | 4–9 Mar 2010 | 1,019 | 36.9 | 26.2 | 14.8 | 8.8 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 10.7 |
| Intercampus | 23–27 Feb 2010 | 1,015 | 40.4 | 34.4 | 7.8 | 10.1 | 6.3 | 1.0 | 6.0 |
| Marktest | 16–21 Feb 2010 | 804 | 35.9 | 30.9 | 9.5 | 10.6 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 5.0 |
| Aximage | 10–13 Feb 2010 | 600 | 32.4 | 26.3 | 10.7 | 9.2 | 8.3 | 13.1 | 6.1 |
| Eurosondagem | 4–9 Feb 2010 | 1,025 | 38.1 | 26.9 | 13.6 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 11.2 |
| Aximage | 2–5 Feb 2010 | 600 | 33.8 | 24.8 | 12.1 | 8.6 | 8.7 | 12.0 | 9.0 |
| Marktest | 19–23 Jan 2010 | 803 | 40.5 | 29.2 | 10.2 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 11.3 |
| Eurosondagem | 7–12 Jan 2010 | 1,010 | 38.0 | 27.4 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 10.6 |
| Aximage | 6–11 Jan 2010 | 600 | 33.4 | 26.5 | 11.7 | 10.0 | 8.2 | 10.2 | 6.9 |
| Aximage | 7–10 Dec 2009 | 600 | 32.5 | 24.4 | 12.0 | 10.5 | 7.7 | 12.9 | 8.1 |
| Eurosondagem | 25 Nov–1 Dec 2009 | 1,031 | 38.5 | 26.9 | 12.7 | 9.2 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 11.6 |
| Marktest | 17–19 Nov 2009 | 808 | 41.7 | 25.6 | 12.1 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 16.1 |
| Aximage | 3–6 Nov 2009 | 600 | 35.2 | 27.3 | 10.3 | 8.8 | 7.8 | 10.6 | 7.9 |
| Eurosondagem | 29 Oct–3 Nov 2009 | 1,030 | 38.8 | 27.5 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 11.3 |
| Marktest | 20–24 Oct 2009 | 806 | 42.9 | 23.7 | 12.5 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 19.2 |
| Aximage | 12–16 Oct 2009 | 600 | 35.3 | 25.4 | 9.7 | 10.8 | 6.0 | 12.8 | 9.9 |
| 2009 local elections | 11 Oct 2009 | — | 37.7 (100) |
38.8 (102) |
3.1 (2) |
3.0 (4) |
9.7 (22) |
7.7 (0) |
1.1 |
| 2009 legislative election | 27 Sep 2009 | — | 36.6 97 |
29.1 81 |
10.4 21 |
9.8 16 |
7.9 15 |
6.2 0 |
7.5 |
Leadership polls
[edit]Preferred prime minister
[edit]Poll results showing public opinion on who would make the best prime minister are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.
Sócrates vs Passos Coelho
[edit]| Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | José Sócrates |
Passos Coelho |
Neither | Both | No opinion |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aximage | 31 May–2 Jun 2011 | 24.3 | 39.6 | 25.8 | — | 10.3 | 15.3 |
| Aximage | 29 Apr–2 May 2011 | 36.2 | 36.8 | 27.0 | 0.6 | ||
| Aximage | 28–30 Mar 2011 | 35.2 | 36.3 | 28.5 | 1.1 | ||
| Aximage | 3–7 Mar 2011 | 34.5 | 35.8 | 29.7 | 1.3 | ||
| Aximage | 1–3 Feb 2011 | 34.3 | 36.9 | 28.8 | 2.6 | ||
| Aximage | 3–6 Jan 2011 | 29.5 | 38.4 | 32.1 | 8.9 | ||
| Aximage | 5–7 Dec 2010 | 31.6 | 38.6 | 29.8 | 7.0 | ||
| Aximage | 26–29 Oct 2010 | 28.4 | 38.8 | 27.1 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 10.4 |
| Aximage | 1–4 Oct 2010 | 33.7 | 37.2 | 22.0 | 2.1 | 5.0 | 3.5 |
| Aximage | 6–9 Sep 2010 | 31.8 | 38.5 | 21.8 | 1.8 | 6.1 | 6.7 |
| Aximage | 1–4 Jul 2010 | 29.8 | 45.0 | 16.7 | 2.4 | 6.1 | 15.2 |
| Aximage | 1–7 Jun 2010 | 31.4 | 44.6 | 16.1 | 1.5 | 6.4 | 13.2 |
| Aximage | 4–7 May 2010 | 41.6 | 41.3 | 12.1 | 0.0 | 4.9 | 0.3 |
| Aximage | 5–8 Apr 2010 | 35.9 | 34.7 | 13.7 | 1.2 | 14.5 | 1.2 |
Cabinet approval/disapproval ratings
[edit]Poll results showing public opinion on the performance of the Government are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.
| Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | Sample size | José Sócrates' cabinet | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Approve | Disapprove | Neither | No opinion | Net | |||
| CESOP–UCP | 21–22 May 2011 | 1,490 | 19 | 77 | — | 4 | 58 |
| CESOP–UCP | 30 Apr–1 May 2011 | 1,370 | 21 | 74 | — | 5 | 53 |
| Eurosondagem | 27–30 Mar 2011 | 1,021 | 18.0 | 43.9 | 28.2 | 9.9 | 15.7 |
| CESOP–UCP | 2–3 Apr 2011 | 1,288 | 19 | 74 | — | 7 | 55 |
| Eurosondagem | 23–28 Feb 2011 | 1,021 | 18.8 | 43.5 | 26.8 | 10.9 | 16.7 |
| Eurosondagem | 3–8 Feb 2011 | 1,025 | 18.0 | 44.2 | 27.0 | 10.8 | 17.2 |
| Eurosondagem | 5–11 Jan 2011 | 1,010 | 19.0 | 43.8 | 26.8 | 10.4 | 17.0 |
| Eurosondagem | 2–7 Dec 2010 | 1,032 | 19.4 | 42.0 | 29.4 | 9.2 | 12.6 |
| Eurosondagem | 4–9 Nov 2010 | 1,025 | 19.1 | 41.0 | 30.0 | 9.9 | 11.0 |
| CESOP–UCP | 23–25 Oct 2010 | 1,140 | 12 | 80 | — | 8 | 68 |
| Eurosondagem | 6–12 Oct 2010 | 1,021 | 19.6 | 40.2 | 29.4 | 10.8 | 10.8 |
| Eurosondagem | 1–7 Sep 2010 | 1,035 | 21.4 | 39.6 | 28.3 | 10.7 | 11.3 |
| Eurosondagem | 28 Jun–2 Aug 2010 | 1,031 | 20.4 | 40.8 | 28.0 | 10.8 | 12.8 |
| Eurosondagem | 1–6 Jul 2010 | 1,035 | 21.3 | 40.6 | 27.5 | 10.6 | 13.1 |
| CESOP–UCP | 19–21 Jun 2010 | 1,179 | 20 | 72 | — | 8 | 52 |
| Eurosondagem | 2–8 Jun 2010 | 1,025 | 21.5 | 40.0 | 28.7 | 9.8 | 11.3 |
| Eurosondagem | 13–18 May 2010 | 1,024 | 21.7 | 39.1 | 28.5 | 10.7 | 10.6 |
| Eurosondagem | 8–13 Apr 2010 | 1,020 | 23.1 | 38.8 | 26.3 | 11.8 | 12.5 |
| CESOP–UCP | 6–9 Mar 2010 | 1,148 | 28 | 64 | — | 8 | 36 |
| Eurosondagem | 4–9 Mar 2010 | 1,019 | 24.3 | 37.7 | 27.1 | 10.9 | 10.8 |
| Eurosondagem | 4–9 Feb 2010 | 1,025 | 21.7 | 39.0 | 26.5 | 12.8 | 12.5 |
| Eurosondagem | 7–12 Jan 2010 | 1,010 | 20.8 | 39.6 | 25.0 | 14.6 | 14.6 |
| Eurosondagem | 25 Nov–1 Dec 2009 | 1,031 | 19.4 | 39.8 | 27.6 | 13.2 | 12.2 |
