Draft:Lars Tvede

Lars Tvede
Born	(1957-02-26)26 February 1957 Holte, Denmark
Nationality	Danish
Occupation(s)	Author, serial entrepreneur, venture capitalist, financial investor, futurist
Spouse	Pernille Vermund (m. 2019–2021)
Children	Sophie Trelles-Tvede, Louise Tvede
Website	www.larstvede.com

Lars Tvede

Lars Tvede (born 26 February 1957) is a Danish author, serial entrepreneur, venture capitalist, financial investor, and futurist. His professional focus areas span primarily finance, technology start-ups, and thought leadership, particularly in areas of market psychology, economic cycles, and long-term societal and technological trends ("supertrends"). Tvede has founded or co-founded numerous companies, several of which have received international awards. He is a prolific author whose books on finance, entrepreneurship, marketing, positive psychology, society, technology, the future, and his personal life have been translated into 11 languages and have sold approximately one million copies worldwide. His work has earned him recognition, including being listed among the world's leading marketing strategy thinkers in The Guru Guide to Marketing and receiving the Adam Smith Award for contributions to political discussion. His more recent ventures include co-founding the innovation mapping company Supertrends AG. This won the Top Hot Swiss Startup award in 2024. He has also co-founded the Atlas Global Macro hedge fund. He also co-founded the venture fund Nordic Eye, which made more than 100% cash distribution within its first year, earning it an Investor of the Year award in 2018.

Early Life and Education

Lars Tvede was born on 26 February 1957, in Holte, Denmark. He grew up in a 116-square-meter row house. His father worked as a chemical engineer, while his mother was initially a homemaker before pursuing studies at Roskilde University (RUC) to become a social worker. His parents divorced when he was 14 years old, after which his father relocated to Chile. From a young age, Tvede took on various jobs such as dog walking, bicycle delivery, shop assistant, laborer, nursing home assistant, and dairy worker to earn money. A significant formative experience occurred when Tvede was 17. Having just completed his second year of gymnasium (upper secondary school), he embarked on an extensive journey through South America with three friends, using his father's home in Chile as a base. The group traveled through Chile, Argentina, Peru, Uruguay, Brazil, and Bolivia on a strict budget of three US dollars per day, funded by Tvede's savings from jobs like working at a nursing home for 9 Danish kroner per hour. Tvede has described this trip, undertaken without modern conveniences like mobile phones or credit cards and requiring significant self-reliance to navigate challenges, as life-changing, fundamentally altering his mentality from one accustomed to a structured life planned by others. An earlier sailing trip to Greenland at age nine also left a lasting impression. Academically, Tvede pursued two degrees concurrently after high school. He earned a Master of Science (M.Sc.) in Engineering, specifically Cand.Lact. (Dairy/Food Technology), from the Royal Veterinary and Agricultural University (Kongelige Veterinær- og Landbohøjskole), now part of the University of Copenhagen's Faculty of Life Sciences, completing his studies by 1981. He later returned to his alma mater as an external lecturer and examiner. Simultaneously, he obtained a Bachelor's degree in International Commerce (HD in Foreign Trade) from Copenhagen Business School (CBS), finishing by 1982. Even during his studies, Tvede was actively involved in business. He founded two companies while completing his dual degrees and participated in various business projects. At the age of 19, he and a friend purchased a vineyard, in Andalusia, Spain. This purchase was financed through earnings from work combined with profits from stock market investments. Later in his career, Tvede added a professional certification as a derivatives trader from the National Futures Association (NFA) in Chicago.

Career

Lars Tvede's career spans several decades and encompasses distinct phases, moving from traditional finance into technology entrepreneurship and later into venture capital and large-scale trend analysis.

Finance and Investment Banking (approx. late 1980s - mid 1990s)

Following the completion of his dual degrees, Tvede dedicated approximately 11 years to the finance sector, working in portfolio management and investment banking. This period provided him with foundational experience in financial markets, derivatives trading, and asset management. In year 2000, he also founded Beluga, which sources describe as a successful financial trading company.

Transition to Technology and Entrepreneurship (mid-1990s onwards)

In the mid-1990s, Tvede pivoted his focus towards the rapidly growing high-tech and telecommunications industries. This shift coincided with the burgeoning internet era, co-founding several technology companies. These ventures included activities in satellite communication, internet services, and mobile technology. Notable examples include The Fantastic Corporation, a broadband internet company founded in 1996, and CarryQuote, a financial information provider founded later, which won the Red Herring Global Top 100 award and the IMD Startup Competition in 2009. Several of Tvede's technology ventures achieved international recognition, garnering awards such as the Red Herring Global 100 Award, the Bully Award, the IMD Swiss Start-up Award, and the Wall Street Journal Europe Innovation Award.

Venture Capital and Fund Management (approx. 2005 onwards)

Around 2005, Tvede returned more formally to the financial industry, taking on roles such as general partner and fund manager at the Swiss hedge fund company ProValue. In 2016, he co-founded Nordic Eye, a Nordic-American venture capital fund. Tvede served as a Strategic Partner and Member of the Investor Board. Nordic Eye reported impressive early performance, generating over 100% cash return in its first full year (2017) and achieving a 203% Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for that year, distributing more than the total investor commitments. The fund won the "Investor of the Year Award" in Denmark in 2018. Building on his focus on future trends, Tvede co-founded Supertrends AG and the associated Supertrends Institute AG in 2018-2019. These were later merged. Supertrends AG aims to map and analyze global innovation – past, present, and future – utilizing AI, text mining, statistics, and crowdsourcing. Its mission is to provide businesses and individuals with clear insights into emerging technologies and trends to aid strategic decision-making. Supertrends involves leading futurists and strategy coaches, offering a global futures learning platform. The company was recognized as one of the hottest startups in Switzerland in 2024. In 2021, Tvede launched Atlas Global Macro, a hedge fund based in Switzerland with an international focus, where he serves as Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager. The fund was designed to implement Tvede's personal investment strategy, developed over decades. However, Atlas Global Macro faced significant challenges and controversies related to its performance, particularly relating to its ill-timed exposure to Russian assets prior to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine (detailed further in Section 7).

Authorship and Public Profile

Parallel to his entrepreneurial and investment activities, Lars Tvede has built a significant public profile as a prolific author and speaker. He has written or co-authored 17 books covering a wide array of subjects, including finance, market psychology, life hacks, business cycles, macroeconomics, entrepreneurship, marketing strategy, future trends, technology, creativity, societal development, libertarianism, and his own life story. His works have achieved considerable international reach, being translated into 11 languages and totalling around one million copies sold world-wide. Tvede is a frequent commentator in the media and a sought-after keynote speaker. He has delivered hundreds of presentations to major corporations like Novo Nordisk, McKinsey & Company, Credit Suisse, Lombard Odier, Bloomberg China, and Deloitte, as well as investment groups and leadership forums. He has also appeared as a guest host on CNBC and delivered several TEDx Talks. He maintains an active online presence, noted in one source as having over 80,000 followers on social media. Politically, Tvede is identified as a liberal commentator and has contributed writings to platforms like Forbes, Børsen, Berlingske, Aktionæren, Altinget.dk. His ability to communicate complex concepts in an accessible manner is a key component of his influence. In 2021, he was a finalist for Denmark's Fonsmark Prize, recognized for his significant contributions to the political discourse. The award, named after Henning Fonsmark, honors individuals who have notably influenced the country's ideological debates.​

Investment Philosophy and Economic Views

Lars Tvede's investment philosophy integrates macro analysis, behavioral finance, and contrarian value seeking, underpinned by a strong belief in identifying long-term structural trends.

Core Tenets:

• Identifying "Supertrends": A central pillar of Tvede's approach is the identification and analysis of "supertrends" – major, long-term shifts in demographics, technology, economics, environment, and lifestyles. He argues that understanding these underlying drivers is paramount for successful long-term investing, more so than focusing solely on short-term projections. His two books both called Supertrends, but with different subtitles, are both dedicated to this concept, outlining expected global evolution and how to profit from associated opportunities.
• Understanding Business Cycles: Tvede places significant emphasis on the history, theory, and investment implications of business cycles. His book Business Cycles explores this topic over 300 years, detailing different cycle types (driven by inventories, capital spending, and property) and how various asset classes behave throughout them. He contends that cycles are inherent, rooted in human psychology, and persist despite economic management efforts. A key strategy derived from this is rotating investments between different asset classes (stocks, bonds, commodities, real estate, etc.) based on the prevailing phase of the business cycle.
• Leveraging Market Psychology: Tvede recognizes that financial markets are heavily influenced by human psychology, including emotions, cognitive biases, and herd behavior. His book The Psychology of Finance delves into how these psychological factors drive price movements, sometimes independently of fundamental value. He advises investors to be aware of these psychological pitfalls to avoid making irrational decisions.
• Contrarian Value Investing: Tvede often seeks investment opportunities in assets or markets that are currently unpopular or undervalued but possess long-term potential. This contrarian approach involves buying when others are fearful or dismissive. Examples cited include investing in Greek banks following their crisis and, more controversially, investing significantly in the Russian market in the years 2000-2001 (which went very well) but also prior to the 2022 invasion, which didn't. He describes buying "vanvittigt upopulære" (insanely unpopular) things he believes represent good long-term value.
• Diversification and Asset Allocation (for general investors): While his own fund management might involve concentrated bets, Tvede advises individual, non-expert investors to prioritize diversification. He recommends spreading investments across different asset classes (stocks, bonds, real estate) and geographies, potentially using Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) for broad market exposure. He also suggests establishing a permanent asset allocation strategy and rebalancing periodically.
• Long-Term Perspective: Tvede consistently emphasizes the importance of a long-term investment horizon. He acknowledges that strategies based on long-term trends may underperform in the short term and require patience. He cites historical data, such as "Siegel's constant," suggesting that equities deliver substantial real returns (around 6.5-7% annually) over extended periods, rewarding long-term, risk-tolerant investors.

Specific Views and Predictions:

Tvede frequently comments on specific market and technological developments:

• He is notably bullish on Artificial Intelligence (AI), viewing it as a transformative "supertrend" with colossal potential, while also acknowledging its significant energy demands. He sees AI and quantum computing potentially leading to superintelligence.
• Linked to AI's energy needs and the green transition, he predicts a resurgence of nuclear power and significant investment opportunities in the energy sector, potentially mirroring the scale of the earlier BRIK investment boom. He also highlights the increased demand for industrial metals driven by green technologies like electric vehicles.
• In market terms, he has predicted shifts between investment styles, such as a rotation from growth stocks to value stocks. He has expressed views on currency markets (predicting dollar weakness), precious metals (seeing a "flight from cash" benefiting gold, silver, and platinum), and specific country markets like Greece and Russia.
• He views economic crises, bubbles, and crashes as inherent and recurring parts of the economic landscape. He interprets actions by central banks, such as maintaining low or negative real interest rates, as attempts to manage government debt and stimulate employment, which in turn pushes capital towards assets like stocks, real estate, and precious metals.

Political Philosophy:

Tvede's broader economic views align with libertarian and to some degree conservative principles. He has advocated for policies similar to those in Switzerland, such as lower taxes, decentralization, and increased privatization in the public sector. His book Gåsen med de gyldne æg (The Goose with the Golden Eggs) explicitly discusses the concept of libertarianism.

Publications

Lars Tvede has authored or co-authored 17 books covering a diverse range of subjects related to his expertise in finance, economics, technology, and societal trends. His works have achieved significant international reach, being translated into 11 languages and published in over 70 editions and around a million copies sold globally. His writing frequently explores themes such as:

• Finance and Investment: Including market psychology, behavioral finance, business cycle analysis, investment strategies, market history, and the nature of financial bubbles and crashes.
• Future Trends and Technology: Focusing on identifying long-term "supertrends," analyzing technological advancements like AI and biotechnology, demographic shifts, and forecasting future developments.
• Society and Creativity: Examining the drivers of societal progress, innovation, creativity, economic development, the history of civilizations, and political philosophies like liberalism.
• Entrepreneurship: Providing insights into starting and building businesses.
• Marketing: Discussing marketing strategies relevant to the modern economy.

Tvede's books have generally received positive reception from media outlets like Politiken, Berlingske Tidende, and The Economist, as well as from political figures such as former Danish Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen and Conservative politician Brian Mikkelsen, and financial industry professionals. The Psychology of Finance was lauded as the "best book of the year" by the publication Arbejdslederen, and The Creative Society received praise from across the political spectrum for its analysis of innovation and societal momentum.

Selected Bibliography

The following table provides an overview of some of Lars Tvede's notable publications, based on the available sources. This list may not be exhaustive.

Selected Bibliography

Title	Year(s) Published	Key Themes	Notes	Snippets
Business Cycles (various editions, e.g., From John Law to Chaos Theory; History, Theory and Investment Reality)	1997, 2006, 2012, 2025	Economics, Business Cycles, Market History, Investment Strategy	Explores 300+ years of economic fluctuations, theory, forecasting, and asset behavior during cycles.
The Psychology of Finance (various editions)	1999, later	Behavioral Finance, Market Psychology, Investment Strategy	Examines how psychology drives financial market movements. Praised as "best book of the year" by Arbejdslederen.
Marketing Strategies for the New Economy	2001	Marketing, Business Strategy	Addresses marketing in the internet age.
The Creative Society / Det kreative samfund	2003 (orig.), 2014 (Danish ed.)	Society, Innovation, Creativity, History, Economics	Analyzes factors behind societal creativity and economic momentum. Praised across political spectrum.
Supertrends (various editions, e.g., Winning Investment Strategies for the Coming Decades; 50 Things You Need to Know About the Future)	2010, 2019	Future Studies, Technology, Demographics, Economics, Investment Strategy	Identifies major long-term global trends and their investment implications.
Børshaj (Shark of the Stock Market)	2010	Autobiography, Entrepreneurship, Investment	Details Tvede's journey as an entrepreneur and investor.
Kriser, Krak og Kaviar (Crises, Crashes, and Caviar)	2015	Economics, Finance, Market Cycles, Investment Strategy	Discusses market instability and predicting cycles.
Gåsen med de gyldne æg (The Goose with the Golden Eggs)	2016	Political Philosophy, Liberalism, Economics	Explores the principles and implications of liberalism.
Iværksætter / Entrepreneur	2017 / 2018	Entrepreneurship, Business Startups	Co-authored with Mads Faurholt, sharing lessons from starting businesses.
Bobler, bullshit og børsfest (Bubbles, Bullshit, and Stock Market Party)	2020	Finance, Investment Strategy, Market Psychology	Guide to stock market investing, mixing advice with personal anecdotes. Timed around the COVID-19 market fluctuations.
From Malthus to Mars	2021	Future Studies, Technology, Leadership, Personal Development	Co-authored with Nicolai Chen Nielsen, exploring the future world and how to navigate it.
Bagklog (Hindsight)	2023	Life Advice, Personal Development	Co-authored with Lærke Trærup Knudsen, offering "hacks for adult life".
En vild historie, du endnu ikke har hørt (A Wild Story You Haven't Heard Yet)	2025	Artificial Intelligence, Future Studies, Technology	Co-authored with Daniel Käfer and Jacob Bock Axelsen, focusing on AI and its impact.

Awards and Recognition

Throughout his career, Lars Tvede has received several awards and forms of recognition for his work in business, marketing, and public discourse:

• Marketing Strategy: He was listed in The Guru Guide to Marketing as one of the world's 62 leading thinkers in marketing strategy.
• Innovation Awards (for co-founded companies): Technology companies co-founded by Tvede have won multiple international awards, including the Red Herring Global 100 Award, the Bully Award, the IMD Swiss Start-up Award, and the Wall Street Journal Europe Innovation Award. CarryQuote, a company he co-founded, won the Red Herring Award and the IMD Startup Competition in 2009.
• Venture Capital: Nordic Eye, the venture capital fund he co-founded, won the "Investor of the Year Award" in Denmark in 2018.
• Public Discourse: Tvede received the Adam Smith Award from the Danish libertarian society Libertas for his contributions to political discussion. He was also a finalist for the Fonsmark Award in 2021, another Danish award related to public debate.

Controversies and Criticism

Lars Tvede's career, particularly his venture into hedge fund management with Atlas Global Macro, has not been without controversy and criticism.

Atlas Global Macro Performance and Strategy:

• Significant Underperformance: Launched in 2021, the Atlas Global Macro fund experienced substantial losses shortly after its inception, significantly underperforming global market benchmarks. Sources reported losses of 38% to 42% within the first two years, as the fund`s significant investments in Russia were written down to zero.
• Investor Dissatisfaction: The poor performance led to public criticism from investors on social media platforms, questioning the fund's strategy and management. Tvede acknowledged the poor start, describing it as "unexpectedly hard" and "frustrating," and admitted to periods of "fjumring" (fumbling or messing around) in the markets. Investor outflows were noted, though Tvede stated they represented a small percentage of total assets initially.
• Impact of Russian Investments: A major factor contributing to the losses was the fund's significant exposure to Russian assets. Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, these assets were written down to zero by the fund's administrator, severely impacting returns. Tvede acknowledged the impact but maintained a long-term perspective.
• Closing access for new investors: Upon writing the Russian assets down to zero, the fund terminated access for new investors in order to avoid that these could buy into the Russian assets at zero cost. A later plan involved creating a separate fund for new investors to avoid this issue.

It is important to note that while some sources mention Tvede's association with Elon Musk or political commentary , the provided snippets do not contain specific controversies directly involving Tvede related to these topics beyond his general liberal stance and brief marriage to a right-wing politician.

Personal Life

Lars Tvede is a Danish citizen but has resided in Switzerland for over three decades. He lives primarily in Zug, a location known for its thriving business community and low taxes, and also maintains a second home in the Swiss ski resort of Verbier. Tvede has been married previously and has two daughters from that marriage. His elder daughter, Sophie Trelles-Tvede, followed in his entrepreneurial footsteps, founding a successful hair accessory company (invisibobble) while still a university student, achieving significant growth and recognition, including being named in "25 and Under in Northern Europe" list by the Nordic Business Report and in the Forbes' "30 under 30 Europe" list. His younger daughter, Louise, was reported in 2019 to be studying business and management. From 2019 to 2021, Tvede was married to Pernille Vermund, the then-leader of the Danish political party Nye Borgerlige (New Right). They married in May 2019 during the Danish general election campaign. Tvede reportedly proposed over the phone while on his boat in Spain. The couple cited the challenges of living in different countries (Tvede in Switzerland, Vermund in Denmark) with demanding careers and family responsibilities, exacerbated by pandemic travel restrictions, as reasons for their separation in July 2021. Tvede expressed support for Vermund's political career before and during their marriage. While married, Vermund used the surname Tvede. Tvede himself has expressed alignment with some of Nye Borgerlige's policies, particularly advocating for lower taxes and privatization, drawing parallels with Switzerland. Tvede's personal interests include skiing, primarily in the Swiss Alps around Verbier, and sailing. His passion for sailing dates back to childhood trips and includes extensive experience navigating various waters, including the Mediterranean, Caribbean, and Galapagos. He has owned several motorboats based in the Mediterranean.. He has also over a number of years also collected Italian sports cars (having owned several Ferraris, Bugattis and Mercedes models, among others) and wine. Tvede has stated that he aims to integrate his business and personal life, not distinguishing sharply between work and pleasure. He values time highly and employs an administration firm to handle mail and banking matters efficiently.

Conclusion

Lars Tvede stands out as a multifaceted Danish figure whose career has successfully bridged the worlds of finance, technology entrepreneurship, authorship, and futurism. He has also displayed a somewhat unusual combination of intellectual skills via his elaborate writings, as well as in business and entrepreneurship. Residing in Switzerland, Tvede remains an active commentator and investor, continuing to shape discussions on finance, innovation, and the future through his writings, public appearances, and business ventures like Supertrends AG.