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Instructions · What links here · Polling in Scotland (talk: + · bio) · (log) · Copyvios report · reFill · Citation Bot · (Search: Google, Wikipedia) · Submitted 20 days ago by Pugpa2 (talk: D · +) · Last edited 11 hours ago by Pugpa2

Submission declined on 26 February 2025 by KylieTastic (talk).

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Declined by KylieTastic 21 days ago. Last edited by Pugpa2 11 hours ago. Reviewer: Inform author.

This draft has been resubmitted and is currently awaiting re-review.

Polling in Scotland for next UK General Election

Politics and polling in Scotland often have a different dynamic to the rest of the UK,^[1] this often gets lost in larger UK wide articles where this dynamic is not clear, captured or hard to find in huge UK articles. This article also complements 2 other articles that capture the different dynamics in politics and polling in Scotland in particular polling for the Scottish Parliament^[2]^[3] and on the matter of Scottish Independence^[4]

Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election in Scotland is being carried out continually by various organisations to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

The polling companies listed are All members of the British Polling Council (BPC)^[5] at the time of polling and abide by its disclosure rules. The dates of these opinion polls range from the previous general election on 4 July 2024 to the present.

The next general election must be held no later than 15 August 2029 under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022.^[6] The Act mandates that any Parliament automatically dissolves five years after it first met – unless it is dissolved earlier at the request of the prime minister – and polling day occurs no more than 25 working days later.

Graphical Summary

Polls

Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Lab	SNP	Con	LD	Ref	Grn	Alba	Others	Lead
Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size								Others	Lead
15–20 Jan 2025	Find Out Now^[7]	Sunday National	1,334	18%	32%	12%	9%	17%	6%		5%	14
11–14 Jan 2025	Norstat^[8]	The Sunday Times	1,334	18%	32%	13%	11%	17%	6%	2%		14
7–13 Jan 2025	Survation^[9]	Holyrood Sources	1,024	24%	33%	14%	9%	15%	4%		1%	9
17–24 Dec 2024	Find Out Now^[10]	The National	1,774	20%	34%	13%	9%	15%	6%		2%	14
4–6 Dec 2024	Norstat^[11]	The Sunday Times	1,013	20%	31%	14%	9%	15%	6%	3%	1%	11
1–15 Nov 2024	Survation^[12]	Progress Scotland	3,016	28%	31%	15%	6%	13%	5%	2%	1%	3
30 Oct – 1 Nov 2024	Norstat^[13]	The Sunday Times	1,013	23%	30%	15%	10%	14%	6%	1%	1%	7
27 Sep 2024	Russell Findlay is elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives
10–13 Sep 2024	Survation^[14]	Progress Scotland	2,059	31%	31%	14%	9%	11%	3%	1%		Tie
5–11 Sep 2024	Opinium^[15]	The Sunday Times	1,028	25%	32%	14%	8%	11%	7%		2%	7
20–22 Aug 2024	Norstat^[16]	The Sunday Times	1,011	32%	29%	12%	8%	12%	5%	2%	1%	3
4 Jul 2024		2024 General Election Result	–	35.3%	30.0%	12.7%	9.7%	7.0%	3.8%	0.5%	1.6%	5.3

UK polls with Scottish Subset

This section captures data from UK wide polls that have a Scottish sub set, these produce very small sample sizes and should be viewed with caution as margin of error will be in the region of +-10% ^[17]Margin of error for full poll with sample of 1000 is +-3%

Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Lab	SNP	Con	LD	Ref	Grn	Others	Lead
Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size							Others	Lead
16–17 Mar 2025	YouGov^[18]	The Times/Sky News	201	23%	30%	13%	11%	15%	7%	1%	7
12 Mar 2025	FindoutNow^[19]		140	16%	33%	13%	6%	23%	4%	3%	10
9–10 Mar 2025	YouGov	The Times/Sky News	199	16%	31%	17%	12%	15%	7%	2%	14
7–10 Mar 2025	More in Common		119	28%	26%	18%	7%	16%	%	1%	2
5–7 Mar 2025	Opinium	The Observer	125	21%	32%	9%	7%	22%	7%	3%	10
05 Mar 2025	FindoutNow		130	22%	31%	16%	10%	15%	6%	1%	9
02–03 Mar 2025	YouGov	The Times	193	21%	32%	13%	11%	16%	6%		11
28 Feb – 2 Mar 2025	More in Common		193	24%	27%	12%	15%	17%	5%		3
26 Feb 2025	FindoutNow		138	15%	31%	12%	11%	24%	7%	1%	7
23–24 Feb 2025	YouGov	The Times	210	17%	39%	15%	10%	14%	4%	1%	22
21–24 Feb 2025	More in Common		108	17%	29%	18%	11%	19%	7%		10
19–21 Feb 2025	Opinium	The Observer	119	17%	36%	11%	12%	16%	6%	2%	19
19 Feb 2025	FindoutNow		102	26%	30%	8%	14%	10%	8%	5%	4
16–17 Feb 2025	YouGov		212	22%	34%	8%	7%	22%	6%		12
14–18 Feb 2025	More in Common		199	22%	31%	13%	12%	18%	3%		9
11–14 Feb 2025	YouGov	The Times	193	21%	32%	13%	11%	16%	6%		11
9–10 Feb 2025	YouGov		107	23%	27%	14%	10%	22%	3%	1%	3
7–10 Feb 2025	More in Common		107	17%	38%	10%	12%	19%	3%	1%	19
5–7 Feb 2025	Opinium	The Observer	124	15%	36%	12%	6%	23%	5%	3%	13
5–6 Feb 2025	Find Out Now		117	18%	30%	10%	14%	18%	9%	3%	12
2–3 Feb 2025	YouGov	Sky News	215	15%	34%	13%	13%	17%	5%	4%	17
28–29 Jan 2025	BMG		104	27%	35%	10%	8%	12%	5%	3%	8
17–20 Jan 2025	More in Common		124	24%	26%	13%	12%	16%	4%		2
6–8 Jan 2025	More in Common		124	20%	30%	18%	10%	17%	3%		8
8 Jan 2025	Find Out Now		102	18%	35%	10%	12%	15%	7%	1%	17
8–10 Jan 2025	Opinium		125	25%	28%	11%	10%	16%	5%	4%	3
30 Dec – 3 Jan 2025	Deltapoll	Mail on Sunday	104	17%	32%	12%	14%	17%	8%		15

Target Seats

Identified potential target seats using calculation of requiring 5% swing or less from winning party for the seat to change hands. For those parties with no target seats using this calculation shows the three seats with smallest swing required for that party to win a seat.

Labour


Rank	Constituency		Swing required
1	Dundee Central	Scottish National Party	0.87%
2	Arbroath and Broughty Ferry	Scottish National Party	0.97%
3	Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey	Scottish National Party	1.05%
4	Aberdeen North	Scottish National Party	2.09%
5	Aberdeen South	Scottish National Party	4.05%
6	Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale	Conservative Party	5.49%

Scottish National Party

Rank	Constituency		Swing required
1	Gordon and Buchan	Conservative Party	1.00%
2	Dumfries and Galloway	Conservative Party	1.02%
3	Stirling and Strathallan	Labour Party	1.40%
4	Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire	Liberal Democrats	2.25%
5	West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine	Conservative Party	3.51%
6	Livingston	Labour Party	3.93%
7	Edinburgh East and Musselburgh	Labour Party	4.08%
8	Glenrothes and Mid Fife	Labour Party	4.09%
9	Ayrshire North and Arran	Labour Party	4.20%
10	Glasgow South West	Labour Party	4.60%
11	Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale	Labour Party	4.80%
12	Glasgow South	Labour Party	4.90%
13	Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch	Labour Party	5.06%
14	Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock	Labour Party	5.07%
15	Glasgow North	Labour Party	5.09%
16	Glasgow East	Labour Party	5.34%
17	Falkirk	Labour Party	5.86%

Liberal Democrats


Rank	Constituency		Swing required
1	Argyll, Bute and Lochaber South	Scottish National Party	9.16%
2	Gordon and Buchanh	Conservative Party	14.22%
3	Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine	Conservative Party	15.62%

Conservative


Rank	Constituency		Swing required
1	Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey	Scottish National Party	1.08%
2	Aberdeenshire North and Moray East	Scottish National Party	1.23%
3	Perth and Kinross-shire	Scottish National Party	4.12%
4	Aberdeen South	Scottish National Party	4.22%
5	Angus and Perthshire Glens	Scottish National Party	5.14%

Reform UK


Rank	Constituency		Swing required
1	Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddalen	Conservative Party	15.69%
2	Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock	Labour Party	17.67%
3	Aberdeen South	Labour Party	17.81%

MPs not seeking re-election

Members of Parliament not standing for re-election
MP	Constituency	First elected	Affiliation		Date announced	Note
Name	Constituency name	Year elected			Date announced	Current Position held

Notes

References

[1] "Blog – Scottish Election Study". October 1, 2024.

[2] "The Scottish Parliament". www.parliament.scot.

[3] "Political representation in Scotland".

[4] "Scottish independence". 18 September 2024.

[5] "The British Polling Council (BPC)". British Polling Council.

[6] "Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022". www.legislation.gov.uk.

[7] ttps://cms.findoutnow.co.uk/app/uploads/2025/02/Herald-tables.xlsx

[8] ttps://aws.norstat.no/uk-political-polling/ST%20Tables%20for%20publication%20180225.pdf

[9] ttps://cdn.survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/14162857/TrueNorthJan25Tables-1.xlsx

[10] ttps://cms.findoutnow.co.uk/app/uploads/2024/12/Find-Out-Now-Tables-for-The-National-VI-and-Indyref2-Polls-Dec-2024.xlsx

[11] ttps://aws.norstat.no/uk-political-polling/ST%20Tables%20for%20publication%20v3%20231224.pdf

[12] ttps://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.survation.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2024%2F11%2F25124414%2FProgress_Scotland-Nov-Tables-1.xlsx&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK

[13] ttps://aws.norstat.no/uk-political-polling/ST%20Tables%20for%20publication%20051124.pdf

[14] ttps://cdn.survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/18163445/PSTablesSeptember24.xlsx

[15] ttps://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/UK26631-Opinium-The-Times-10-Years-Since-Indyref-Tables.xlsx

[16] ttps://aws.norstat.no/uk-political-polling/ST%20Tables%20for%20publication%20240824.pdf

[17] "Margin of Error - notes for journalists".

[18] "Voting intention: 17th March 2025" (PDF). Retrieved 18 March 2025.

[19] "Voting intention: 12th March 2025". Retrieved 14 March 2025.

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Draft:Polling in Scotland