2026 Hungarian parliamentary election
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Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Hungary in April 2026.[1]
Background
[edit]Amendment of the electoral law
[edit]On 17 December 2024, the National Assembly voted changes about the 106 constituencies. As a result, the number of Budapest electoral districts decreased from 18 to 16, while in Pest County was increased by the same difference number. Border changes in some parts of Csongrád-Csanád County and Fejér County also happened. The ruling Fidesz-KDNP made the decision citing changes in the results of latest census (2022), but according to the opposition, the real goal was to weaken their position in those, mainly capital districts, where they were previously elected directly.[2]
The record Fidesz victory
[edit]On 3 April 2022, with 54.13% of the popular vote, Fidesz-KDNP received the highest vote share by any party or alliance since 1990 and won two-thirds of the seats for the fourth time. The united opposition suffered a massive defeat and was shortly after dissolved, its members sat in separate political groups in the National Assembly. From other minor parties, only Our Homeland Movement reached the threshold for entry, while Hungarian Two Tailed Dog Party did not.[3]
Following the election, for a while only Democratic Coalition managed to achieve sustained double-digit poll results alongside Fidesz, but still lagged far behind the ruling parties.[4][5]
The rise of TISZA
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On 2 February 2024, it was revealed that President Katalin Novák had granted a pardon in April 2023 to a criminal, involved in a pedophilia case.[6] The scandal resulted in Novák's resignation, as well as that of former justice minister Judit Varga, who had countersigned it.[7] Not long after, Varga's ex-husband Péter Magyar published a Facebook post declaring that he would resign from all of his government-related positions, stating that the past few years had made him realize that the idea of a "national, sovereign, bourgeois Hungary" stated as the goal of Viktor Orbán's rule was in fact a "political product" serving to obscure massive corruption and transfers of wealth to those with the right connections.[8]
On 15 March, Magyar, despite initially refusing his participation in politics, held a rally attended by tens of thousands in Budapest at which he announced the formation of a new political party.[9] According to polling conducted that month, around 15% of voters claimed they were "certain or highly likely" to vote for Magyar if he ran for office.[10]
On 10 April, Magyar announced his bid to run in the European Parliament election with the until then unknown Respect and Freedom Party, which finished in 2nd place its nearly 30% result, the highest number and percentage of votes by any non-Fidesz party since 2006, eventuating collapse for other opposition parties with it and a new situation in Hungarian politics. By the end of year, according to some polls, TISZA is already the most popular political party in Hungary or at least a close competition with Fidesz could be expected in the next general election.[11] Everybody's Hungary People's Party leader Péter Márki-Zay said that only TISZA should run against Fidesz, as the one party with a chance to defeat it.[12]
Electoral system
[edit]The 199 members of the National Assembly will be elected by mixed-member majoritarian representation with two methods; 106 will be elected in single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post voting, while the other 93 will be elected from a single nationwide constituency, mostly by proportional representation. Seats are then allocated using the D'Hondt method.[13]
Since 2014 each of the Armenian, Bulgarian, Croatian, German, Greek, Polish, Romani, Romanian, Rusyn, Serbian, Slovak, Slovenian, and Ukrainian ethnic minorities can win one of the 93 party lists seats if they register as a specific list and reach a lowered quota of of the total of party list votes. Each minority is able to send a minority spokesman – without the rights of an MP – to the National Assembly, if the list does not reach this lowered quota.[14]
Opinion polls
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Notes
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ "Ukraine will never join EU – Orban". Central European Times. 24 February 2025.
- ^ "Megszavazták a választási törvény módosítását". 24.hu. 17 December 2024.
- ^ "Nemzeti Választási Iroda". valasztas.hu. 3 April 2022.
- ^ "Árnyékkormányt alakít Dobrev Klára". telex.hu. 16 September 2022.
- ^ "Molnár Csaba: Egy dolgot nem próbált még az ellenzék 2010 óta, hogy legyen egy domináns párt". telex.hu. 6 February 2023.
- ^ "Children's home crisis threatens very foundation of Orban regime, say analysts". www.intellinews.com. 14 February 2024. Retrieved 30 March 2024.
- ^ Thorpe, Nick (10 February 2024). "Hungarian President Katalin Novak resigns over child-abuse pardon scandal". BBC. Retrieved 27 March 2024.
- ^ "Varga Judit volt férje: Egy percig sem akarok olyan rendszer részese lenni, amelyben Tónik, Ádámok és Barbarák vígan röhöghetnek a markukba". telex (in Hungarian). 10 February 2024. Retrieved 30 March 2024.
- ^ "Thousands protest in Budapest as Orban embroiled in corruption scandal". euronews. 26 March 2024. Retrieved 30 March 2024.
- ^ "In Hungary, Scandal and Crisis Suddenly Energize the Opposition". thebulwark. 18 March 2024. Retrieved 18 March 2024.
- ^ "Magyar Péter: Történelmet írunk, 18 éve nem volt ilyen". 24.hu (in Hungarian). 23 October 2024. Retrieved 23 October 2024.
- ^ "Márki-Zay szerint 2026-ban az a kérdés, hogy az ország lesz szabad, vagy Orbán Viktor". telex.hu (in Hungarian). 14 March 2025. Retrieved 14 March 2025.
- ^ "Electing Members of the National Assembly - House of the National Assembly - Országgyűlés". House of the National Assembly. Retrieved 2025-02-28.
- ^ Nemzeti Választási Iroda National Election Office
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