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2025 Shabelle offensive

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2025 Shabelle offensive
Part of Somali Civil War (2009–present)

Al-Shabaab fighters on the main highway connecting Mogadishu and Afgooye
DateFebruary 20, 2025 (2025-2-20) – present (1 month and 18 days)
Location
Central and south Somalia, Somali–Kenyan border
Status Ongoing
Territorial
changes
Belligerents
Supported by:
 United Nations[1]
 United Arab Emirates[2][3][4]
 United States[5][6]
 Ethiopia[7][8]
 Kenya[9][10]
 Uganda[11][12]
 Djibouti[13][14]
 Egypt[15][16][17]
 Turkey[18]
 Qatar[19]
Commanders and leaders
Somalia Odowa Yusuf Raage[21][22]
Somalia Sahal Abdullahi Omar[23][24]
Somalia Abukar Abdulle Garmaqate †[25]
Somalia Mohamed Nur Jareere †[26][27]
Somalia Haji Fareey †[28]
Somalia Hussein Haji Mohamed (Aw Koombe) †[29]
Somalia Nur Farey †
Somalia Abdullahi Aden Hussein (Cirro) (WIA)[30]
Hirshabelle Ali Abdullahi Hussein[31]
United States Michael Langley[32]
Ethiopia Berhanu Jula[33]
Seif Salim Rashid[34][35]
Joseph Musoke Ssemwanga[36]
Zakaria Cheikh Ibrahim[37]
Abdel Mageed Saqr[38]		 Ahmad Diriye
Mahad Karate
Yusuf Dhegnaas †[39]
Abukar Buulle Surrendered[40]
Mansoor Timo-Weyne †[41]
Units involved

AFRICOM[54][55]

Military of Al-Shabaab
Strength
Per UN:
 3,000 militants[75]
Casualties and losses
~482 killed (Somali government claim)
552 killed (al-Shabaab claim)
~150 injured
Several captured
145-600 Missing in Action[76]
Kenya 7 police personnel killed; 4 injured[77]		 At least 551 killed
42 civilians killed
31 injured

The 2025 Shabelle offensive (Somali: 2025 Shabeelle weerar, Arabic: هجوم شابيلي ٢٠٢٥, romanized: Hjwm shābyly 2025), also known as Operation Ramadan (Somali: Hawlgalka Ramadaanka, Arabic: عملية رمضان, romanized: ʻAmalīyat Ramaḍān),[78] is an ongoing military campaign in central Somalia, primarily in the Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle and Hiran regions, with periodic clashes in the Banaadir region. The offensive was launched by al-Shabaab, a Jihadist militant group allegiant to al-Qaeda, against the Somali National Army (SNA), African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) forces, and allied Ma'awisley clan militias. The group seeks to encircle the capital, Mogadishu,[79] and regain territory lost in the 2022 Somali government / African Union offensive, particularly strategic towns and supply routes.[80]

The offensive began on February 20, 2025, with coordinated attacks on multiple Somali military positions, which included ground assaults using car bombs. Al-Shabaab temporarily seized several towns before being repelled by government and allied militia forces. Subsequent attacks in late February targeted key locations such as Bal'ad, a district capital near Mogadishu.[81][82] Balad and other towns were quickly recaptured.[83] In mid-March 2025, al-Shabaab attempted to assassinate the president of Somalia.[79] Both the United States and Ethiopia have conducted airstrikes against al-Shabaab insurgents during the fighting.[84][56][85]

The campaign is part of a broader escalation in Somalia's insurgency, with al-Shabaab attempting to exploit security gaps created by the transition from ATMIS to AUSSOM.[81] Thousands of Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) troops are reportedly preparing to deploy in an attempt to bolster SNA/AUSSOM forces.[86] Analysts suggest the timing of the offensive may be linked to Ramadan and seasonal factors affecting militant operations.[81]

Attacks

[edit]

Initial attacks

[edit]

On February 20, 2025, al-Shabaab militants attacked four villages in the Middle Shabelle region with vehicles laden with explosives, they captured two villages before the Somali National Army repelled the al-Shabaab militants from two villages in heavy fighting including the village of Ali Ahmed, where at least seven Somali National Army members were killed, twenty al-Shabaab militants, and one local clan fighter were killed.[87] Al-Shabaab militants used VBIED attacks, mortars, and attacked villages from all directions.[88] Unnamed commanders of al-Shabaab were killed in the village of Ceel Cali Axmed.[89] Other villages like El Baraf were attacked, with fighting from pro-government Ma'awisley Abgal clan militia until they retreated and the village of El Baraf fell to al-Shabaab with at least 93 pro-Government deaths.[90]

In total, 130 al-Shabaab militants were killed and the villages of El-Ali, Daaru Nicma, Ali Fooldheere, and Al Kawthar were taken from al-Shabaab after brief moments of capture.[91] Weapons, vehicles, and other military equipment were taken from al-Shabaab militants after the confrontation though the exact amount of items were never specified.[92]

Al-Shabaab fighters in El Baraf, February 21

According to General Ibrahim Mumin, the commander of the 3rd division of the Somali National Army, al-Shabaab failed at its attempt at capturing major villages the Middle Shabelle region.[93] Al-Shabaab has claimed they took over four military bases in the Middle Shabelle area and Ali Ahmed, Daru Nicma, Kevser and Ali Fol Dheer settlements.[94] Dozens of Mogadishu administration soldiers were killed and injured in the attacks with al-Shabaab releasing images of the attacks through their media outlet, al-Kataib Media Foundation, with some officers being recorded as captured by al-Shabaab.[95]

Later attacks and offensive

[edit]

February

[edit]

On February 25, a joint military operation by the Somali government and local forces in Hirshabelle state, south-central Somalia, resulted in the deaths of over 70 al-Shabaab members.[96][97] Many of the al-Shabaab members were besieged and killed.[98] On the same day, al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for attacks in the Hiiraan and Middle Shabelle regions of Somalia, seizing weapons and military vehicles. Militants launched a surprise attack on the Aboorey area in Hiiraan, targeting Macawisley militia members and claiming to have inflicted casualties and captured vehicles, though militia officials also reported inflicting losses on the attackers.[99] Simultaneously, al-Shabaab assaulted multiple areas in Middle Shabelle, causing civilians to flee, and re-entered the El Ahmed and al-Kowthar areas, establishing a continued presence. Rising fear is reported in Aadan Yabaal, formerly held by government forces and the Ma'awisley militia.[100] Through these attacks, al-Shabaab took two villages including Ali Ahmed.[101]

On February 26, al-Shabaab fighters attacked Balad district in the Middle Shabelle region early, entering the town from multiple directions and engaging Somali federal government forces in heavy fighting. While the extent of casualties remains unclear, government-run media reported that the attack was defeated.[102] Al-Shabaab militants attacked military bases in the Balad district.[103]

On February 27, mortar shells were fired from the Middle Shabelle area at Mogadishu ahead of a planned visit by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.[104] On the same day, fighting began in the town of Balad located 30 kilometers (18.6 miles) north of Mogadishu, with al-Shabaab militants capturing the town after storming a military base located near the town.[105][106][107] The militants temporarily seized control of key government buildings and infrastructure,[108] and also freed prisoners from the local prison before later withdrawing from the town.[81][109]

March

[edit]

On March 1, heavy clashes ensued between Somali forces and al-Shabaab militants in Biyo Adde, a town in Middle Shabelle region, after al-Shabaab launched an assault against government checkpoints,[110] with al-Shabaab publishing images of its fighters occupying the town.[111][112] Al-Shabaab militants also attacked a house occupied by SNA commanders and soldiers in Kahda district, Mogadishu.[113] Al-Shabaab militants also ambushed federal troops on the road between Mogadishu and Balcad, killing three and seizing weapons and motorcycles.[113]

On March 2, the Somali National Army completed an operation that killed around 40 al-Shabaab members.[114][115] Al-Shabaab also fired mortars at SNA positions in Adan Yabaal town.[113]

On March 3, the United States assisted with airstrikes against al-Shabaab during this operation near the El Baraf area in the Middle Shabelle region during clashes in Biyaadde according to an AFRICOM report, with Hirshabelle Vice President Yusuf Ahmed Hagar Dabageed saying "the fight will continue and will not stop until al-Shabaab is defeated."[116] On the same day, al-Shabaab militants did coordinated attacks against Somali troops killing 60 Somali soldiers north of Mogadishu across several towns,[117] though al-Shabaab claims they killed 100.[118] These offensives have pushed closer to Mogadishu with these being the deadliest offensive by al-Shabaab in several years.[119] On the same day as well, Somali government forces, backed by local clan militias known as Macwiisley, repelled an attack by al-Shabaab militants in the Boos-Hareeri area of the Adan Yabal district.[120] Al-Shabaab recaptured Boos-Hareeri later that day, killing 20 SNA soldiers and wounding 13 others.[113] Al-Shabaab also captured the town of El Ali Ahmed killing 18 SNA soldiers and wounding 36.[113]

On March 4, al-Shabaab militants captured the village of War Ciise, located 25km from the provincial capital Jowhar, without a fight after Somali government forces fled, publishing images of militants patrolling the village.[121]

On March 5, al-Shabaab militants continued their advance towards Mogadishu through the Middle Shabelle, after the capturing of Balcad they continued south to Mogadishu.[122] That same day the Ethiopian Air Force conducted multiple airstrikes on al-Shabaab targets in the Middle Shabelle region,[123][124] marked Ethiopia's first known aerial operation in Somalia in nearly two decades since its 2006 intervention against the Islamic Courts Union.[125] However, despite airstrikes al-Shabaab militants have largely retained their positions, with ground offensives by Somali forces and allied Ma'awisley militias yet to dislodge al-Shabaab from its newly captured territories.[124] Al-Shabaab also launched an attack on federal positions in Yaqshid district.[113]

On March 6, the federal government deployed reinforcements to Middle Shabelle region to intensify its military operations in the area against al-Shabaab.[126] Federal government officials also visit the town of Bal'ad to boost morale of federal troops.[127]

On March 7, al-Shabaab militants attacked and recaptured al-Kowthar in the Boos-Hareri area in the Aden Yabal district after battling Somali forces, killing several and injuring several, including Colonel Saney Abdulle.[128][129] Several military vehicles were captured from the Somali soldiers by al-Shabaab including one with a Zu-23 anti-aircraft gun attached to it.[130] The group also published images of its fighters in the town and the government militia base there.[131] Al-Shabaab fighters also launched attacks on the Boos-Hareri village itself,[132] with Harun Maruf reporting its re-capture.[133] On the same day, the Somali Defense Minister Abdulkadir Mohamed Nuur confirmed Ethiopian airstrikes carried out against al-Shabaab militants in the Middle Shabelle with coordination from the Federal Government of Somalia.[134] Former Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble stated that the Federal Government is currently facing a difficult situation and needs to cooperate with the opposition and the conservatives, otherwise the country will be taken over by al-Shabaab. He also stated that apart from the Middle Shabelle region where heavy fighting is ongoing, there are fears that major battles will spread to other regions by al-Shabaab.[135] The Somalian government also banned weapons and military vehicles from entering Aden Adde International Airport driven by security concerns raised by the Americans.[136][137]

On March 8, the Ethiopian Air Force continued its air strikes against al-Shabaab militants in the Middle Shabelle region in Somalia with cooperation from the Somali government.[138] The Ethiopian government also deployed a large number of Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) near the border town of Ferfer in preparation for upcoming military operations targeting al-Shabaab militants in the Hiiraan and Middle Shabelle regions.[139] Near the Boos-Hareri region, Somali soldiers conducted a military operation killing 20 al-Shabaab militants.[140] Al-Shabaab killed, Abukar Abdulle 'Garmaqate', a senior police commander and 1st Brigade commander of the Police, and overran the villages of Bursha Sheekh, Ceel Xarar, Laba Garas and Xaruur, located near the strategic town of Adale, approximately 70 kilometers northeast of Mogadishu.[125] The militant also released images of their fighters in Balad during their temporary occupation of the town on February 28.[141] Somalian officials also confirmed the death of Yusuf Dhegnaas, a senior al-Shabaab leader, in a targeted airstrike in the El Ba'ad area of the Middle Shabelle region on March 5.[142]

On March 9, Mukhtar Robow, Somalia's Minister of Endowments and Religious Affairs and himself a former deputy leader and former spokesman of al-Shabaab before defecting in 2017, dismissed fears that Mogadishu could fall to al-Shabaab militants in a statement, declaring that the group has lost its ability to mount a serious threat to the capital. He also rejected comparisons between al-Shabaab and extremist groups in Syria, insisting that Somalia is not on the brink of collapse stating "Mogadishu is neither Kabul nor Damascus, and Ahmed Diiriye is no Ahmed al-Sharaa".[143] Somalia's Deputy Minister of Defence, Omar Ali Abdi, also revealed that senior government officials within the administration have been sharing sensitive military intelligence directly with al-Shabaab militants.[144] Al-Shabaab engaged in clashes with government forces killing multiple and injuring thirty six, capturing one as a prisoner of war and seizing a Bika machine gun and 7 Kalashnikov rifles, in the village of Ali Ahmed, repelling 5 other attacks and reasserting control of the area.[145]Al-Shabaab also attacked the town of Hareeri Caadley, killing its government-appointed mayor.[113]

Al-Shabaab fighters in Balad, February 27

On March 10, the Somali Air Force, specifically the 143rd Unit of the 14th October Brigade, executed an airstrike against al-Shabaab militants in the Baladul Amin area, one of the areas under the Afgooye district killing an al-Shabaab leader that was later identified as Da'uud Mohamed Maleele, who is known as the emir of zakat tax collection of the Baladul Amin area in Afgooye district.[146] On the same day, an airstrike coordinated by the Somali National Army targeted makeshift bridges by al-Shabaab which were used to connect regions together and make movements by al-Shabaab easier.[147] Former Deputy Director of Somalia's National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA), Abdisalam Guled, warned about al-Shabaab's growing threat, stating that al-Shabaab is shifting its methods, aiming to gain public trust while strengthening its territorial hold in central and southern Somalia, particularly in Hirshabelle. He also noted that al-Shabaab is using strategies similar to those seen with the Taliban in their takeover of Afghanistan and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham in Syria's conflict, hoping to establish its own governing authority.[148]

Al-Shabaab military parade, March 10

On March 11, al-Shabaab militants bombed a hotel called the Cairo Hotel in Beledweyne, capital of the Hiiraan region in the morning time with a vehicle borne improvised explosive device, and launched an hours long inghimasi assault on the hotel.[149][150] The hotel houses traditional elders and military officers involved in coordinating the government's offensive against the militant group.[149] The bombing initially killed 4 people (including two well-known traditional elders),[149][151] but the death toll increased to 10 civilians killed in the bombing.[152] Al-Shabaab's military command also issued a statement claiming to have killed 20, including 4 military officers in the operation in Beledweyne, while also claiming to have killed 18 soldiers and wounded 30 others in clashes Bursha Sheekh near Adale. The military command also stated that the operation is ongoing.[153][113]

On March 12, Somalia's Minister of Defence, Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur, confirmed that the federal government of Somalia coordinated airstrike operations done by the United Arab Emirates and Ethiopia against al-Shabaab and Islamic State in Somalia militants in Puntland's Al Miskaad Mountains and southern Somalia.[154] The Somali National Army claimed the killing of a senior leader and 50 al-Shabaab militants in the Damasha Shabeelow area of the Middle Shabelle region, killing Mansoor Timo-Weyne, who was the group's leader in charge of preparing and using combat vehicles who was also the target for the airstrike.[155]

On March 13, Somali forces and local security forces overran al-Shabaab militants targeting a heavily fortified militant base that was being used as a staging ground for attacks on civilian communities in a rural area near El Buur district in central Somalia's Galgaduud region seizing the base and killing several al-Shabaab militants.[156]

Somali National Army soldiers in South Galgaduud after an operation against al-Shabaab, March 13

On March 14, a series of airstrikes conducted by Somali military forces in coordination with the National Intelligence and Security Agency killed 41 al-Shabaab members, including senior leaders, first in the Boos-Hareeri area of Middle Shabelle which killed 29 al-Shabaab members then the ambaluul area of Lower Shabelle which killed an additional 12 members.[157] Al-Shabaab fired mortar shells at federal positions in Adan Yabal town.[113]

On March 15, al-Shabaab militants took control of the Sumadale area near the town of Adale, where 19 members of the Somali army were killed and 10 were injured after soldiers from Mogadishu attempted to take back the city of Adale.[158] This figure later rose to 22 deaths (including 10 corpses left behind on the battlefield) and 43 wounded, with the wounded being transferred to the Haji Ali area 7km away by the group.[159] Another round of clashes in the Laba Garas area led to government forces suffering 7 deaths and 4 injuries, with the group capturing a government technical.[159]

al-Shabaab also captured Awdheegle and the district associated with it in the Lower Shabelle region including the district bridge, with several Somali soldiers being killed in the process,[160] with 31 dead and 38 wounded.[159] The militants overran government forces and captured key infrastructure including the town's main bridge and military barracks.[161] The attacks targeted military installations used by the Somali National Army, with the first of the attacks starting before dawn against the Hawo Abdi area 20 kilometers (12 miles) from Mogadishu, which Somalia with the help from other foreign militaries liberated several towns in the area earlier.[162] The militants also briefly seized the Lafoole neighbourhood of Afgooye and were also seen patrolling the Elasha Biyaha suburb of Mogadishu, both on what is called the "Afgooye corridor"[163] marking the first time in 10 years that al-Shabaab is approaching Mogadishu.[164][165] Over 150 government soldiers died or were wounded in these attacks.[113][159] Later that night the Ethiopian air force launched airstrikes using barrel bombs filled with fuel, targeting the towns of El-Ba'ad and Jilib. The initial strike struck El Ba'ad, killing a mother and her two children, while the second air raid targeted Jilib, the de facto al-Shabaab capital. The strike focused on the town's bustling market, which engulfed in flames, and a university established by the militant group for Islamic sharia studies.[166][167]

Al-Shabaab insurgent fires Ak-47 at federal government positions in Awdheegle, 15 March

On March 16, heavily armed al-Shabaab militants were spotted patrolling the road linking Mogadishu and Afgoye for the second consecutive night on Saturday, manning security checkpoints and searching vehicles.[168] Al-Shabaab militants seized Elasha Biyaha (Water Wells) area just outside Mogadishu, with federal troops, who offered no resistance, withdrawing and regrouping at the Siin-Dheer base, situated between the Water Wells and Tareedisho areas.[169] The militants swiftly occupied key locations, cut power to main streets, and instructed residents to remain indoors. The group also publicly vowed to capture Mogadishu by the 17th of Ramadan Hijri (March 17).[169] That same day al-Shabaab released a press statement revealing the civilian casualties of the Ethiopian air strikes of the night before.[170] The federal government also mobilized and deployed a contingent of the Somali Custodial Corps, traditionally responsible for safeguarding prisoners and thus untrained for combat, to Lower Shabelle region to support the federal government's defense near Awdheegle.[171] That same day al-Shabaab released a message from an SNA soldier who was captured by the group during their Cadaan Laxey attack. In the recording, the soldier states that his unit panicked, fled, and abandoned him during the assault, further highlighting the lack of coordination and morale within government forces.[172]

On March 17, the Somali Air Force conducted heavy airstrikes against al-Shabaab members in Jilib and around the Jilib District, where 20 senior and middle-ranking leaders and about 100 militia members were killed while they were holding a meeting.[173] These airstrikes also destroyed six military bases in the area of Jilib.[174] The Somali National Army repelled an attack against military positions in Awdheegle District of Lower Shabelle and the Buursha Sheekh area of Middle Shabelle, where the al-Shabaab militants suffered substantial losses.[175] Al-Shabaab also launched an attack on federal forces in the village of Nuur-Gaab near Adale, killing 3 SNA soldiers and wounding another 3.[113]

On March 18, the Federal Somali government issued a warning to all civilians in Jilib in the Middle Juba region to avoid targeted areas in the district and other areas controlled by al-Shabaab, this was given out through a press release that said "The attack in Jilib is part of the Federal Government of Somalia's operations targeting the remnants of terrorist groups hiding in limited areas of the country. As confirmed, no civilians were harmed in the Jilib attack. The people living in Jilib district and other areas where terrorists are taking refuge are once again called upon to stay away from enemy targets to prevent civilian casualties,".[176] On the same day, Turkey delivered Baykar Bayraktar Akıncı to Somalia, which are capable of carrying out airstrikes, strengthening the country's operations against al-Shabaab, with the Qatari government selling planes to Somalia for a price of up to $8 million.[177] In order to help with the fight against al-Shabaab, the Somali Government ordered hundreds of Somali police forces to the frontlines against the offensive, General Asad Osman Abdullahi, the chief of Somalia's Police Force, spearheading this operation as he created the send-off.[178] Al-Shabaab started making incursions onto Balcad road, a long road that connecting Mogadishu to Balad, with heavy fighting breaking out on the road between al-Shabaab militants and Somali government forces, when al-Shabaab first arrived in the area known as Aargada Hareeri Aadle, between Balad and Mogadishu, where 20 Somali government forces from Aliyale attempted to push al-Shabaab back, al-Shabaab entered the Elasha Biyaha area on the night of March 17, making movements there, then retreating. They were also seen in the Lafoole and Xawo Abdi areas in the Afgooye corridor between Mogadishu and Afgooye.[179] Al-Shabaab has also claimed responsibility for the bombing of the Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohammed's convoy near Villa Somalia while he was travelling to Mogadishu in the town of Adan Yabal during the day after he left the presidential palace, narrowly surviving.[180] Al-Shabaab clashed with Somali National Army soldiers after attempting to launch an assault against a government military base near Ceelbarwaaqo, located on the outskirts of the Middle Shabelle region where several al-Shabaab militants were killed.[181] Al-Shabaab also overran the town of Warta Dibi Samatar and its military base, killing 30 as well as capturing soldiers and a large amount of equipment.[113][182] Al-Shabaab militants also ambushed federal forces near Hareeri Caadle, killing 16 and wounding 12.[113] Al-Shabaab forces also attacked federal troops near Nuur-Gaab village, killing 4.[113]

On March 19, al-Shabaab militants launched mortars at the Halane military compound in Mogadishu near the Aden Adde International Airport, with some projectiles landing directly in and on the compound with other shells reportedly landing outside the compound's perimeter, the airport's alarm system was activated immediately following the attack, with heightening tensions in the vicinity.[113][183] The Somali government also sacked Defence Minister Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur after the US insisted that if he "wasn't removed, they would reconsider their security cooperation with Mogadishu against al-Shabaab," due to his ties with Turkey.[184] al-Shabaab militants also captured Gulane town, lifting a three-year-long siege on its strongholds in the central regions of Galgadud and Mudug.[185][186]

On March 20, al-Shabaab militants attempted to plant explosives on the outskirts of Daynile district in Mogadishu where al-Shabaab members illegally brought 8 mines into the city, 5 of sticky bombs, and 2 F1 bombs, though the members were arrested by the National Intelligence and Security Agency which included Nuur Muxudiin Jibril, Maxamed Cabdiraxmaan Maxamed, and Cali Maxamed Cabdi.[187][188] In the Middle Shabelle region, Somali Armed Forces conducted a special operation against al-Shabaab members two al-Shabaab members riding a Fekon motorcycle were killed in Galharuur area, under the Adan Yabal district of the Middle Shabelle region, after local forces blocked their path where the local police seized two AK-47 rifles from the slain men, the Fekon motorcycle, and other equipment, including bags used to hide from airstrikes.[189] An al-Shabaab member attempted to throw a grenade at the Gaheyr University in Daynile where the locals captured him before he could do damage, where they beat and humiliated him in public, torturing him, before they handed him off to local police forces.[190] Al-Shabaab militants stormed and seized the town of Sabiid and its SNA base in Lower Shabelle region, located 40km southwest of Mogadishu.[191][192][193][194] Al-Shabaab militants also targetted fleeing SNA soldiers with explosives, killing 4.[195] 26 Somali soldiers died in the sweeping attack, with a number injured including Deputy Commander of the SNA General Abdullahi Aden Hussein (Cirro).[30] A convoy of reinforcements on their way to Sabiid were also ambushed,[196] with Mohamed Nur Jareere, a senior military officer and the commander of the Awdheegle-based 146th battalion of the SNA's 14th October division being killed by an IED in the village of Ala-Yasir near No. 50 area while en route to assist the SNA garrison in Sabiid that were under attack.[197][26][27] Al-Shabaab also ambushed another reinforcement unit in Hawa Abdi and Elasha Biyaha between Afgooye and Mogadishu, wounding 2.[196][198] Al-Shabaab militants also set up roadblocks and checkpoints in Mogadishu's outskirts, on the road between Afgooye and Mogadishu.[194][199] Al-Shabaab militants also attacked the town of Shalambood in the Lower Shabelle region, capturing weapons and killing Haji Fareey, an SNA commander.[28] That night, al-Shabaab militants launched attacks on Somali military camps in Sabiid and Aanoole where the attacks were repelled by Somali National Army soldiers.[200]

On March 21, Somalia's National Intelligence and Security Agency announced that it, along with the Somali Air Force, carried out six airstrikes in the villages of Sabiid and Aanole, killing 82 Al Shabab fighters and injuring 19.[201] Al-Shabaab fighters captured the town of Bariire, situated between Awdheegle and Afgooye in Lower Shabelle region,[202] this was after the SNA fled the area after they were informed of a strong attack coming their way with a ground attack that took place the day before in the Sabiid area on the outskirts of Afgooye district, at least 26 soldiers from the SNA were killed in the attack and a large number of Somali soldiers were injured, which included the Deputy Commander of the Infantry Force, General Abdullahi Aden Hussein, and a planned operation in which a soldier from the SNA was killed took place on the outskirts of the Shalambood area, with another attack in Bay region, Al-Shabaab militants completed an attacked last night against Camp One, where Southwest State militias are stationed in the Diinsoor district.[203] Somali National Army announced that they alongside local tribal militias launched a large-scale operation against al-Shabaab militants in the Middle Shabelle region.[204] In the Baardale district, a man who claimed to be a member of al-Shabaab and threatened to murder everybody in the city was shot by security forces in the state of Gedo, this led to two civilians being injured.[205]

On March 22, Al-Shabaab's spokesperson Ali Dheere held an open press conference at a graduation ceremony of newly trained fighters from the Sheikh Abdullahi Ahmed Sahal Military Training Academy. Addressing the fighters, he highlighted the group's newly launched offensives reportedly aimed at seizing Mogadishu, stating: "The apostate forces trained in Turkey, those built up in Eritrea, those trained in Egypt, and those established by the United States—today, the apostates cannot even form a single organized unit for battle".[206] The same day Al-Shabaab targetted Ex-Control Afgooye in Mogadishu, killing 1 and injuring 3. Al-Shabaab also targeted an SNA post near the Coca-Cola company in Yaqshid district, injuring a soldier.[207] By this date, Al-Shabaab captured the villages of Xaawo Cabdi, Lafoole, and Ceelasha Biyaha near Afgooye.[208]

On March 23, Al-Shabaab fighters briefly enter the road connecting Mogadishu with Bal'ad, setting up checkpoints and searching vehicles. Senior commanders leading the fighters also addressed travelers using the road.[209] Al-Shabaab militants also captured the village of Ilbaq, located between Bal'ad and Jowhar, as well as its military base.[210] That same day Al-Shabaab militants ambushed an SNA convoy in the Hareri 'Aadle area, killing 16 and injuring 12. Al-Shabaab's Al-Kata'ib media also released video footage documenting the large ambush.[211]

On March 24, Al-Shabaab militants attacked and killed six Kenyan police officers during border clashes in the Fafi area, Garissa District.[212] The al-Shabaab militants attacked a camp housing police reservists, with the attackers were using various weapons.[213] An airstrike operation was conducted against officers and Al-Shabaab members where they specifically targeted a senior Al-Shabaab official named Ali Biyow Gaafow and his bodyguards, who were killed in the airstrike that took place last night in the Alkowsar area.[214] The federal government deployed additional troops to the Mogadishu-Balcad highway after Al-Shabab fighters were sighted along the route the day before.[215] Al-Shabaab also fired up to 10 mortar rounds at two SNA military bases near Afgooye, reportedly killing 8 Somali soldiers and wounding 6, with Hussein Haji Mohamed (Aw Koombe), an army officer, among the dead.[216][217][218] An Al-Shabaab IED in the Taredisho area on the outskirts of Mogadishu struck a vehicle carrying federal troops, killing 4 and wounding another 3.[219] Another IED in the village of Buurane in Middle Shabelle region killed two Burundian soldiers under AUSSOM, a contingent that is scheduled to leave.[220] The Habr Gidir and Galje'el clans also donated camels to Al-Shabaab fighters on the frontline.[221]

On March 25, al-Shabaab relocated operations into the Bay and Bakool regions after certain defeats in the Middle Shabelle region with a statement from General Hassan Isaaq Omar, commonly known as Hassan Baidoa, the commander of the Somali National Army's (SNA) 60th Division, that security forces are outlooking and maintaining safety in the region to not allow further advances.[222] Somali security forces revealed that they arrested Abdullahi Ahmed Mohamed, a key operative in al-Shabaab's media efforts, while on March 22, 2025, in Waajid, Bakool region, while filming a failed attack on a government military base.[223] 30 Al-Shabaab militants raided the Kenyan village of Iresuki village, Mandera County, engaging gunfire with National Police Reservists, killing one, Abdikher Ibrahim.[224] The Tunni clan in Kunyo Barrow donated 10 camels as well as dates to Al-Shabaab fighters fighting on the frontlines in Lower Shabelle region.[225]

On March 26, Al-Shabaab fighters recaptured the town of Masajid Ali Gaduud near Adale.[226] The town was captured by Somali forces in 2022, but it's recapture by al-Shabaab is considered a significant blow to Somali forces after heavy confrontation.[227] The confrontation includes heavy bombing of a Somali military base located in Masjid Ali Gaduud, with both sides facing heavy loses, initial reports suggest that government forces managed to repel the first wave of the assault, but the town fell into al-Shabaab control.[228] Somali forces fled to Gil Ghab, 10 kilometers from Haji Ali which Al-Shabaab militants also captured.[229]

On March 27, Somali forces and al-Shabaab forces clash in the Abagbeeday area, about 20 kilometers (12.5 miles) east of Hudur district in the Bakool region, according to Colonel Younis Adan Hassan, commander of the 9th Brigade, stated that the Somali National Army inflicted significant losses against al-Shabaab and seized weapons and military equipment during the operation.[230] Somali forces claimed to took the town of Masajid Ali Guduud back from al-Shabaab militants with Somali Ministry of Defence spokesman Sheikh Abukar Mohamed holding a press conference and exclaimed that government and local forces repelled an attack by Al-Shabaab, and indicated that heavy losses were inflicted.[231]

On March 29, Al-Shabaab’s Al-Kata’ib released footage documenting their earlier offensive to capture the Sabiid area near Afgooye in Lower Shabelle. They also released a video showing Al-Shabaab fighters in the Towfiiq district of the “Ali Guduud Mosque” in Middle Shabelle, featuring a speech by Abgaal clan leader Abdullahi Ali Caraaye.[232] The Somali National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) announced that a joint air and ground operation in the Geelgub area of Middle Shabelle resulted in the death of 21 Al-Shabaab members, including senior leaders and fighters. The operation was conducted in coordination with local Ma’awisley militia and federal forces. NISA reiterated its warning to the public to avoid Al-Shabaab active areas, and stated that these areas remain legitimate targets. The operation is part of a broader campaign to dismantle Al-Shabaab’s strongholds, although the group remains a significant threat, launching deadly attacks in rural regions.[233] The Somali Ministry of Defense announced the results of recent operations against Al-Shabaab in the Shabelle regions. Government forces claim to have retaken Sabiib and Canoole in Lower Shabelle, inflicting heavy defeats on Al-Shabaab and conducting clearance operations, while Al-Shabaab stated that they had repelled the government offensive.[234] Another operation in Ceelgub, Middle Shabelle, reportedly killed 30 militants, and a third operation in Buus Aduur resulted in two more Al-Shabaab deaths.[235]

On March 30, Somali commandos from the Danab Brigade and Jubaland Dervish Force conducted a joint operation in Lower Juba, targeting Al-Shabaab. The operation destroyed extortion centers and bases used by the group, including areas where civilians were forced to collect Zakatul Fitri. Military officials reported that the allied forces inflicted losses on Al-Shabaab during the operation.[236][237] Al-Shabaab militants attacked Somali Federal Government soldiers operating near Dhusamareb in the Galgaduud region, resulting in the deaths of at least six soldiers. The militants also captured six rifles and ammunition from the killed soldiers.[238] The Somali National Army, with the support of local forces and international partners, conducted an air and ground operation in the Masaajid Ali Gaduud forested area in Middle Shabelle, an area recently attacked by Al-Shabaab. The government reported the operation has caused significant losses for Al-Shabaab, who reportedly still maintain a presence in the strategic area.[239]

On March 31, Al-Shabaab cancelled its annual Eid military parade, a display of their military strength, reportedly due to the impact of ongoing airstrikes. No troops or officials were seen in parade grounds in Al-Shabaab controlled areas, and leaders only participated in Eid celebrations via voice messages, avoiding public appearances. This absence, coupled with the lack of any statement from Al-Shabaab in the conflict-ridden Middle Shabelle region, suggests that airstrikes have significantly impacted the group’s power and movement, hindering their ability to operate publicly.[240][241] One of these audio messages was by Sheikh Mahad Warsame Abu Abdirahman, one of the general leaders of Al-Shabaab.[242]

April

[edit]

On April 1, the Somali National Army with cooperation of Jubaland conducted operations against al-Shabaab, with Somali forces destroying crucial checkpoints that were run by al-Shabaab in the Lower Juba to collect Zakatul Fitr for Ramadan.[243] The Somali army killed around 70 al-Shabaab militants in the Shabelle region after the conducting of a separate operation.[244] During the time of these operations, tensions have escalated in the Sabiid area near Afgooye in Lower Shabelle between Somali government forces and Al-Shabaab, causing residents to flee in fear of imminent conflict. Al-Shabaab, which took over Sabiid a week ago, has previously forced government forces to withdraw due to intense attacks. Escalating tensions are also causing displacement in nearby Awdheegle, where Somali forces have unsuccessfully tried to regain control. Al-Shabaab has intensified its operations during Ramadan, regaining control of several areas in Lower and Middle Shabelle, significantly undermining the Somali government’s authority.[245]

High rates of desertion among Somalia’s security forces have drawn strong condemnation from government religious leaders and officials. On 5 April, senior government cleric Sheikh Ali Wajis publicly denounced soldiers who fled their posts following militant attacks, labeling them apostates and urging punitive actions such as arrest. His statements were supported by Custodial Corps commander who warned that deserters—and their families, including parents—could face arrest or execution. Analysts have cautioned that declining military resolve may have severe consequences and that disparaging statements from government officials are eroding Somali army morale.[246]

On April 4, Jubaland deployed a large force of elite Dervish troops to northern Lower Juba to intensify operations against Al-Shabaab. The move follows a successful joint assault by Somali Danab Commandos and Jubaland forces that destroyed a key militant base. State media showed troops joining Somali and international forces in the offensive. Jubaland leaders pledged to target Al-Shabaab strongholds across Lower and Middle Juba to reclaim the regions and restore civilian governance. The campaign follows a recent airstrike on Jilib, Al-Shabaab’s southern stronghold, which reportedly disrupted the group’s leadership. This marks an expanded effort to dismantle Al-Shabaab’s grip on southern Somalia.[247]

On April 2, Al-Shabaab released footage showing its fighters still in control of Sabiid despite the federal government claiming to have recaptured the town.[234]

On April 5, Somali National Army commander Nur Farey of the 14 October Battalion was assassinated in Lower Shabelle. Farey had been taking lead in coordinating government operations in the region[248] and had played a vital role in holding the line against the insurgent offensive. His death was consequently a significant blow to the morale of the army.[249] That same day the heavily fortified presidential palace Villa Somalia was hit with a mortar barrage.[250] The attack also targeted other federal government facilities.[251] The mortar attack injured 6.[252] The Somali Air Force alongside NISA executed air strikes in 6 different locations killing a total of 80 al-Shabaab militants, with the first operation taking place in the Sabiid and Canoole areas of the Lower Shabelle region, the bombings were accompanied by a direct operation carried out by NISA ground forces, and 21 Al-Shabaab were killed, the second operation took place at a meeting place of senior Al-Shabaab leaders in the Al-Kawthar district of Middle Shabelle region, and all the leaders present there were killed, according to NISA, the third operation took place in Bursha Sheikh area of ​​Middle Shabelle region, and more than 19 members, including leaders and militia members belonging to Al-Shabaab , were killed, the fourth operation took place in the same Bursha Sheikh area of ​​Middle Shabelle region, and 17 members of Al-Shabaab were killed, who were isolated in the area when they were targeted, some of whom had injuries from the previous attack, the fifth operation took place in Aw-baalle area of ​​Middle Shabelle region, and a number of FEKON motorcycles loaded with mines were destroyed, while 7 members of the were killed on the spot, according to the NISA press release, and the sixth operation took place near the Al-Kawthar district, when local defense forces attacked a location where militants were stationed. Following the attack, NISA carried out airstrikes in the same area, killing 13 Al-Shabaab members.[253] Clashes took place on the outskirts of Masagaway in the Galgaduud region where one Somali soldier was killed and guns with ammunition were seized.[254] Al-Shabaab attacked a military camp owned by the Somali forces in the Labagaras area of ​​the Middle Shabelle region, killing several federal forces.[255]

Timeline of captured locations

[edit]

February[256]

[edit]
  • Al-Kowthar in Middle Shabelle (February 20)
  • Ceel Baraf (El-Baraf) in Middle Shabelle (February 21)
  • Miir Taqwa in Middle Shabelle (February 21)
  • Ali Fol Dheer in Middle Shabelle (February 22)
  • El Ali Ahmed in Middle Shabelle (February 25)
  • Daaru Nicma in Middle Shabelle (February 26)
  • Bal'Ad (Balcad) in Middle Shabelle (February 28)

March

[edit]
  • Biyo Cadde in Middle Shabelle (March 6)
  • War Ciise in Middle Shabelle (March 7)
  • Boos Hareri in Middle Shabelle (March 9)
  • Guulane in Middle Shabelle (March 21)
  • Awdheegle in Lower Shabelle (March 24)
  • Masaajid Cali Guduud in Middle Shabelle (March 26)
  • Sabiid in Lower Shabelle (March 30)

April

[edit]
  • Bariire in Lower Shabelle (April 5)

Reactions

[edit]

Due to the attacks, on March 4, 2025, the United Nations Security Council extended their sanctions against al-Shabaab focusing on illegal arms exports and charcoal exports.[257] The sanctions are going to be in effect until December 13, 2025, with the renewal of a committee of experts that will monitor the sanctions on al-Shabaab until January 13, 2026.[258]

Because of al-Shabaab's offensive, Puntland's Minister of Justice and Religious Affairs, Mohamed Abdiwahaab, accused the Federal Government of Somalia of not properly stopping attacks and not doing enough against al-Shabaab.[259] Though, on March 5, 2025, Ahmed Mohamed Islam made a press release stating that they would fight alongside Somali government military forces and the Ma'awisley clan militias in Jubaland against al-Shabaab.[260]

On March 5, 2025, former President of Somalia, Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, former Prime Minister, Hassan Ali Khaire, and member of the Somali parliament, Abdirahman Abdishakur Warsame issued a joint press statement supporting the brave forces fighting against al-Shabaab and the Islamic State.[261] Though they said that the President of Somalia, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, had engaged in political conflict with some of the states of Somalia, which had stalled the operations against al-Shabaab.[262]

After the offensive expanded, the United States Embassy in Somalia warned of the possibility of terrorist attacks including the Aden Adde International Airport in the capital, Mogadishu calling on American citizens in Somalia to exercise caution and avoid gatherings and demonstrations. It also announced the cancellation of all movements of its employees until further notice, as part of precautionary measures to confront potential threats.[263] The Somali government attempted to downplay the warning with the Somali Minister of Transport and Civil Aviation, Fardowsa Osman Egal, insisting there was no imminent threat that justified the flight cancellations. "There is no security situation that warrants the suspension of international flights to Mogadishu," Egal told Voice of America Somali. "We continue to receive complete intelligence briefings, and no direct threats have been relayed to us."[264] The President of Somalia, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, accused the United States of sending out these alerts to undermine and destabilize the Somali government and to cause mass paranoia and panic.[265] Turkish Airlines as a result temporarily suspended all flights to Somalia's capital Mogadishu until March 12 following the US terror alert,[266][267] while Qatar Airways suspended all flight to Mogadishu indefinitely.[268]

On March 6, 2025, the Somalia's Council of Ministers expanded security in Mogadishu due to the advances by al-Shabaab and to fight against al-Shabaab.[269]

On March 15, 2025, Puntland's Minister of Information, Mohamud Aydid Diri, warned Somalia might undergo the same fate that happened with Afghanistan: "Most American diplomats have been evacuated. We fear Mogadishu could face the same fate as Afghanistan."[270]

Though supporting Somalia with air strikes against al-Shabaab, Ethiopia, on March 17, 2025, officially stated they would not put infantry troops into Somalia.[271] On the same day, the President of Hirshabelle State, Ali Abdullahi Hussein, who recently returned to his office for a brief period, held a virtual meeting with the United States Ambassador to Somalia, Mr. Richard H. Riley where they discussed the ongoing military operations against extremist groups in Hirshabelle including al-Shabaab and the Islamic State in Somalia.[272]

On March 21, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud with the governor of Middle Shabelle Region, the former governor of that region, the governor of Yaaqshiid district in Mogadishu, military officers, and other officials conducted a meeting in the Adale District about accelerating the ongoing counter-terrorism operation in HirShabelle with plans on attempting to eliminate al-Shabaab from Middle Shabelle before Eid al-Fitr.[273]

On March 28, the director of the National Security and Intelligence Agency, Abdullahi Mohamed Ali Sambaloolshe, accompanied by Hirshabelle Vice President Yusuf Ahmed Hagar Dabageed, held a meeting in the Moqokori District with the traditional elders of that district, with the meeting focused on strengthening security and accelerating operations against Al-Shabaab, especially in the Middle Shabelle region where operations against Al-Shabaab are underway.[274] This was proceeded by former intelligence chief Fahad Yasin urged President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to unite opposition politicians and convene a national forum to develop a unified counter-terrorism strategy. He stated his readiness to set aside political differences, offer advice, and demonstrate solidarity to combat terrorism. Fahad Yasin requested an open and unconditional forum for all parties to contribute to the country’s safety, emphasizing the need for unity and putting aside divisive issues.[275] On the same day, the Commander of the Somali Police Force, Brigadier General Asad Osman Abdullahi, and his deputy chaired a meeting to discuss accelerating the fight against Al-Shabaab and improving national security. The meeting reviewed security reports from across the country, discussing the successes and challenges in combating Al-Shabaab. The Commander thanked the public for their support and urged officers to act quickly on public information to counter Al-Shabaab’s attacks. This meeting occurs as the Somali government intensifies its efforts against Al-Shabaab, particularly following recent attacks in the Middle and Lower Shabelle regions.[276]

On March 30, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is calling for national unity among political leaders, including rivals, to strengthen the fight against Al-Shabaab and advance Somalia’s federal system. He emphasized the need for broad political consensus and inclusion in security and state-building efforts. This appeal comes amid tensions with federal member states and former presidents who have criticized the current administration’s handling of elections, constitutional principles, and the war on Al-Shabaab. The call for unity follows recent military successes against Al-Shabaab but acknowledges the group’s continued threat and the need for a unified counterterrorism strategy to combat the long-standing insurgency.[277]

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