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2025 Runcorn and Helsby by-election

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2025 Runcorn and Helsby by-election
← 2024 1 May 2025 Next →
Runcorn and Helsby constituency
Turnout46.2% (Decrease12.5 pp)
  First party Second party
 
Ref
Lab
Candidate Sarah Pochin Karen Shore
Party Reform UK Labour
Popular vote 12,645 12,639
Percentage 38.72% 38.70%
Swing Increase20.6 pp Decrease14.2pp
  Third party Fourth party
 
Con
Grn
Candidate Sean Houlston Chris Copeman
Party Conservative Green
Popular vote 2,341 2,314
Percentage 7.2% 7.1%
Swing Decrease8.8 pp Increase0.7 pp
Boundary of Runcorn and Helsby in North West England
MP before election

Mike Amesbury
Independent[a]

Elected MP

Sarah Pochin
Reform UK

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Runcorn and Helsby was held on 1 May 2025, the same day as local elections in England. The constituency's MP, Mike Amesbury, was sentenced on 24 February 2025 to ten weeks in prison for assault, which was reduced on appeal to a suspended sentence. This would have triggered a recall petition but Amesbury resigned his seat on 17 March 2025. In the 2024 general election, this was Labour's sixteenth safest seat.

Following a recount, Sarah Pochin of Reform UK won the by-election with a majority of six votes, overturning a Labour majority of 14,696 votes in the last general election. It was the closest by-election result in British history.

Background

[edit]

Amesbury was first elected as Member of Parliament (MP) for Weaver Vale at the 2017 general election.[1] Weaver Vale was abolished in the 2023 review of Westminster constituencies and largely replaced by the new constituency of Runcorn and Helsby.[2] Amesbury was elected to represent Runcorn and Helsby at the 2024 general election with a majority of almost 15,000.[3]

Constituency profile

[edit]

Runcorn and Helsby was created for the 2024 general election as part of the 2023 review of Westminster constituencies, primarily from the seats of Weaver Vale and Halton, with smaller parts of City of Chester and Ellesmere Port and Neston. The town of Runcorn represents approximately two-thirds of the seat, with the remainder primarily being commuter towns. It has been described as suffering the consequences of deindustrialisation.[4]

Assault charges and resignation

[edit]
Main article: Mike Amesbury § Assault conviction

In the early hours of 26 October 2024, Amesbury was filmed in Frodsham repeatedly punching a man.[5][6] Pending an investigation, he was suspended from the Labour Party.[6][7] On 7 November 2024, Amesbury was charged with common assault.[8] He pleaded guilty to assault and subsequently resigned from the Labour Party.[9] On 24 February 2025, he was sentenced to ten weeks' imprisonment. On 27 February, an appeal was heard, and the sentence was suspended, although no alteration to the length of the sentence was made.[10] The Recall of MPs Act 2015 is triggered by any custodial sentence, even if suspended, meaning a recall petition would be initiated.[11][12][13][14]

Labour and Reform UK were among those who called for Amesbury to resign to remove the need for a recall petition and directly trigger a by-election.[15][12] On 10 March 2025, Amesbury said he would stand down at the earliest opportunity.[16][17] He officially tendered his resignation on 17 March 2025[18] and was appointed steward of the Chiltern Hundreds the same day.[19] The writ to trigger the by-election was tendered on 27 March 2025, with the by-election scheduled for 1 May 2025, the same day as local elections in England. It was the first by-election since Keir Starmer took office as prime minister in July 2024.[20]

Campaign

[edit]

The by-election was characterised in the media as a fight between Labour and Reform UK.[21][22] According to the William Hill bookmakers, as of 10 March, Reform UK were the favourites to win the by-election with 4/9 odds, compared to Labour at 7/4 and the Conservatives at 16/1.[23]

Candidates

[edit]

The Labour Party opened its candidate selection process on 8 March 2025 and closed nominations on 9 March 2025.[24] On 13 March, they announced Karen Shore, a former teacher and deputy leader of Cheshire West and Chester Council, as their candidate.[25][26]

On 24 March 2025, Reform UK announced Sarah Pochin, a former Cheshire East Conservative Party councillor before being expelled from the party in 2020, as their candidate.[27] Pochin stood as a Conservative Party candidate in the 2017 general election for the constituency of Bolton South East.[28] After being expelled from the Conservatives in 2020, she joined the local Independent Group; however, she was also expelled from that group in October 2022 after it emerged that she had re-joined the Conservative Party to vote in its leadership election.[29] According to Reform UK, she has previously worked for Shell International.[30]

The Conservative Party invited by-election candidates to step forward in February before Amesbury's sentencing.[31][32] On 16 March, they announced Sean Houlston, a National Federation of Builders executive and former candidate for the neighbouring seat of Widnes and Halewood, as their candidate.[33]

The Green Party selected their general election candidate, Chris Copeman, a local councillor in Helsby.[34] On 20 March 2025, the Liberal Democrats selected their candidate, Paul Duffy, a former candidate for Cheshire Police and Crime Commissioner in 2024.[35] On 8 March 2025, Peter Ford, a former British ambassador to Syria and Bahrain from Runcorn, announced his intention to stand for the Workers Party of Britain.[36]

Local finance manager Michael Williams stood as an independent candidate,[37] as did honorary alderman Alan McKie.[38][39] The Liberal Party candidate was Danny Clarke, a former local Conservative Party chairman who has lived in Runcorn for over 20 years.[40] The Volt UK candidate was Jason Hughes, the party's chairman.[41] Nominations closed at 16:00 on 2 April.[42]

Result

[edit]
2025 Runcorn and Helsby by-election
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Reform UK Sarah Pochin 12,645 38.72 +20.58
Labour Karen Shore 12,639 38.70 −14.23
Conservative Sean Houlston 2,341 7.17 −8.83
Green Chris Copeman 2,314 7.09 +0.66
Liberal Democrats Paul Duffy 942 2.88 −2.2
Liberal Dan Clarke 454 1.39 +0.26
Independent Michael Williams 363 1.11 N/A
Independent Alan McKie 269 0.82 N/A
Workers Party Peter Ford 164 0.50 N/A
Rejoin EU John Stevens 129 0.40 N/A
Monster Raving Loony Howling Laud Hope 128 0.39 N/A
English Democrat Catherine Blaiklock 95 0.29 N/A
SDP Paul Andrew Murphy 68 0.21 −0.07
Volt Jason Philip Hughes 54 0.17 N/A
English Constitution Party Graham Harry Moore 50 0.15 N/A
Rejected ballots 85
Majority 6 0.02 N/A
Turnout 32,655 46.2 −12.5
Reform UK gain from Labour Swing +17.4

Reform overturned Labour's 14,696-vote majority from the last general election within 10 months.[43] The results were significantly delayed when a recount was requested by Labour, after Reform UK led by just four votes in the first tally. It was the closest by-election result in British history, with the previous closest, in Berwick-upon-Tweed in 1973, won by 57 votes.[44] Pochin is the first non-Labour MP elected in Runcorn in over fifty years.[45]

Reaction

[edit]

The result has been categorised as a stunning victory for Reform UK,[46] as well as a major blow to incumbent Prime Minister Keir Starmer, with many Labour MPs singling out the cuts to winter fuel payments as a significant factor in the party's defeat. Former shadow chancellor John McDonnell argued that recent government cuts had made voters feel that the party had turned its back on them. Richard Burgon, Labour MP for Leeds East, called the result "entirely avoidable".[47] Starmer acknowledged that the result was disappointing but defended his government's decisions.[48] Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK, described the result as a "very big moment" for his party. He also attributed Labour's defeat to a loss of confidence in Starmer's governance, especially voter frustration on immigration.[49]

Opinion polls

[edit]

The results of opinion polls, compared with the outcome of the 2024 general election, were as follows:

Pollster Date(s)
conducted 		Sample
size 		Lab Reform Con Green Lib Dem Others Lead
2025 by-election 1 May 2025 – 38.70% 38.72% 7.17% 7.09% 2.88% 5.44% 0.02
FindOutNow 12–14 Mar 2025 147 33% 36% 12% 7% 7% 5% 3
Lord Ashcroft 3–12 Mar 2025 702 35% 40% 10% 6% 8% 2% 5
2024 general election 4 Jul 2024 – 52.9% 18.1% 16.0% 6.4% 5.1% 1.4% 34.8

Previous result

[edit]
This section is transcluded from Runcorn and Helsby (UK Parliament constituency). (edit | history)
General election 2024: Runcorn and Helsby[50][51]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Mike Amesbury 22,358 52.9 +4.1
Reform UK Jason Moorcroft 7,662 18.1 +13.3
Conservative Jade Marsden 6,756 16.0 –20.8
Green Chris Copeman 2,715 6.4 +3.5
Liberal Democrats Chris Rowe 2,149 5.1 –1.6
Liberal Danny Clarke 479 1.1 N/A
SDP Paul Murphy 116 0.3 N/A
Rejected ballots 171
Majority 14,696 34.8 +22.9
Turnout 42,235 58.7 –9.5
Registered electors 71,955
Labour hold Swing –4.6

Changes are from the notional results of the 2019 election on the new boundaries.[52]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Although elected for Labour in 2024, Amesbury was sitting as an independent MP at the time of his resignation.

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Election results 2017: Labour gains Weaver Vale, Warrington South and Crewe and Nantwich". BBC News. 9 June 2017. Retrieved 30 October 2024.
  2. ^ "UK Parliament election results: Notional election for the constituency of Runcorn and Helsby on 12 December 2019". UK Parliament election results. Retrieved 31 October 2024.
  3. ^ "Runcorn and Helsby Results – General Election 2024". BBC News. Retrieved 9 July 2024.
  4. ^ Walker, Ben (11 March 2025). "A Reform Labour showdown looms in the Runcorn by-election". New Statesman. Retrieved 12 March 2025.
  5. ^ Kampfner, Constance (28 October 2024). "Man punched by Mike Amesbury in argument about bridge is named". The Times. Retrieved 28 October 2024.
  6. ^ a b Whannel, Kate; Farley, Harry (27 October 2024). "Labour suspends MP after CCTV appears to show him punching man". BBC News. Retrieved 27 October 2024.
  7. ^ Haslam, Ben; Thorp, Liam (27 October 2024). "Labour suspends Runcorn MP Mike Amesbury over punch video". Liverpool Echo. Retrieved 27 October 2024.
  8. ^ "MP Mike Amesbury charged with street assault". BBC News. 7 November 2024. Retrieved 7 November 2024.
  9. ^ Timan, Joseph (16 January 2025). "MP Mike Amesbury resigns from Labour after pleading guilty to assault". Manchester Evening News.
  10. ^ "Jailed MP Mike Amesbury's sentence suspended". BBC News. 27 February 2025. Retrieved 27 February 2025.
  11. ^ Mullen, Tom; Gawne, Ewan; Witherington, Erica; Watterson, Kaleigh (24 February 2025). "MP Mike Amesbury jailed for 10 weeks for punching constituent in street". BBC News.
  12. ^ a b Corbett, Helen (25 February 2025). "Cooper says jailed ex-Labour MP Amesbury should resign or face recall petition". The Standard.
  13. ^ "What happens now as former Labour MP Mike Amesbury is jailed for punching a man". Runcorn: ITV News. 24 February 2025.
  14. ^ Watterson, Kaleigh (28 February 2025). "Convicted MP Mike Amesbury: What happens now". BBC News.
  15. ^ Culbertson, Alix (25 February 2025). "Suspended Labour MP Mike Amesbury jailed after punching man in street". Sky News.
  16. ^ Miller, Hannah; Kemp, Phil; Francis, Sam (10 March 2025). "Mike Amesbury to stand down as MP over assault conviction". BBC News. Retrieved 10 March 2025.
  17. ^ Crerar, Pippa (10 March 2025). "Mike Amesbury resigns as MP, triggering byelection". The Guardian. Retrieved 10 March 2025.
  18. ^ "Mike Amesbury tenders resignation as Runcorn MP after 'deeply regrettable incident'". Runcorn and Widnes World. 17 March 2025. Retrieved 17 March 2025.
  19. ^ "Three Hundreds of Chiltern: Michael Lee Amesbury". GOV.UK. Retrieved 18 March 2025.
  20. ^ "Runcorn by-election confirmed for 1 May". Sky News. 27 March 2025. Retrieved 27 March 2025. The by-election - the first of this parliament - will take place on 1 May, the same date as the local elections, it has been confirmed.
  21. ^ Swinford, Steven (10 March 2025). "Mike Amesbury's resignation triggers Runcorn and Helsby by-election". The Times. Retrieved 11 March 2025.
  22. ^ Walker, Ben (11 March 2025). "A Reform Labour showdown looms in the Runcorn by-election". New Statesman. Retrieved 11 March 2025.
  23. ^ Belger, Tom (10 March 2025). "Labour longlists Runcorn candidates as Amesbury to quit, triggering by-election". LabourList. Retrieved 11 March 2025.
  24. ^ Green, Daniel (8 March 2025). "Runcorn and Helsby: Labour begins candidate selection process for potential by-election". LabourList. Retrieved 10 March 2025.
  25. ^ Philbin, Paul (13 March 2025). "Labour announces candidate for expected by-election in Runcorn and Helsby". Liverpool Echo. Retrieved 13 March 2025.
  26. ^ Granada (14 March 2025). "Labour selects Karen Shore for Runcorn and Helsby by-election to replace shamed Mike Amesbury". ITVX.
  27. ^ Watterson, Kaleigh (24 March 2025). "Reform name candidate for by-election". BBC News. Retrieved 24 March 2025.
  28. ^ Smith, Mark (24 March 2025). "Nigel Farage unveils Reform candidate for Runcorn and Helsby". Runcorn and Widnes World. Retrieved 24 March 2025.
  29. ^ Ryan, Belinda (4 October 2022). "Cheshire East councillor suspended from Independent Group". Northwich and Winsford Guardian. Retrieved 24 March 2025.
  30. ^ Lynch, David (24 March 2025). "Reform UK selects Runcorn candidate to challenge Labour at by-election". The Independent. Retrieved 24 March 2025.
  31. ^ Craig, Jon (24 February 2025). "Reform in contention in potential nightmare by-election for Labour". Sky News.
  32. ^ Grierson, Jamie (24 February 2025). "MP Mike Amesbury sentenced to 10 weeks in prison for assault". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 24 February 2025.
  33. ^ "Conservatives pick candidate for Runcorn following Mike Amesbury's resignation". Runcorn and Widnes World. 16 March 2025. Retrieved 17 March 2025.
  34. ^ Al-Othman, Hannah (15 March 2025). "'I like Nigel Farage': Runcorn and Helsby byelection could be big test for Starmer". The Guardian. Retrieved 15 March 2025.
  35. ^ "Runcorn and Helsby by-election: Paul Duffy stands for Lib Dems". BBC News. 22 March 2025.
  36. ^ Dean, Lois (14 March 2025). "Labour picks candidate to fight Runcorn seat following shaming of Mike Amesbury". Runcorn and Widnes World. Retrieved 14 March 2025.
  37. ^ Wilcox, Ella (21 March 2025). "Financial manager to stand as independent in Runcorn by-election". Runcorn and Widnes World. Retrieved 21 March 2025.
  38. ^ "Alan McKie for Runcorn and Helsby in the UK Parliament elections". whocanivotefor.co.uk. Retrieved 2 May 2025.
  39. ^ "About". Alan McKie. Retrieved 2 May 2025.
  40. ^ "Former Conservative chairman to stand in Runcorn by-election as Liberal candidate". Runcorn and Widnes World. 20 March 2025.
  41. ^ "Vote Volt in the Runcorn & Helsby by-election on 1st May". Volt UK. Retrieved 2 May 2025.
  42. ^ https://www3.halton.gov.uk/Documents/council%20and%20democracy/elections/NOE%201%20May%202025.pdf
  43. ^ Halliday, Josh (2 May 2025). "Reform wins Runcorn byelection by just six votes in blow to Labour". The Guardian.
  44. ^ "Runcorn and Helsby by-election: Reform beats Labour by just six votes". BBC News. 2 May 2025.
  45. ^ Halliday, Josh; Quinn, Ben (2 May 2025). "'They really are all horrible': political anger marks Reform UK's Runcorn win". The Guardian. Retrieved 3 May 2025.
  46. ^ Walker, Jonathan (2 May 2025). "'Reform's remarkable election wins show Nigel Farage really can become Prime Minister'". The Daily Express. Retrieved 3 May 2025.
  47. ^ Brown, Faye (2 May 2025). "'Starmer suffers defeat in first by-election as Reform takes Runcorn and Helsby'". Sky News. Retrieved 3 May 2025.
  48. ^ Lloyd, Nina (2 May 2025). "Starmer says 'I get it' after Labour's 'disappointing' Runcorn defeat". The Independent. Retrieved 3 May 2025.
  49. ^ Hughes, David (2 May 2025). "'Reform beats Labour by six votes to take Runcorn and Helsby'". The Independent. Retrieved 3 May 2025.
  50. ^ "Runcorn and Helsby Results - General Election 2024". BBC News. Retrieved 9 July 2024.
  51. ^ "Election Results for Runcorn and Helsby". Halton Borough Council. 4 July 2024.
  52. ^ "Notional election for the constituency of Runcorn and Helsby". UK Parliament.
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