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Draft:NHL draft combine

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The NHL draft combine, also called the NHL scouting combine, is an annual event for prospective players of the National Hockey League (NHL). Taking place before the NHL entry draft, prospects are invited to the combine by the NHL Central Scouting Bureau which manages the event. At the combine, prospects participate in medical testing, fitness testing, and interviews. The combine is hosted in Buffalo, New York; it previously took place near Toronto.

History

[edit]

In 1994, the NHL Central Scouting Bureau held the first draft combine with 77 forwards, 49 defencemen, and 6 goaltenders.[1] It was hosted in Mississauga, Ontario, Canada, near Toronto.[2] In Mississauga, combine events were held in a hotel and the International Centre conference center, with fitness tests taking place in the ballroom and interviews being held in hotel rooms.[3][4][5] Early draft combines received little media attention.[1]

After the death of Central Scouting director E. J. McGuire in 2011, Dan Marr took on the role and began overseeing the combine.[6] In 2015, the combine moved to First Niagara Center and Harborcenter in Buffalo, New York, United States, after the Buffalo Sabres submitted a bid in 2014.[7][2][4][8] One of the key points of the Sabres' bid was the ability to implement on-ice testing,[7] though this was not implemented. The NHL initially agreed to allow the Sabres to host the combine for two years,[9] and the combine has continued to be hosted in Buffalo.

In 2020 and 2021, the combine was cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic, though many teams held virtual interviews.[10] In 2023, Central Scouting introduced an app for players to access their profile and schedule.[11]

As one of few events bringing together executives from all NHL teams, the combine is also an opportunity for general managers to begin arranging possible trades for the upcoming draft.[12][13] With the "decentralized" 2025 draft—which had all teams attending the draft virtually—the combine became a more active site of these discussions.[13][14]

Selection

[edit]

[15]

Each year, top prospects are invited to the combine. While the exact number of players invited has changed over time, the NHL Central Scouting Bureau usually invites about 100 prospects each year.[16][17] Central Scouting publishes rankings for players eligible for the upcoming draft; players invited to the combine are all ranked.[18] In 2015, 120 players were invited to the combine, with about 75 being chosen by Central Scouting and the rest being chosen by a vote of NHL teams and scouting directors.[8] Dan Marr, director of Central Scouting, has said: "Our goal is to have players at the combine that the teams want to interview."[8] Due to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russian prospects playing in Russia have not been invited to the combine.[19][20]

Structure

[edit]

[21][22][23][8][24]

details on buffalo[9]

agility and equilibrium added in 2007[25]

led by Gledhill; then administered by Exact Sports beginning in 2007?[26][27][28]

"Teams can conduct 1-on-1 interviews with prospects at KeyBank Center from June 2-6. The medical examinations will take place June 4, the Maximal VO2 test on June 6, and the remaining seven of the 11 fitness tests will be at HarborCenter on June 7 (standing height/wingspan, horizontal jump, force plate vertical jumps, bench press, pro agility test, pull-ups, Wingate Cycle Ergometer test)."[18]

"In 2007, new tests were added: the hexagon test for agility, balance test and a 'standing squat' test (vertical jump with a pause). Also grip strength fatigue and wingspan were also first measured. In 2013 a 'Functional Movement Screen' was introduced. In 2014, overhand pull-ups, single leg squats (both legs) and pro agility tests replaced push-ups, the push-pull station and the seated medicine ball throw. In 2014 there were four body composition tests and 11 individual fitness tests. In 2015, a new format and testing was implemented as a result of a combine review. The fitness testing assessments were moved into an arena offering an increased viewing area, better sight lines and live result monitors, allowing for the testing to be captured on video."[29][not reliable]

"One of Marr's duties tied to the combine is leading a committee that includes two NHL general managers, two assistant GMs and two scouting directors. The strength and conditioning coaches from around the NHL also have a committee that reviews the combine. Those groups are charged with tweaking the event to make it as effective as possible."[30]

Medical tests

[edit]

[31]

[32][not RS; do not use]

2007 details[33]

Physical examinations are intended to detect persistent injuries, history of concussions, and cardiovascular issues such as cardiomyopathy.[34] Echocardiograms were introduced in 2009.[35]

In 2007, the combine began conducting psychological testing of prospects.[26] Conducted on a computer in a supervised quiet room, the test took approximately an hour to complete. The first part was a personality test, looking at traits such as mental toughness and coachability.[26] The second part is a cognitive test, measuring "spatial awareness, decision speed, decision accuracy, concentration, and rates of mental fatigue." To allow for comparison of scores under different conditions, an abbreviated version of the cognitive test was administered immediately after prospects' fitness testing.[26]

psychological testing: apparently 2-part on a computer with ~220 questions (introduced 2007?), but unable to find RS[36][37][38]

psychological testing[39]

"The Combine's final component is the medical examination and questioning, and hand/eye coordination tests, which are done immediately prior to the fitness testing. The medical tests are not extensive and have changed little over the past few years, so many teams require additional information from the prospects that they are interested in."[28]

Fitness tests

[edit]

2015 summary[40] note: this says measurements are to nearest .2 cm

[41][42][43]

[44]

description of tests[45]

[46][not RS; do not use]

From 1994 to 2014, the fitness testing was overseen by kinesiologist Norman Gledhill of York University.[7][41][find more recent cite?/who oversees in Buffalo?][found no details about Gledhill overseeing after 2014]

y-balance[47] added in 2015[48][9]

changes to tests[5][8]

power test using a weighted ball[3]

Functional movement screen

[edit]

The functional movement screen (FMS) was introduced to the combine in 2013.[49][50] In the functional movement screen, prospects complete seven tests of their mobility and stability to determine functional limitations or asymmetries. The seven tests evaluate the prospects' deep squat, hurdle step, inline lunge, shoulder mobility, active straight leg raise, trunk stability pushup, and rotary stability. For each test, they receive a score, 0–3, which accumulates to a final score out of 21.[51][47] Lower scores may indicate risk of future injury.[49] In the 2013 combine, the mean total score was 15.2. The highest-scoring category was the trunk stability push-up, with 68% receiving a 3; the lowest-scoring category was the rotary stability task, with 1% receiving a 3.[50]

Prospects may not participate in the FMS test due to preexisting acute musculoskeletal injury; prospects may also not be able to complete the test due to musculoskeletal injury.[50]

Grip strength

[edit]

Grip strength of both hands is tested with a hand grip dynamometer.[51]

Aerobic fitness (VO2 max)

[edit]

Prospects' aerobic fitness is measured via VO2 max.[51] Wearing a heart rate monitor and a mask to monitor his oxygen utilization, the prospect must maintain a minimum number[quantify] of revolutions per minute (RPM).[52] Resistance increases over the course of the test. The test concludes when the prospect fails to maintain the requisite RPM.[47] Prospects may feel sick or vomit after the test.[3]

Body composition

[edit]

Prospects' height (barefoot) and wingspan (middle finger tip to middle finger tip) are measured to the nearest quarter inch.[51][47] Body fat percentage is also measured using calipers.[51][53] Weight is measured to the nearest 0.1 pound.[53]

Jumping

[edit]

Prospects are measured on their horizontal and vertical jumping abilities.

In the standing long jump (also called the horizontal jump), prospects begin standing still and jump forward as far as they can. They are allowed to use their arms to assist the movement.[51][47] The standing long jump was added in 1998.[54]

At the jump station, a force plate measures prospects' direction, strength, and timing in three vertical jump types: vertical jump (with arm swing), vertical jump (without arm swing; hands on hips), and squat jump (squat start; hands on hips). Prospects are allowed three attempts for each jump type, and their highest jump is recorded.[51] The force plate was introduced in 2018.[9][55]

Bench press

[edit]

Prospects bench press 50% of their body weight, performing three repetitions. Prospects start with their arms fully extended, after which they lower the barbell to their chest, pause, and push it up as quickly as possible. The power (watts/kilogram) and velocity of each attempt is recorded using a linear positional transducer for velocity based training.[51][56] The prospect's best score, measured in watts/kilogram, is reported.[56]

Previously, the test measured the maximum amount of repetitions a 150-pound bench press at a pace of 25 repetitions per minute.[53][57][better source needed] Beginning in 2015, the test measured the maximum amount of repetitions at 70–80% of the prospect's body weight.[57][better source needed] The test's current format, measuring velocity at 50% body weight, began in 2018.[58]

Agility (shuttle run)

[edit]

Prospects complete two 5–10–5-yard (5–9–5 m) shuttle runs to evaluate their agility—one to the left, and one to the right. Also called pro-agility, this test has been conducted since 2014.[51][59] Prospects' agility was previously tested via the hexagon agility test,[60] in which prospects hopped with feet together around a hexagon in each direction, with their time to completion being recorded.[61]

Pull-up

[edit]

Maintaining correct technique, the prospects complete as many pull-ups as they can.[51] Added in 2014,[47][62] the test is intended to assess prospects' forearm and upper arm flexor muscular strength, endurance, and core stability.[63]

Anaerobic fitness (Wingate test)

[edit]

Prospects' anaerobic fitness is measured via the Wingate Cycle Ergometer Test, which is conducted on a stationary bicycle.[51] Considered "one of the most notorious and feared tests of the combine",[52][47] the Wingate test is intended to measure a prospect's "explosive" leg power and fatigue.[47][64] Prospects receive strong verbal encouragement while completing the test.[65][66] Prospects may feel sick or vomit after the test.[52][67][68]

Prior to the 2018 combine, prospects had to cycle for 30 seconds, with increasing resistance.[52] Prospects would warm up for two minutes at low resistance, then sprint for 30 seconds with resistance of 7.5%[65] or 9%[53] of their body weight.

Beginning in 2018, the total testing period was 45 seconds: 10 seconds of cycling followed by alternating 5-second intervals of rest and cycling.[52][58] The test is preceded by a two-minute warm-up period.[44][69] Revolutions are recorded for the 5-second cycling intervals; and "power output is calculated for both the peak five second period and the 30 second duration".[44][69] The resistance remains constant throughout the test.[66] For the 2023 combine, resistance was set at 9% of the prospect's body weight.[66]

Interviews

[edit]

Interviews take place in 15–20 minute blocks.[70][71][35][13] Teams vary in their approach to interviews. Interviewers may include the general manager, scouts, advisors, and psychologists.[70][13] Sometimes, the team's president or owner will participate.[52] The NHL can provide interpreters for players who are not comfortable with their English-speaking abilities.[70]

Prospects are trained on how to answer questions, often by their agents.[72][70][28][73] Interviews often include a set of general questions about the prospect's history, style of play, and personality.[70][74] European players may be asked about their contract status in their home league.[74] Prospects may be asked to analyze a video of their own game, or of the team's.[74][13][70] Questions are usually centered around prospects' on-ice performance, and interviewers may try to ask difficult questions to see how players react when challenged.[52][70][72] Some teams, such as the Montreal Canadiens, have asked unusual questions like: "What kind of animal would you be?"[70][75][76][77][13]

Some players also take part in dinner meetings; teams usually take 3–4 players to dinner during the combine week.[78][13] In 2018, the Detroit Red Wings took about 20 players to dinner.[79]

"Preparation now includes custom psychological assessments, tailored interview strategies, and scripted hypotheticals designed to disarm rehearsed responses. Mental profiling is a major factor. Clubs bring in experts to formulate the right type of questions that will neutralize biases and predict leadership qualities. The creation of data banks that feature the right type of questions to elicit the type of answers that will paint the clearest picture."[73]

measure character[80][72]

Brent Flahr, Flyers AGM: [81]

  • "Certain guys are going to get grilled more than others, players that we have concerns about, or staff members have concerns about, and whatnot. And you get some information still that we need, whether injury-related or off-ice or training methods, whatever, all the background we need. They’re coached pretty good, too. You’ve got to break them down a little bit to show some personality." [81]
  • "Q: Are you looking to see if a player fits the culture, then, in these meetings at the combine? A: For sure, I think we do. That’s what our guys do. They talk to coaches, but you can’t always believe them because they’ll never say a bad thing about their players. So you find information from trainers or radio guys or wherever, that’s where you get the real dirt, and from other players. But yeah, whenever you’re building a team, you need good people, and vice versa, it doesn’t matter how good a player is, you bring in a guy and he doesn’t fit socially, or just personality-wise or effort-wise, it’s not going to work. So those are the things you try to steer away from."[81]

Assessment outside of the combine

[edit]

Canadiens European combine for uninvited players[20][82]

[83][84][85]

[86]

Prospects may be individually invited to interview further or conduct more fitness testing; these meetings may include skating, which is not part of the combine.[27][35]

Teams may request additional medical information from prospects they are interested in.[28] Teams may request that prospects complete additional psychological testing.[80]

Teams may ask prospects to complete personality assessment forms, and they may psychoanalyze prospects through these forms or via interviews run by psychologists.[5] Psychological testing may also take place outside of the combine week.[87][80] Daniel Tkaczuk reported that at his draft combine in 1997, some teams conducted extra physical testing, provided puzzles or IQ tests, and conducted personality tests, and one team conducted x-ray scans on him.[88]

"Throughout the season, area scouts will interview prospects or send questionnaires. When teams select who they'd like to interview at the combine, having base knowledge of the player removes the need for small talk."[13]

Outside of the combine, regional scouts may also interview prospects.[78]

Reception/discussion?

[edit]
  • personality assessments[89]
  • blog post reviews of studies (check studies themselves)[90][91]

Predictive power

[edit]

NHL players usually reach peak performance by their mid–late 20s, so teams must attempt to project the development of teenage prospects.[92]

A 2009 study created a composite index based on draft combine performance, finding that a score in the 90th percentile "is associated with 72% and 60% probability of playing in the NHL within 4 years after the draft for defensemen and forwards, respectively".[25]

The relative importance of off-ice testing differs by prospect position; a 2008 study concluded that "emphasis on anthropometry should be used when comparing elite-level forwards, whereas peak anaerobic power and fatigue rate are more useful for differentiating between defense."[93]

"Standing long jump was identified as a significant predictor variable for forwards and defense and could be a useful surrogate for assessing overall hockey potential."[93]

predictive power[89][94][95] lit review[96]

  • In an analysis of fitness testing at the 1994–2007 combines, researchers found that "VO2 max and peak leg power were the most common predictors of successfully transitioning to the NHL, getting playing time, and contributing offensively" for prospects' first seasons in the league.[92] They also found that high upper body strength (as measured by push-ups, bench press repetitions, isometric push strength, and grip strength) is associated with lower career performance.[92]
    • "emphasizing the role of aerobic fitness and explosive power in elite hockey."[92]
    • "Discussions with team scouts anecdotally suggest young players who are less physically developed but have a well-developed hockey skill set are sometimes chosen with the belief that when the player “fills out” they will have greater career performance. Indeed, NHL players tend to reach peak performance by their mid–late 20s,18 7–10 years after these data were collected. "[92]
  • Prospects in attendance at the combine are not a random sample; they are selected for their high performance.[92][25]

Player position

[edit]

Skaters and goaltenders are subject to the same tests at the combine.[98] The testing of goaltenders receives relatively less attention than the testing of skaters; tests at the combine are not "specifically designed to assess actions usually performed by goaltenders".[98] A comparison of strength, power, and flexibility performance across multiple studies found that "forwards demonstrated a significantly better performance in all of the parameters followed by defenders, and finally, goaltenders, except for flexibility, which showed the reverse order".[98] Goaltenders tend to have lower VO2 max results than skaters.[98]

Measurements of body composition may be expected to vary by position. Forwards and goaltenders tend to have similar body mass, with defencemen being heavier.[98] Defencemen are also slightly taller than forwards, and have a higher body mass index.[45] Goaltenders have a higher body fat percentage than skaters; this "may be explained by the lower cardiovascular demands of this player position".[98]

Testing battery

[edit]

"That’s why teams are so invested in the results of the Pro-Agility test, the Vo2 max, and Wingate tests."[73]

On-ice testing

[edit]

The combine has been criticized for lack of on-ice tests by some researchers,[94][60] fans,[30] and scouts and general managers.[4] E. J. McGuire and Dan Marr, each of whom have served as director of NHL Central Scouting, said that some prospects may be unfit for on-ice testing due to fatigue or injuryfrom the recent IIHF World U18 Championship or Memorial Cup playoffs, and many top prospects have already been observed skating in-person or on video.[17][30] Additionally, Marr said that there are logistical concerns for on-ice testing, including equipment, staffing, insurance, and scheduling issues.[30] In 2019, Marr said that there was consensus among NHL teams that on-ice testing was not necessary for the combine.[30]

  • NHL Central Scouting director Dan Marr[30]
    • "There likely is not as much value in testing things like a player's shot or passing ability in a static environment compared with skating. There's also no great way to test a player's hockey sense, which is one of the primary attributes teams care about. All of those things are best observed in game situations."[30]

off-ice testing[94]

  • "Playing ice hockey requires specific physiological attributes. For example, the ability to accelerate rapidly for short periods of time (2 to 3 seconds), change direction quickly, and perform repeated bouts of moderate- to high-intensity work are key components to successful performance.18 Therefore, an assessment protocol consisting entirely of off-ice tests measuring general physiological parameters could be a flaw of the Combines. A testing battery designed specifically for ice hockey should include an evaluation of linear acceleration and speed over short distances, agility, and repeated anaerobic capacity and fatigue using on-ice tests.8 It is recommended that sports scientists work in conjunction with players, coaches, scouts, and managers to develop valid on-ice tests that can reliably measure hockey-specific performance."[94]
  • off-ice vs. on-ice agility[60]
  • "An example of one such test is the vertical jump, which is used to calculate leg power and has repeatedly been shown to be related to skating abilities"[93]

Evaluation of prospects based on combine performance

[edit]

Scouts and executives may value perceived effort, rather than prospects' actual performance.[99][100][74] Prospects may drop in rankings due to a lack of demonstrated "competitive drive" in fitness tests;[101] some less-known prospects may benefit from good results that help them gain recognition.[73] Jason Bukala, former scouting director for the Florida Panthers, said that fitness testing does not significantly impact prospects' rankings.[74]

In the modern combine, interview performance is generally seen by teams as more consequential than fitness testing.[101][77][73] According to Arizona Coyotes amateur scouting director Tim Bernhardt, some teams disproportionately value player interviews.[70] Players with strong ties to the NHL (such as through an NHL-player father or uncle) may be more confident and therefore perform better in interviews.[70]

"These days, teams care less about who can lift the most weight and more about who can handle the most pressure. Who can lead a room, thinks [about] the game on a deeper level, and adapt to the NHL's increasingly mental and emotional demands." "As more teams began to realize that physically dominant prospects were far from assured to translate that edge into NHL success, the value of the interviews began to grow."[73]

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[edit]
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