2025 Estonian municipal elections
Municipal elections in Estonia will be held on 19 October 2025.[1]
Polling and projections
[edit]Tallinn
[edit]Polling
[edit]
| Polling firm | Fieldwork Date | Kesk | Ref | EKRE | E200 | SDE | Isamaa | Green | Parem | Koos | ERK | Others | Lead | Gov. | Opp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norstat/ÜI MRP[a] | 17 Feb-3 Mar 2025 | 36.7 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 12.3 | 16.5 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.3 | — | 20.2 | 45.1 | 54.9 |
| Norstat/ÜI MRP[a] | 10-24 Feb 2025 | 35.3 | 13.9 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 13 | 16 | — | 3.6 | — | — | 5.5 | 19.3 | 47.2 | 52.8 |
| Norstat/ÜI MRP[a] | 3-17 Feb 2025 | 33.1 | 15.3 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 13.6 | 15.3 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | — | 17.8 | 48 | 52 |
| Norstat/ÜI MRP[a] | 27 Jan-10 Feb 2025 | 33.7 | 14.7 | 9.9 | 3.7 | 13.5 | 15.2 | — | 4.1 | — | — | 5.2 | 18.5 | 47.1 | 52.9 |
| Norstat/ÜI MRP[a] | 20 Jan-3 Feb 2025 | 35.1 | 13.9 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 13.4 | 15.3 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 19.8 | 47.2 | 52.8 | |||
| Norstat/ÜI MRP[a] | 13-27 Jan 2025 | 37.9 | 14.6 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 13.1 | 13.7 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 23.3 | 46.2 | 53.8 | |||
| Norstat/ÜI MRP[a] | 6-20 Jan 2025 | 36.4 | 16.4 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 14.8 | 13.1 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 20 | 47.8 | 52.2 | |||
| Norstat/ÜI MRP[a] | 23 Dec 2024-13 Jan 2025 | 34.0 | 17.2 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 15.4 | 13.6 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 16.8 | 49.2 | 50.8 | |||
| Norstat/ÜI MRP[a] | 16 Dec 2024- 6 Jan 2025 | 35.7 | 16.6 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 13.2 | 13.8 | 2.7 | 5 | 19.1 | 47.5 | 52.5 | |||
| Norstat/ÜI MRP[a] | 9-23 Dec 2024 | 35.3 | 16.1 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 19.2 | 48.4 | 51.6 | |||
| Norstat/ÜI MRP[a] | 2-16 Dec 2024 | 34.3 | 18.0 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 14.9 | 13.4 | 3.8 | 4 | 16.3 | 49.8 | 50.2 | |||
| Norstat/ÜI MRP[a] | 25 Nov-9 Dec 2024 | 33.9 | 19.8 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 15.1 | 12.9 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 14.1 | 50.9 | 49.1 | |||
| Norstat/ÜI MRP[a] | 18 Nov-2 Dec 2024 | 33.4 | 19.2 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 16.1 | 12.5 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 14.2 | 51 | 49 | |||
| Norstat/ÜI MRP[a] | 11-25 Nov 2024 | 33.6 | 17.3 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 16.3 | 13.0 | 4.0 | 6 | 16.3 | 49.9 | 50.1 | |||
| Norstat/ÜI MRP[a] | 4-18 Nov 2024 | 36.2 | 15.7 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 14.4 | 13.7 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 20.5 | 47.8 | 52.2 | |||
| Norstat/ÜI MRP[a] | 28 Oct-11 Nov 2024 | 34.3 | 16.2 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 13.1 | 15.1 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 18.1 | 49 | 51 | |||
| Norstat/ÜI MRP[a] | 21 Oct-4 Nov 2024 | 31.4 | 16.1 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 14.3 | 15.5 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 15.3 | 50.7 | 49.3 | |||
| Norstat/ÜI MRP[a] | 14-28 Oct 2024 | 31.8 | 16.3 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 15.9 | 13.5 | 3.6 | 6.8 | 15.5 | 50.4 | 49.6 | |||
| Norstat/ÜI MRP[a] | 7-21 Oct 2024 | 29.6 | 17.0 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 17.2 | 14.4 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 12.4 | 52.8 | 47.2 | |||
| Norstat/ÜI MRP[a] | 30 Sep-14 Oct 2024 | 29.8 | 17.0 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 16.4 | 15.4 | 3.7 | 5.9 | 12.8 | 53.3 | 46.7 | |||
| Norstat/ÜI MRP[a] | 23 Sep-7 Oct 2024 | 30.6 | 18.0 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 16.1 | 14.8 | 3.3 | 5.7 | 12.6 | 53 | 47 | |||
| Norstat/ÜI MRP[a] | 16-30 Sep 2024 | 30.1 | 16.6 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 17.6 | 15.1 | 3.4 | 6.5 | 12.5 | 52.9 | 47.1 | |||
| Norstat/ÜI MRP[a] | 9-23 Sep 2024 | 31.6 | 14.5 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 18.0 | 14.9 | 3.4 | 7.3 | 13.6 | 51.2 | 48.8 | |||
| Norstat/ÜI MRP[a] | 2-16 Sep 2024 | 32.8 | 15.0 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 15.8 | 15.2 | 3.5 | 7 | 17 | 49.6 | 50.4 | |||
| Norstat/ÜI MRP[a] | 9 Sep 2024 | 30.1 | 15.7 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 17.5 | 14.8 | 3.8 | 7.1 | 12.6 | 51.8 | 48.2 | |||
| Norstat/ÜI MRP[a] | 2 Sep 2024 | 27.5 | 16.0 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 20.2 | 14.3 | 3.6 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 54.8 | 45.2 | |||
| Coalition government is formed by Ref, E200, SDE, and Isamaa with Jevgeni Ossinovski as Mayor | |||||||||||||||
| Coalition government is formed by Kesk and SDE with Mihhail Kõlvart as Mayor | |||||||||||||||
| Election Results | 17 Oct 2021 | 45.4 | 17.8 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 2.2 | — | — | — | 0.9 | 27.6 | 47.6 | 52.4 |
| 38 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 23 | 38 | 41 | ||
Seat projections
[edit]| Polling firm | Fieldwork Date | Kesk | Ref | EKRE | E200 | SDE | Isamaa | Others | Lead | Gov. | Opp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norstat/ÜI MRP[a] | 17 Feb-3 Mar 2025 | 34 | 11 | 8 | 0 | 11 | 15 | 0 | 19 | 37 | 42 |
| Norstat/ÜI MRP[a] | 3-17 Feb 2025 | 31 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 12 | 14 | 0 | 17 | 40 | 39 |
| Coalition government is formed by Ref, E200, SDE, and Isamaa with Jevgeni Ossinovski as Mayor | |||||||||||
| Coalition government is formed by Kesk and SDE with Mihhail Kõlvart as Mayor | |||||||||||
| Election Results | 17 Oct 2021 | 38 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 23 | 38 | 41 |
Results
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All 79 seats to Tallinn City Council 40 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Nationwide
[edit]| Party | |
|---|---|
| Estonian Centre Party | |
| Electoral coalitions | |
| Estonian Reform Party | |
| Conservative People's Party of Estonia | |
| Isamaa | |
| Estonia 200 | |
| Social Democratic Party | |
| Estonian Greens | |
| Independents | |
| Total | |
Notes
[edit]- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab The MRP projection page states that "while both our poll weighting methodology (verified in EP elections) and MRP (validated by international pollsters) have a strong track record individually, their combination for Estonian local elections is still experimental. The ratings contain uncertainty ranges and the results should be interpreted as informed estimates, not precise predictions."
- ^ a b c d Presumed mayoral candidate[2]
References
[edit]- ^ "Valimistoimingud ja tähtajad | Valimised Eestis". www.valimised.ee. Retrieved 2025-02-06.
- ^ ERR, Anne Raiste | (2025-02-04). "Tallinnas hakkavad selguma erakondade linnapeakandidaadid". ERR (in Estonian). Retrieved 2025-02-06.
