Draft:Cyclone Errol (2025)
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Last edited by Vida0007 (talk | contribs) 3 days ago. (Update) |
 Errol at its peak intensity on 16 April | |
| Meteorological history | |
|---|---|
| Formed | 9 April 2025 |
| Dissipated | 18 April 2025 |
| Category 4 severe tropical cyclone | |
| 10-minute sustained (BOM) | |
| Highest winds | 185 km/h (115 mph) |
| Lowest pressure | 945 hPa (mbar); 27.91 inHg |
| Category 5-equivalent tropical cyclone | |
| 1-minute sustained (SSHWS/JTWC) | |
| Highest winds | 260 km/h (160 mph) |
| Lowest pressure | 919 hPa (mbar); 27.14 inHg |
| Overall effects | |
| Fatalities | None |
| Damage | None |
| Areas affected | Indonesia (Maluku), Kimberley |
Part of the 2024–25 Australian region cyclone season | |
Severe Tropical Cyclone Errol was a powerful tropical cyclone that impacted the Kimberley region of Western Australia in mid-April 2025. The twenty-third tropical low, eleventh tropical cyclone, and eighth severe tropical cyclone of the 2024–25 Australian region cyclone season, Errol originated as a tropical low in the Arafura Sea, assisted by an equatorial Rossby wave.
Meteorological history
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Tropical storm (39–73 mph, 63–118 km/h)
Category 1 (74–95 mph, 119–153 km/h)
Category 2 (96–110 mph, 154–177 km/h)
Category 3 (111–129 mph, 178–208 km/h)
Category 4 (130–156 mph, 209–251 km/h)
Category 5 (≥157 mph, ≥252 km/h)
Unknown
Extratropical cyclone, remnant low, tropical disturbance, or monsoon depressionA tropical low, initially designated 29U formed on 9 April in the Arafura Sea, assisted by an Equatorial Rossby wave. Infrared imagery and a microwave image showed a broad and disorganized low-level circulation with flaring convection dislocated to the south. Analysis had shown a moderate environment for development with low to moderate wind shear of 20–35 km/h (10–20 knots), weak upper-level outflow and warm sea surface temperatures of 30–31°C. Global ensemble and deterministic model guidance is in relatively good agreement with a southwestward track and gradual intensification over the next 24 hours, and was forecasted to move in a westerly direction while remaining north of the Australian coast.
Currently, Errol is located 524 km northwest of Broome, Australia, and has tracked southwestward at 7 km/h (4 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 14.3 meters (47 feet). Errol is currently drifting southward in a weak steering pattern caused by a break in the subtropical ridge to the south ahead of an approaching deep upper-level trough. Over the next 12 to 24 hours, the system will turn sharply to the southeast along the western side of a small upper-level anticyclone over Cape Talbot that rapidly weakens and moves equatorward. Thereafter the primary steering influence becomes the deep trough to the southwest which will pull Errol along towards the southeast, embedded in the deep northwesterly flow ahead of the trough. The system is forecast to make landfall in 3 days near cape leveque, then turning southward before dissipating in the vicinity of Derby bay the end of the forecast. Errol is likely at peak intensity, though it is possible it could squeeze out another five knots. However, the most recent infrared imagery at 16/13:40 UTC shows the eastern side of the eyewall starting to weaken fairly dramatically, which may show the beginning of the end for Errol. Shear is already up to 25 km/h (14 knots) per the latest CIMSS analysis, up from just 15 km/h (8 knots) 6 hours ago. The GFS model soundings show a rapid increase in shear to near 45 km/h (25 knots) in 12 hours, increasing to more than 65 km/h (35 knots) in 24 hours. The system will likely maintain intensity over the next 12 hours before the shear really starts to take effect. However, the effect of the shear will be dramatic over the next 24 hours onwards.
Preparations and impact
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References
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Tropical cyclones of the 2024–25 Australian region cyclone season | ||
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