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2023 Portuguese Socialist Party leadership election

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2023 Socialist Party leadership election
Socialist Party
← 2014 15–16 December 2023 2025 →
Turnout68.7%
 
Pedro Nuno Santos, projecto da alta velocidade Lisboa-Porto-Vigo (2022-10-01), cropped.png
José Luis Carneiro (cropped).jpg
Candidate Pedro Nuno Santos José Luís Carneiro
Popular vote 24,219 14,891
Percentage 60.8% 37.4%

Results by Party Federation.

Secretary-General before election

António Costa

Elected Secretary-General

Pedro Nuno Santos

The 2023 Portuguese Socialist Party leadership election was held on 15 and 16 December 2023.[1] The leadership ballot was called after Prime Minister and Socialist Party Secretary-General António Costa resigned from office on 7 November 2023.[2] The winner of this election led the Socialist Party into the 2024 legislative election.

The declared candidates included the former Infrastructure and Housing Minister Pedro Nuno Santos, who represented the leftist faction of the party and wants to build upon the legacy of António Costa, Internal Administration Minister José Luís Carneiro, who represented the moderate faction and a continuation of Costism, and Daniel Adrião, a longtime critic of Costa as Secretary-General, who represented a rupture.

Even with the candidates claiming the contrary, this leadership election was viewed as another ideological dispute to decide what direction the party and the country should take, similar to the leadership elections of 2014 between Costa and António José Seguro, of 2004 between José Sócrates and Manuel Alegre and of 1992 between António Guterres and Jorge Sampaio.

With a turnout rate of around 70%, Pedro Nuno Santos was elected as the new Secretary-General of the Socialist Party with almost 61% of the votes, against the 37% of José Luís Carneiro. Daniel Adrião polled below 1%.[3]

Background

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The Socialist Party (PS), led by then Prime Minister António Costa, won an absolute majority in the 2022 legislative election with 41 percent of the votes and 120 seats in the 230 seat Assembly of the Republic.

António Costa's third government was sworn in on 30 March 2022. This government proved to be unstable and experienced several scandals. By mid-2023, the government had seen the resignations of 11 secretaries of state and two ministers.[4] The biggest scandal involved TAP Air Portugal and a compensation payment to a government member, Alexandra Reis.[5] This case was followed by a violent incident, in late April 2023, at the Ministry of Infrastructure, between government staff members and an advisor to Minister João Galamba regarding an alleged stolen laptop.[6] The deployment of the Portuguese Secret Services in this case stirred a clash between Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, the incumbent president of Portugal, and Prime Minister António Costa concerning the future of Galamba and the government itself.[7]

Operation Influencer

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On 7 November 2023, the Public Security Police and the Public Prosecutor's office carried out a series of searches at the official residence of the Prime Minister and other ministries, leading to the arrest of the Prime Minister's chief of staff.[8] Costa was named as a suspect in a corruption case involving the awarding of contracts for the lithium and hydrogen businesses, but denied any wrongdoing.[9] He met President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in the Presidential Palace and announced his resignation shortly after, stating that he would not run for re-election.[10]

Following Costa's resignation the Socialist Party proposed a new cabinet led either by the President of the Assembly of the Republic, Augusto Santos Silva,[11] the Governor of the Bank of Portugal, Mário Centeno,[12] or by the former minister António Vitorino,[13] that would last until the end of the government's term in 2026. President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa however, after meeting with the Council of State, dissolved the assembly and called an early election for 10 March 2024.[14]

The Prime Minister's resignation was not made official immediately; it was postponed until 8 December 2023, so that the State Budget for 2024 could be approved by parliament.[15][16] It was the first time a single party majority government did not complete its full term in democratic Portugal.[17]

Candidates

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Declared

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Name Born Experience Announcement date Ref.

José Luís Carneiro
4 October 1971
(age 52)
Baião
Minister of Internal Administration (2022–2024)
Member of Parliament for Braga (since 2022)
Deputy Secretary-general of the Socialist Party (2019–2022)
Secretary of State for Portuguese Communities (2015–2019)
Mayor of Baião (2005–2015)
Member of Parliament for Porto (2005; 2015–2022)
10 November 2023 [18]

Pedro Nuno Santos
13 April 1977
(age 46)
São João da Madeira
Member of Parliament for Aveiro (since 2005)
Minister of Infrastructure and Housing (2019–2023)
Secretary of State for Parliament Affairs (2015–2019)
Secretary-general of the Socialist Youth (2004–2008)
13 November 2023 [19]
Daniel Adrião 1 September 1967
(age 56)
Member of the National Commission of the Socialist Party (since 2016)
Political activist
Candidate in the PS leadership elections of 2016, 2018 and 2021
17 November 2023 [20]

Declined

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Notable endorsements

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José Luís Carneiro
Presidents of the Assembly of the Republic
Ministers
Members of the Assembly of the Republic
MEPs
Mayors
Individuals
Pedro Nuno Santos
Ministers
Members of the Assembly of the Republic
MEPs
Mayors
Declined to endorse
Prime Ministers
Ministers
Members of the Assembly of the Republic

Campaign period

[edit]

Candidates' slogans

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Candidate Original slogan English translation Refs
José Luís Carneiro « Por Todos. Para Todos » "By All. For All" [63]
Pedro Nuno Santos « Portugal Inteiro » "Whole Portugal" [63]
Daniel Adrião « Democracia Plena » "Full Democracy" [64]

Candidates' debates

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José Luís Carneiro and Daniel Adrião proposed a series of debates between the candidates, but Pedro Nuno Santos refused to participate in any debate. Therefore, no debates between the candidates to the leadership were held.[65]

Opinion polling

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All voters

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Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size Others/
Undecided
Lead
Nuno Santos Carneiro
ICS/ISCTE 18–27 Nov 2023 803 26 24 50 2
CESOP–UCP 15–24 Nov 2023 1,102 29 38 33 9
Aximage 18–23 Nov 2023 802 52 26 22 26
Intercampus 14–17 Nov 2023 604 31.7 28.1 40.2 3.6
Aximage 10–13 Nov 2023 504 32 18 50[a] 14
Aximage 8–9 Nov 2023 516 30 9 61[b] 21

PS voters

[edit]
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size Others/
Undecided
Lead
Nuno Santos Carneiro
ICS/ISCTE 18–27 Nov 2023 ? 37 32 31 5
CESOP–UCP 15–24 Nov 2023 ? 39 34 27 5
Aximage 18–23 Nov 2023 ? 61 26 13 35
Aximage 10–13 Nov 2023 ? 31 23 47[c] 8
Hypothetical polling

All voters

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size Others/

Undecided

Lead
Medina Nuno Santos Vieira da Silva Mendes Temido Santos Silva Adão
ICS/ISCTE 10–18 Sep 2022 807 12 6 4 3 8 1 65 4
Intercampus 14–23 Sep 2021 609 21.0 20.0 11.7 10.2 25.9 11.2 4.9

PS voters

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size Others/

Undecided

Lead
Medina Nuno Santos Vieira da Silva Mendes Santos Silva
ICS/ISCTE 10–18 Sep 2022 807 15 6 6 5 16 51 1

Results

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National summary

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Candidate 15 & 16 December 2023
Votes %
Pedro Nuno Santos 24,219 60.83
José Luís Carneiro 14,891 37.40
Daniel Adrião 382 0.96
Total 39,492
Valid votes 39,492 99.19
Invalid and blank ballots 322 0.81
Votes cast / turnout 39,814 68.65
Registered voters 57,993
Source:[66]
Vote share
Pedro Nuno Santos
60.83%
José Luís Carneiro
37.40%
Daniel Adrião
0.96%
Blank/Invalid
0.81%

Results by party federation

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The following table shows a breakdown of the results of the election by party federation, which are mostly equal to the electoral circles.[66]

Result breakdown of the 2023 Portuguese Socialist Party leadership election
Federation Pedro Nuno Santos José Luís Carneiro Daniel Adrião Invalid
ballots
Votes cast Registered
Votes % Votes % Votes %
Algarve 710 62.50 413 36.36 12 1.06 1 1,136 1,491
Aveiro 1,299 75.17 404 23.38 10 0.58 15 1,728 2,096
Baixo Alentejo 405 56.96 291 40.93 6 0.84 9 711 862
Braga 2,928 55.37 2,280 43.12 19 0.36 61 5,288 7,897
Bragança 560 58.82 373 39.18 9 0.95 10 952 1,131
Castelo Branco 549 58.10 373 39.47 5 0.53 18 945 1,123
Coimbra 1,874 68.80 800 29.37 35 1.28 15 2,724 3,506
Évora 270 63.08 145 33.88 8 1.87 5 428 534
Guarda 487 60.05 317 39.09 5 0.62 2 811 986
Leiria 611 58.58 410 39.31 13 1.25 9 1,043 1,249
Lisbon: Urban Area 3,265 66.85 1,519 31.10 61 1.25 39 4,884 7,165
Lisbon: Oeste 126 36.42 212 61.27 5 1.45 3 346 415
Portalegre 544 68.77 230 29.08 8 1.01 9 791 1,036
Porto 4,951 56.88 3,627 41.67 53 0.61 73 8,704 11,321
Santarém 752 70.28 293 27.38 16 1.50 9 1,070 1,252
Setúbal 1,382 66.38 656 31.51 27 1.30 17 2,082 2,942
Viana do Castelo 546 65.00 289 34.40 4 0.48 1 840 976
Vila Real 499 46.81 557 52.25 10 0.94 0 1,066 1,316
Viseu 1,386 67.68 635 31.01 3 0.15 24 2,048 2,478
Azores 321 65.91 165 33.88 0 0.00 1 487 4,677
Madeira 493 40.28 725 59.23 6 0.49 0 1,224 1896
Europe 117 54.67 77 35.98 19 8.88 1 214 892
Outside of Europe 144 49.32 100 34.25 48 16.44 0 292 752

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ Mário Centeno: 21%; Other: 2%; Undecided: 27%
  2. ^ Fernando Medina: 19%; Carlos César: 6%; Other: 3%; Undecided: 33%
  3. ^ Mário Centeno: 29%; Other: 2%; Undecided: 16%

References

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  1. ^ "PS vai escolher o próximo secretário-geral a 15 e 16 de dezembro. Congresso marcado para 6 e 7 de janeiro". CNN Portugal (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-11-10.
  2. ^ "António Costa demite-se: "Obviamente"". CNN Portugal (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-11-07.
  3. ^ "Pedro Nuno Santos eleito secretário-geral do PS com 62%". sicnoticias.pt. SIC Notícias. 17 December 2020.
  4. ^ "Terceiro Governo de Costa já teve 13 baixas em apenas 16 meses" Archived 8 July 2023 at the Wayback Machine, ECO, 7 July 2023. Retrieved 8 July 2023.
  5. ^ "26 dias. Alexandra Reis durou menos tempo no Governo que Miguel Alves " Archived 8 July 2023 at the Wayback Machine, ECO, 28 December 2023. Retrieved 8 July 2023.
  6. ^ "Acusações, ocultações, suspeitas de agressões – até houve pessoas refugiadas no WC: guia para entender a nova crise no Governo (mas dá mesmo para entendê-la?)" Archived 8 July 2023 at the Wayback Machine, CNN Portugal, 28 April 2023. Retrieved 8 July 2023.
  7. ^ "Marcelo arrasa Galamba e promete ser mais "interventivo" e "atento" com Costa" Archived 8 July 2023 at the Wayback Machine, Diário de Notícias, 4 May 2023. Retrieved 8 July 2023.
  8. ^ Lopes, Maria (7 November 2023). "Buscas da PSP na residência oficial de Costa e ministérios do Ambiente e Infra-estruturas; chefe de gabinete e Lacerda Machado detidos". PÚBLICO (in Portuguese). Archived from the original on 7 November 2023. Retrieved 7 November 2023.
  9. ^ "Governo investigado: António Costa é suspeito e vai ser alvo de inquérito pelo Supremo Tribunal de Justiça". Expresso (in Portuguese). 7 November 2023. Archived from the original on 7 November 2023. Retrieved 7 November 2023.
  10. ^ "António Costa demite-se: "Obviamente"". CNN Portugal (in Portuguese). Archived from the original on 12 November 2023. Retrieved 7 November 2023.
  11. ^ Tavares, Rita. "PS apresentará Santos Silva como primeiro-ministro provisório se Marcelo não quiser eleições". Observador (in European Portuguese). Archived from the original on 8 November 2023. Retrieved 8 November 2023.
  12. ^ Mário Centeno sucessor de António Costa? "Falamos depois" (in Portuguese), archived from the original on 9 November 2023, retrieved 9 November 2023
  13. ^ Santos Silva, Carlos César, António Vitorino? Os nomes que o PS pode propor para liderar o Governo (in Portuguese), 8 November 2023, retrieved 5 February 2025
  14. ^ "Marcelo marca eleições para 10 de março". Rádio Renascença (in European Portuguese). 9 November 2023. Archived from the original on 9 November 2023. Retrieved 9 November 2023.
  15. ^ Novais, Filipa; Morais, Miguel; Teixeira, Sara (9 November 2023). "Marcelo dissolve Parlamento. António Costa no Governo até às próximas eleições a 10 de março" [Marcelo dissolves Parliament. António Costa in Government until the next elections on 10 March]. Correio da Manhã (in Portuguese). Archived from the original on 16 November 2023. Retrieved 16 November 2023.
  16. ^ "Presidente da República decreta demissão do Governo" [President of the Republic decrees government resignation]. Presidência da República Portuguesa (in Portuguese). 7 December 2023. Archived from the original on 8 December 2023. Retrieved 8 December 2023.
  17. ^ "Quantos governos e quantas maiorias absolutas teve cada um? PS e PSD concentram mais de 65% dos votos em legislativas desde 1987". Expresso (in Portuguese). 4 March 2024. Retrieved 22 December 2024.
  18. ^ Renascença (2023-11-10). "José Luís Carneiro vai anunciar candidatura ao PS - Renascença". Rádio Renascença (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-11-10.
  19. ^ Demony, Catarina; Goncalves, Sergio (2023-11-13). "Portugal's youthful ex-minister joins race for premiership". Reuters. Retrieved 2023-11-14.
  20. ^ Nascimento, Francisco (2023-11-17). "Daniel Adrião é o terceiro candidato à liderança do PS. Conheça o crítico de Costa". TSF (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-11-17.
  21. ^ "Ana Catarina Mendes coloca-se fora da corrida à sucessão de Costa". TSF Rádio Notícias (in European Portuguese). 2023-11-09. Retrieved 2023-11-09.
  22. ^ "Telefone de Seguro tocou mais após "turbilhão" em que país mergulhou". SIC Notícias (in Portuguese). 2023-11-10. Retrieved 2023-11-27.
  23. ^ Observador, Rádio. "Fernando Medina afasta candidatura à liderança do PS". Observador (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-11-10.
  24. ^ Tavares, Mariana Lima Cunha, Rita. "Francisco Assis almoça com Pedro Nuno Santos e não disputa liderança do PS". Observador (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-11-08.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  25. ^ "Mariana Vieira da Silva não apoia nenhum dos candidatos à liderança do PS e admite dificuldade em "virar a página"". RTP (in European Portuguese). 2023-11-22.
  26. ^ "Temido a liderar PS? "Num futuro muito distante tudo é possível, no imediato é momento de serenidade"". TSF (in European Portuguese). 2023-11-07.
  27. ^ Portugal, Rádio e Televisão de (2023-11-08). "Marta Temido afasta possível candidatura à liderança do PS". Marta Temido afasta possível candidatura à liderança do PS (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-11-09.
  28. ^ "Exclusivo: Centeno admitiu ser PM de emergência - mas não será candidato ao PS". TVI Notícias (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-11-10.
  29. ^ "Eleições: Augusto Santos Silva oficializa apoio a José Luís Carneiro". SIC Notícias (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-11-16.
  30. ^ a b c d e f "Carneiro soma apoios e tenta contrariar ímpeto de Pedro Nuno". Jornal de Notícias (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-11-16.
  31. ^ a b c "Correia de Campos apoia José Luís Carneiro na corrida à liderança do PS". Público (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-11-13.
  32. ^ "Ministra da Justiça apoia José Luís Carneiro na corrida à liderança do PS". tsf (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-11-28.
  33. ^ a b c d e f "Medina apoia oficialmente José Luís Carneiro por defender uma "política de conta certas"". Público (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-11-19.
  34. ^ "Jorge Lacão apoia Carneiro para "defender o regime democrático dos riscos da radicalização"". Público (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-11-12.
  35. ^ "Maria de Belém apoia José Luís Carneiro na corrida pela sucessão de Costa". TSF (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-11-26.
  36. ^ "Eleições no PS: António Sales será mandatário de José Luís Carneiro". Jornal de Leiria (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-11-16.
  37. ^ a b c d e "Cafôfo e Jamila Madeira apoiam Carneiro a líder do PS". TSF (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-11-13.
  38. ^ "Brilhante Dias apoia José Luís Carneiro com o objectivo de "ganhar as eleições" ao PSD". Público (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-12-03.
  39. ^ a b "Capoulas Santos declara apoio a José Luís Carneiro". Correio da Manhã (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-11-12.
  40. ^ "PS: Paulo Pisco declara apoio a José Luís Carneiro". Bom Dia Europa (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-11-12.
  41. ^ "Lacerda Sales e Carlos Zorrinho apoiam José Luís Carneiro e assumem responsabilidades na campanha". Observador (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-11-16.
  42. ^ "Histórico dirigente da distrital de Braga apoia José Luís Carneiro à liderança do PS". O Minho (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-11-12.
  43. ^ ""Tony Carreira grava vídeo de apoio a José Luís Carneiro"". Diário de Notícias (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-12-12.
  44. ^ a b c d e ""Quem são os seis ministros que apoiam Pedro Nuno Santos?"". CNN Portugal (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-11-19.
  45. ^ a b c d e f g "Maioria das Federações ao lado de Pedro Nuno Santos". Jornal de Notícias (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-11-14.
  46. ^ a b c d e f "Pedro Nuno promete aprender com os erros e distancia PS da Operação Influencer". Público (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-11-13.
  47. ^ a b c d e f g "Candidatura de Pedro Nuno à liderança do PS afirma ter apoio de 79 dos 120 deputados". Jornal de Notícias (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-11-19.
  48. ^ "Edite Estrela anuncia apoio a Pedro Nuno Santos na corrida ao PS". TSF (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-11-25.
  49. ^ a b "Pedro Nuno Santos apresenta candidatura à liderança do PS". TSF (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-11-13.
  50. ^ ""Oposto da indefinição." Isabel Moreira apoia candidatura de Pedro Nuno Santos". TSF (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-11-13.
  51. ^ "Manuel Alegre declara apoio a Pedro Nuno Santos: ex-ministro segue com vantagem na partida para as diretas". Expresso (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-11-16.
  52. ^ "Vereador da Câmara do Porto apoia candidatura de Pedro Nuno Santos à liderança do PS". Porto Canal (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-11-12.
  53. ^ "Ana Gomes: "Se Pedro Nuno se candidatar? Serei apoiante"". Observador (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-11-11.
  54. ^ "Assis apoia Pedro Nuno: "Não somos dois apparatchiks preocupados em ascender"". Público (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-11-13.
  55. ^ "Eurodeputada Sara Cerdas apoia candidatura de Pedro Nuno Santos". Jornal Económico (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-11-30.
  56. ^ a b "Apoiantes de Pedro Nuno Santos no Distrito de Braga". Digital de Vizela (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-11-12.
  57. ^ "Eduardo Vítor Rodrigues declara apoio à candidatura de Pedro Nuno Santos à liderança do PS". Porto Canal (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-11-11.
  58. ^ Encontro com Militantes e Simpatizantes - Leiria, retrieved 2023-11-24
  59. ^ "Walter Chicharro apoia Pedro Nuno Santos". Diário de Leiria (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-11-16.
  60. ^ "Comissão Nacional do PS: Costa não vai apoiar qualquer candidato à liderança". Sic Notícias (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-11-18.
  61. ^ "Mariana Vieira da Silva não apoia nenhum dos candidatos à liderança do PS e admite dificuldade em "virar a página"". RTP (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-11-22.
  62. ^ "Marta Temido: "Está instalado um ambiente de suspeição" em relação aos políticos". Público (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-11-30.
  63. ^ a b "A primeira diferença é logo na capa das moções: Pedro Nuno Santos sozinho, José Luís Carneiro rodeado de gente. Há 49+94 páginas que o país deve conhecer". CNN Portugal (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2 December 2023.
  64. ^ "Candidatos a Secretário-Geral do PS entregam candidaturas e moções políticas". Socialist Party (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2 December 2023.
  65. ^ "Carneiro e Adrião insistem em debates. Pedro Nuno recusa até os internos". Público (in Portuguese). 24 November 2023. Retrieved 2 December 2023.
  66. ^ a b "Resultados Eleições Internas 2023" (PDF). PS (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-12-18.
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