Draft:2025 recession
A recession is expected to occur in the United States in 2025, according to JPMorgan Chase analysts.
Background
[edit]The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, an indicator of recessions and financial crises, increased after the 2024 United States presidential election,[1] though by January 2025, officials with the Federal Reserve expressed no indication that a recession was imminent,[2] bolstered by a formidable labor market.[3] According to The New York Times, most economists considered a recession improbable by March.[4] That month, after president Donald Trump imposed tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, he declined to rule out a recession to Sunday Morning Futures host Maria Bartiromo. His commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, said there was "no chance" of a recession.[5] The following day, stocks suffered steep declines. Goldman Sachs estimated a twenty percent chance of a recession, while JPMorgan Chase estimated a forty percent chance.[6] David Kelly, the chief market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, noted to the Times that the Russell 2000 Index's fall was a "signal that the market is worried about recession".[7]
Definition
[edit]In April 2025, JPMorgan Chase said it was expecting the United States to enter a recession that year.[8]
References
[edit]Works cited
[edit]- Boesler, Matthew (April 4, 2025). "JPMorgan Says Trump's Tariffs to Send US Into Recession". Bloomberg News. Retrieved April 4, 2025.
- Broadwater, Luke; Smith, Colby; Swanson, Ana (March 9, 2025). "Trump Declines to Rule Out Recession as Tariffs Begin to Bite". The New York Times. Retrieved April 4, 2025.
- Casselman, Ben (February 15, 2025). "Does Uncertainty Harm the Economy? Business Leaders Are About to Find Out". The New York Times. Retrieved April 4, 2025.
- Casselman, Ben; Smith, Colby (March 7, 2025). "Trump's Policies Have Shaken a Once-Solid Economic Outlook". The New York Times. Retrieved April 4, 2025.
- Kaye, Danielle; Nelson, Eshe; Rennison, Joe (March 10, 2025). "Stocks Plunge as Recession Talk Gets Louder". The New York Times. Retrieved April 4, 2025.
- Rennison, Joe (March 14, 2025). "This Stock Market Index Is Flashing a Clear Warning About the Economy". The New York Times. Retrieved April 4, 2025.
- Smith, Colby (January 28, 2025). "The Fed Is About to Hit Pause on Rate Cuts. Here's Why". The New York Times. Retrieved April 4, 2025.
- Smith, Colby (January 31, 2025). "The Fed's Preferred Inflation Measure Ticked Up Slightly in December". The New York Times. Retrieved April 4, 2025.