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SpaceX Mars colonization program

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Musk standing at a wooden podium talking at the 2006 Mars Society Conference
Elon Musk at the 2006 Mars Society conference. Before founding SpaceX in 2002, Musk had expressed interest in Mars missions and briefly joined the Mars Society's board of directors.

SpaceX Mars colonization program (also referred to as Occupy Mars)[1] is the planned objective of the company SpaceX, and particularly of its founder Elon Musk, to send humans to live on Mars. The plan is to establish a self-sustaining, large scale settlement and democratic, self-governing colony. The motivation behind this is the belief that colonizing Mars will allow humanity to become multiplanetary, thereby ensuring the long-term survival of the human race if it becomes extinct on Earth.[2] Colonization is to be achieved with reusable and mass-produced, super heavy-lift launch vehicles called Starship. They have been referred to as the "holy grail of rocketry" for extraplanetary colonization.[3]

These plans for colonising Mars have received both praise and criticism. They are supported by public interest in further human involvement beyond Earth and a desire to extend the lifetime of the human race, but doubts have been expressed about whether they will work, how it will be done, and whether humans from Earth could live on Mars.[3]

History

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Elon Musk, founder of SpaceX, has advocated colonization of Mars at the Mars Society since at least 2001.[4]: 30–31 As early as 2007, Musk publicly stated a personal goal of eventually enabling humans to explore and settle on Mars.[5] SpaceX has stated that its goal is to colonize Mars to ensure the long-term survival of the human species.[6] Since the 2000s and early 2010s, SpaceX has proposed different methods for reaching Mars, including the use of space tugs.

Red Dragon

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Artist's conception of two Red Dragon capsules on Mars, next to an outpost

Red Dragon was a 2011–2017 mission concept which would have used a modified Dragon 2 spacecraft as a low-cost Mars lander. The Dragon 2 would have been launched on a Falcon Heavy rocket, and would have landed by using its SuperDraco retro-propulsion thrusters.[7] Equipping the craft with parachutes would not have been possible without significant modifications.[8]

In 2011, SpaceX planned to use Red Dragon for Discovery Mission #13, which would have been launched in 2022,[9][10][11] but the plan was not submitted. Red Dragon was proposed in 2014 as a low-cost way for NASA to obtain a Mars sample return by 2021. The Red Dragon capsule would have been equipped with a system for returning samples gathered on Mars to Earth. NASA did not fund this concept. In 2016, SpaceX planned to launch two Red Dragon vehicles to Mars[12] in 2018,[13][14] with NASA providing technical support instead of funding. In 2017 Red Dragon was cancelled in favor of the much larger Starship spacecraft.[15]

Starship

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Main article: SpaceX Starship
SpaceX rendering of the Interplanetary Transport System approaching Mars

The company's current plan was first formally proposed at the 2016 International Astronautical Congress alongside a fully-reusable launch vehicle, the Interplanetary Transport System. Since then, the launch vehicle was renamed to "Starship", and has been in development since.

The development program reached several milestones in 2024. On its third test flight it reached its desired trajectory for the first time and on its fourth flight test, both stages of the vehicle achieved controlled splashdown after launch for the first time.

On 7 September 2024, SpaceX announced that it would launch the first uncrewed Starship missions to Mars by 2026 to take advantage of the next Earth-Mars transfer window. It was planned to send five Starships,[16] and Elon Musk stated on the social media platform X that these missions would focus on testing whether Starships could be reliably landed intact on Mars. If the missions were a success, the company would begin crewed flights to Mars within about four years.[17]

Composition

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Goals

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Further information: Space and survival and Life on Mars

As early as 2007, Elon Musk stated a personal goal of eventually enabling human exploration and settlement of Mars.[5]

SpaceX has stated its goal is to colonize Mars to ensure the long-term survival of the human species by becoming multiplanetary.[6]

Launch system

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Further information: Space launch market competition
SpaceX super heavy-lift launch vehicle Starship assembly at its launch facility called Starbase on the Boca Chica (Texas) peninsula in the Rio Grande delta at the Gulf of Mexico

In 2014 SpaceX began setting up a facility called Starbase, and later a factory called Starfactory, on the previously populated and wildlife area Boca Chica (Texas) peninsula in the Rio Grande delta at the Gulf of Mexico,[18] to build and launch a fully reusable super heavy-lift launch vehicle named Starship. The vehicle's reusability would greatly reduce launch costs, enabling rapid maintenance between flights. [19]: 2  It was intended that when Starship became operational, it would be able to travel to Mars carrying human colonists.[20] Musk has stated that a Starship orbital launch could eventually cost $2 million, after starting at $10 million within 2–3 years and dropping with time.[21] Starfactory would eventually build Starships at the rate of one per day.[22]

The rocket consists of a Super Heavy first stage booster and a Starship second stage spacecraft,[23] powered by Raptor and Raptor Vacuum engines.[24] Both stages are made from stainless steel.[25] Methane was chosen as fuel for the Raptor engines because it is relatively inexpensive, produces a low amount of soot as compared to other hydrocarbons,[26] and could be created on Mars from carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and hydrogen via the Sabatier reaction.[27] The engine family uses a new metal alloy for the main combustion chamber, enabling it to contain 300 bar (4,400 psi) of pressure, the most of all current engines.[26] In the future, it could be mass-produced[26] and cost about $230,000 per engine, or $100 per kilonewton.[28]

First missions

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Four astronauts looking at Mars
A scene of astronauts on Mars in the 2016 IAC presentation

Musk has stated that Starship's earliest possible Mars landing[29] could have been 2022, and that a crewed mission to Mars would take place no earlier than 2029.[30] SpaceX's early missions to Mars will involve small fleets of Starship spacecraft, funded by public–private partnerships.[31]

SpaceX has stated that it plans to build a crewed base on Mars which it hopes will grow into a self-sufficient colony.[32][33] Before any people are transported to Mars, a number of cargo missions would be undertaken in order to transport equipment, habitats and supplies.[34] Equipment that would accompany the early groups would include "machines to produce fertilizer, methane and oxygen from Mars' atmospheric nitrogen and carbon dioxide and the planet's subsurface water ice" as well as construction materials to build transparent domes for growing crops.[35][36] As of September 2024, SpaceX planned to launch five uncrewed Starships to Mars during the next available Earth-Mars transfer window in 2026.[16]

Musk's plans for the first crewed Mars mission state that it will consist of approximately 12 people, with goals to "build and troubleshoot the propellant plant and Mars Base Alpha power system" and establish a "rudimentary base." The company planses on Mars into fuel for return journeys,[37] and use similar technologies on Earth to create carbon-neutral propellant.[38]

Populating Mars

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People at SpaceX wearing t-shirts with Occupy Mars written on them. Colonization will depend on many people settling with the harsh reality of Mars,[39] as pointed out by Elon Musk presenting SpaceX's colonial approach.[40]

SpaceX hopes to begin sending colonists once infrastructure is established on Mars and launch costs from Earth are reduced. After the first few crewed Mars landings, Musk has suggested that the number of people sent to Mars could be rapidly increased. Musk's timeline for the colonization of Mars involves a first crewed mission as early as 2029 and the development of a self-sustaining colony by 2050.[41]

A successful colonization, with a human presence established on Mars, expanding over many decades, would ultimately involve many more economic actors than SpaceX.[42][43][44] Musk stated in 2024 that being able to make use of local resources on Mars would be essential for establishing a self-sustaining colony, and that SpaceX intended a colony to develop self-sufficiency in "seven to nine years".[45] Current proposals include harvesting CO2 from the atmosphere and splitting into its components. This would involve using O2 as well as CH4 for fuel production, and specifically the O2 in addition to nitrogen (the second-most common gas in the Martian atmosphere) for providing breathable air in the living quarters.[46]

The program aims to send a million people to Mars using 1000 Starships launched during Mars launch windows, which occur approximately every 26 months.[47] The journeys would require 80 to 150 days of transit time,[44] averaging approximately 115 days (for the nine synodic periods occurring between 2024 and 2041).[48]

Reception

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Human colonisation of Mars has gained increased interest, both supportive and critical, since the technical achievements of SpaceX's and Elon Musk's rise of popularity in the 2010s, and more so into the 2020s.

Support

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"We bring you Mars", a rendering of a terraformed Mars at SpaceX Headquarters

Some experts like Robert Zubrin support the concept. There is water ice in the form of permafrost and glaciers on Mars, as well as other resources such as carbon dioxide and nitrogen.[49] According to Zubrin, Starship's planned lower launch cost could make space research profitable, allowing major advancements in medicine, computers and material science,[4]: 47, 48  making mining profitable as well and space-based economy and colonization practical.[4]: 25, 26 

Others like Saul Zimet have expressed strong support for the concept, suggesting the possibility that the technological advances that could be developed on Mars will benefit the whole of Earth.[50]

Criticism

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SpaceX's plans for the colonization of Mars have been criticized on ethical and technical grounds. It has been argued that settling humans on Mars may divert attention from solving problems on Earth that could also become problems on Mars,[51] on the basis that plans about Mars are always about plans we have for Earth.[52] Jeff Bezos, founder of Blue Origin, SpaceX's would-be competitor in commercial spaceflight, has rejected Mars colonization as a mere "Plan B", suggesting instead that we should preserve Earth by moving all heavy industrial activity to space.[53] SpaceX's perspective has also been criticised as perpetuating the ideal of colonialism.[54][1] Zahaan Barhmal of The Guardian has argued that the question of the impact of human settlement on Mars has not been comprehensively addressed.[51] SpaceX has been criticized by communities of Boca Chica, where SpaceX has established its launching infrastructure, and accused of having a negative, colonial-style impact on the community's indigenous Carrizo Comecrudo heritage and the local environment and rich wildlife, without consultation or consent .[55][56][57]

It has been argued that the physical and social consequences of attempting long-term survival on the surface of Mars will need to be addressed.[52] Former U.S. President Barack Obama has said that Mars could be more inhospitable than Earth would be "even after a nuclear war",[58] and others have pointed out that planet Earth and underground shelters could still provide better conditions and protection for more people if it were needed.[51] The colonization of Mars has been called a 'dangerous delusion' by Lord Martin Rees, a British cosmologist/astrophysicist and the Astronomer Royal of the United Kingdom.[59] Musk has stated that staying on Mars would be a life- threatening endeavor that would need to be glorious to be worth it.[1] Zahaan Bharmal in the Guardian has additionally argued that exploration of Mars is better left to the already successful robot missions, and that crewed missions would be too expensive, dangerous and boring.[51]

Plans for SpaceX's Mars program have been criticized as far-fetched because of uncertainties about financing,[6] and because they mostly deal with transportation to Mars and not with the business of establishing a functioning colony afterwards. As of July 2019, SpaceX had not explained its plans for the spacecraft's life-support systems and radiation protection, and for making use of resources once the colonists had landed.[60] George Dvorsky writing for Gizmodo characterized Musk's timeline for Martian colonization as "stupendously unreasonable" and "pure delusion".[61]

Law

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SpaceX intends to base the laws governing a Martian colony on self-determination[62] and direct democracy (instead of representative democracy).[63] Some of this policy has appeared in the terms and services agreement for individual users of SpaceX's Starlink platform, which state the following: "The parties recognize Mars as a free planet and that no Earth-based government has authority or sovereignty over Martian activities".[64]

In contrast, internationally agreed space law proclaims space to be the "province of all mankind" and holds that Mars is not available to be claimed as property. Its legal status shares some elements of the legal status of international waters on Earth.[65] In addition, it is thought that the business of technocratic colonizers trying to accomplish direct-democracy[63] and the legal accommodation of a diverse population will be challenging.[66]

References

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