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User:HX2046/Greenhouse gas emissions by China

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Overall data

[edit]
China greenhouse emissions by type of greenhouse gas from 1990 - 2016
Since 2000, rising CO2 emissions in China and the rest of world have eclipsed the output of the United States and Europe.[1]

Since 2006, China has been the world's largest emitter of CO2 annually. As of 2023, it had the 34th highest greenhouse gas emissions per capita.[2] In 2023, China produced 35% of global CO2 emissions, according to the International Energy Agency.[3] According to estimates provided by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, China's carbon dioxide emissions in 2006 amounted to 6.2 billion tons, and the United States' co-production in the same year was 5.8 billion tons. In 2006, China's carbon dioxide emissions were 8 percent higher than America's, the agency said.[4]

The per person CO2 emissions in China are rising but still much lower than in the United States.[1]

In 2019, China is estimated to have emitted 27% of the world's greenhouse gases, followed by the US with 11%, then India with 6.6%.[5] By 2020, China produced 64% to 66% of global emissions for the two potent greenhouse gases of tetrafluoromethane and hexafluoroethane, according to a study by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.[6]

Impact of 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak

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Further information: COVID-19 pandemic in mainland China

A temporary slowdown in manufacturing, construction, transportation, and overall economic activity during the beginning of the 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak reduced China's greenhouse gas emissions by "about a quarter," as reported in February 2020.[7][8] Nonetheless, for the year April 1, 2020 – March 31, 2021, China's CO2 emissions reached a record high: nearly 12 billion metric tons. Additionally, China's carbon emissions during the first quarter of 2021 were higher than in the first quarters of both 2019 and 2020.[9] Temporary reductions in carbon emissions due to lockdowns and initial economic relief efforts have limited long-term consequences, while the future direction of fiscal stimulus plays a more significant role in influencing long-term carbon emissions.[10]

[edit]

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) CO₂ Emissions in 2022 report, China’s carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in 2022 were approximately 11.477 billion metric tons.[11] In addition, the proportion of non fossil energy consumption in China reached 17.5% in 2022, an increase of about 6 percentage points from 2015, indicating positive progress in energy transformation.[12] China experienced the largest increase in emissions at approximately 565 million tonnes in 2023, exacerbated by a historic decrease in hydropower, pushing its per capita emissions 15% higher than those in advanced economies, according to the International Energy Agency.[13] Although the total emissions remain high, the carbon emission intensity per unit of GDP continues to decline, indicating a gradual decoupling between economic growth and carbon emissions.[14]

In 2024, China recorded a 3% decrease in greenhouse gas emissions compared to the previous year. This development suggests that emissions might have peaked sooner than the 2030 target initially set. The reduction was largely attributed to an expansion in wind and solar power capacities, which largely covered the increased demand for electricity, coupled with a downturn in the property sector that resulted in lower emissions from industries like steel and cement manufacturing. However, several challenges remain, including the technical difficulties of integrating solar energy into the existing power grid and a continued dependence on coal, which experienced a 2% increase in use in 2023.[15]


Mitigation

[edit]
See also: Climate change in China § Mitigation, and Climate policy of China
The annual amount of coal plant capacity being retired increased into the mid-2010s.[16] However, the rate of retirement has since stalled,[16] and global coal phase-out is not yet compatible with the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement.[17]
In parallel with retirement of some coal plant capacity, other coal plants are still being added, though the annual amount of added capacity has been declining since the 2010s.[18]

China is implementing some policies to mitigate climate change, most of which aim to constrain coal consumption. The Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of China set goals and committed to peak CO2 emissions by 2030 in the latest, and increase the use of non-fossil fuel energy carriers, taking up 20% of the total primary energy supply.[19] If China successfully reached NDC's targets, the GHG emissions level would be 12.8–14.3 GtCO2e in 2030, reducing 64% to 70% of emission intensity below 2005 levels. China has surpassed solar deployment and wind energy deployment targets for 2020.[20][21]

A 2011 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory report predicted that Chinese CO2 emissions will peak around 2030. This is because in many areas such as infrastructure, housing, commercial building, appliances per household, fertilizers, and cement production a maximum intensity will be reached and replacement will take the place of new demand. The 2030 emissions peak also became China's pledge at the Paris COP21 summit. Carbon emission intensity may decrease as policies become strengthened and more effectively implemented, including by more effective financial incentives, and as less carbon intensive energy supplies are deployed. In a "baseline" computer model CO2 emissions were predicted to peak in 2033; in an "Accelerated Improvement Scenario" they were predicted to peak in 2027.[22] China also established 10 binding environmental targets in its Thirteenth Five-Year Plan (2016–2020). These include an aim to reduce carbon intensity by 18% by 2020, as well as a binding target for renewable energy at 15% of total energy, raised from under 12% in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan. According to BloombergNEF the levelized cost of electricity from new large-scale solar power has been below existing coal-fired power stations since 2021.[23]

Policy

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China ratified the Kyoto Protocol as a non-Annex B party without binding targets, and ratified the Paris Agreement to fight climate change.[24] In 2020, China's fourteenth five-year plan contained key climate- and energy-related ideas for energy transition and global efforts to tackle climate change.[25]

Domestic policy and laws

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Forest Law of the People's Republic of China (1998)
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The aim of this law was to conserve and rationally exploit forest resources. It accelerated territorial afforestation and cultivation while also ensuring forest product management, production, and supply in order to meet socialist construction requirements.[26]

Energy Conservation Law (2007)
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The aim of this law was to strengthen energy conservation, especially for key energy-using institutions, as well as to encourage energy efficiency and energy-saving technology. The legislation allowed the government to promote and facilitate the use of renewable energy in a variety of applications.[27]

Renewable Energy Act (2009)
[edit]

This Act outlines the responsibilities of the government, businesses, and other users in the production and use of renewable energy. It includes policies and targets relating to mandatory grid connectivity, market control legislation, differentiated pricing, special funds, and tax reliefs, as well as a target of 15 percent renewable energy by 2020.[28]

12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015)
[edit]
See also: 12th Five-Year Plan (People's Republic of China)

The 12th Five-Year Plan sought to make domestic consumption and development more economically equitable and environmentally friendly. It also shifted the economy's focus away from heavy industry and resource-intensive manufacturing and into a more consumer-driven, resource-efficient economy.[29]

The National Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation (2013)
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The strategy established clear guidelines and principles for adapting to and mitigating climate change. It includes interventions such as early-warning identification and information-sharing systems at the national and regional levels, an ocean disaster monitoring system, and coastal restoration to protect water supplies, reduce soil erosion, and improve disaster prevention.[30]

National Plan For Tackling Climate Change (2014-2020)
[edit]

The National Plan For Tackling Climate Change is a national law that includes prevention, adaptation, scientific study, and public awareness. By 2020, China plans to reduce carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 40-45 percent compared to 2005 levels, raise the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to 15%, and increase forest area and stock volume by 40 million hectares and 1.3 million m3, respectively, compared to 2005 levels.[31]

Energy Development Strategy Action Plan (2014-2020)
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This plan aimed to reduce China's high energy consumption per unit of GDP through a series of steps and mandatory goals, encouraging more productive, self-sufficient, renewable, and creative energy production and consumption.[32]

Law on the Prevention and Control of Atmospheric Pollution (2016)
[edit]

The aim of this law is to preserve and improve the environment, prevent and regulate air pollution, protect public health, advance ecological civilization, and promote economic and social growth that is sustainable. It demands that robust emission control initiatives be implemented against the pollution caused by the burning of coal, industrial production, motor vehicles and vessels, dust as well as agricultural activities.[33]

13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020)
[edit]
See also: Five-year plans of China

The 13th Five Year Plan published the strategy and pathway for China's development during 2016-2020 and set specific environmental and productivity goals. Peak goals for carbon emissions, energy use, and water use were established in the 13th Five Year Plan. It also stated objectives for increasing industry productivity, removing obsolete or overcapacity production facilities, increasing renewable energy production, and improving green infrastructure.[34]

Emissions trading

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The Chinese Ministry of Finance originally proposed a carbon tax in 2010, to come into effect in 2012 or 2013.[35][36] The tax was never passed; in February 2021 the government instead set up a carbon trading scheme.[37][38][39]

This section is an excerpt from Chinese national carbon trading scheme.[edit]

The Chinese national carbon trading scheme is an intensity-based trading system for carbon dioxide emissions by China, which started operating in 2021.[40][41] This emission trading scheme (ETS) creates a carbon market where emitters can buy and sell emission credits. The scheme will allow carbon emitters to reduce emissions or purchase emission allowances from other emitters. Through this scheme, China will limit emissions while allowing economic freedom for emitters. China is the largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHG) and many major Chinese cities had severe air pollution through the 2010s,[42] with the situation improving in the 2020s.[43] The scheme is run by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment,[40] which eventually plans to limit emissions from six of China's top carbon dioxide emitting industries.[44] In 2021 it started with its power plants, and covers 40% of China's emissions, which is 15% of world emissions.[45] China was able to gain experience in drafting and implementation of an ETS plan from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), where China was part of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).[42] China's national ETS is the largest of its kind,[45] and will help China achieve its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement.[42] In July 2021, permits were being handed out for free rather than auctioned, and the market price per tonne of CO2e was around RMB 50, roughly half of the EU ETS and the UK ETS but better compared to the US, which has no formal cap-and-trade program.[45]

As of 2023, the cumulative trading volume of the carbon market has exceeded 200 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, with a transaction amount exceeding 10 billion yuan. In addition, China has made significant progress in the field of green finance, with green bond issuance ranking among the top in the world, providing financial support for clean energy and low-carbon technologies.[46]

China also has a policy of forestry carbon credits.[47] Forestry carbon credits are based on the measurement of forest growth, which is converted into carbon emission reduction measurements by government ecological and forestry offices.[47] Owners of forests (who are typically rural families or rural villages) receive carbon tickets (碳票; tan piao) which are tradeable securities.[47]

Vehicles

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Vehicles account for around 8% of the heat-trapping gases released annually in China.[48]

Eco-Cities

[edit]
See also: Eco-Cities in China

The Chinese government has strategically promoted Eco-Cities in China as a policy measure for addressing rising greenhouse gas emissions resulting from China's rapid urbanization and industrialization.[49] These projects seek to blend green technologies and sustainable infrastructure to build large, environmentally friendly cities nationwide.[50] The government has launched three programs to incentivize cities to undertake eco-city construction,[51] encouraging hundreds of cities to announce plans for eco-city developments.[52]

Energy efficiency

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Energy efficiency improvements have somewhat offset increases in energy output as China continues to develop. Since 2006, the Chinese government has increased export taxes on energy-inefficient industries, reduced import tariffs on certain non-renewable energy resources, and closed down a number of inefficient power and industrial plants. In 2009, for example, for every two new plants (in terms of energy generation capacity) built, one inefficient plant was closed. China is unique in its closing of so many inefficient plants.[53]

Renewable energy

[edit]
Main article: Renewable energy in China

China is the world's leading investor in wind turbines and other renewable energy technologies[54] and produces more wind turbines and solar panels each year than any other country.[55]

China is the world leader in renewable energy deployment, with more than twice the ability of any other nation. China accounted for 43% of global renewable energy capacity additions in 2018.[56] For decades, hydropower has been a major source of energy in China. In the last ten years, wind and solar power have risen significantly. Renewables accounted for approximately a quarter of China's electricity generation in 2018, with 18% coming from hydropower, 5% from wind, and 3% from solar.[56] As of the end of 2022, China's installed wind power capacity reached 365 gigawatts (GW), and its installed photovoltaic power capacity exceeded 393 GW, both ranking first in the world.[57] In addition, China continues to expand its scale in hydropower, nuclear power, and biomass energy, providing important support for reducing dependence on fossil fuels and lowering greenhouse gas emissions.

Nuclear power is planned to be rapidly expanded.[58]

China has also dictated energy standards for lighting and gas kilometrage for cars.[59]

Public Participation and Awareness

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In recent years, the environmental awareness of the Chinese public has significantly increased, and more and more people are participating in low-carbon living and environmental protection actions. For example, green lifestyles such as shared bicycles, electric cars, and garbage sorting are gradually becoming popular. In addition, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and civil society groups have played an active role in promoting environmental education and advocating for emission reduction policies. According to a survey by the Chinese Ministry of Ecology and Environment, about 70% of respondents expressed willingness to make personal efforts to reduce carbon emissions in 2022.[60] Furthermore, the World Resources Institute (WRI) published a report in 2023 titled "Public Participation in Climate Action: Lessons from China," which examines how public engagement and grassroots initiatives are driving climate action in China.[61]

Targets

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The targets laid out in China's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) in 2016 will likely be met, but are not enough to properly combat global warming.[62] China also established 10 binding environmental targets in its Thirteenth Five-Year Plan (2016–2020). These include an aim to reduce carbon intensity by 18% by 2020, as well as a binding target for renewable energy at 15% of total energy, raised from under 12% in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan. The Thirteenth Five-Year Plan also set, for the first time, a cap on total energy use from all sources: no more than 5 billion tons of coal through 2020.[63]

Future Outlook

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Looking ahead, China still faces many challenges in achieving its carbon neutrality goals, including energy structure adjustment, technological innovation, and regional coordinated development. However, with the increase in policy intensity, the improvement of market mechanisms, and the enhancement of public awareness, China is expected to play a more active role in global climate governance and provide Chinese solutions for global green transformation.[64]

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