2025 Guinea-Bissau general election
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All 102 seats in the National People's Assembly 52 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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General elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on 23 November 2025 to elect the president and National People's Assembly.[1] There were originally planned to be separate parliamentary and presidential elections; parliamentary elections had been scheduled for 24 November 2024 after President Umaro Sissoco Embaló dissolved the opposition-controlled parliament on 4 December 2023, saying an "attempted coup" had prevented him from returning home from COP28 climate conference.[2] However, Embaló postponed the parliamentary elections in early November 2024.[3] Presidential elections had been scheduled for December 2024,[4][5] but were later also postponed and Embaló's term ended on 27 February 2025. However, he remained in power and intends to run for re-election in late 2025. The opposition and civil society have been calling it an "institutional coup."[6]
Background
[edit]In 2019 Umaro Sissoco Embaló won the presidential election runoff vote against Domingos Simões Pereira, 54% to 46%. Simões Pereira disputed the results.[7] Although neither the supreme court of Guinea-Bissau nor the parliament had given its approval for the official swearing-in ceremony, Embaló had organized an alternative swearing-in ceremony in a hotel in Bissau to announce himself as legal president of Guinea-Bissau.[8] Several politicians in Guinea-Bissau, including prime minister Aristides Gomes, accused Embaló of arranging a coup d'état, although outgoing president Vaz stepped down to allow Embaló to take power.[9]
In 2022 Embaló dissolved parliament, leading to an opposition victory in the 2023 parliamentary elections.[10] In response to the dissolution, parliamentary speaker Domingos Simões Pereira accused the president of carrying out a "constitutional coup d'état."[11] Incumbent president Embaló would go on to fire the prime minister Geraldo Martins, who was appointed by the PAIGC-led National Assembly and instead appoint Rui Duarte de Barros by presidential decree.[12]
Embaló dissolved parliament again on 4 December 2023, saying an "attempted coup" had prevented him from returning home from COP28 climate conference.[2] This was the second early dissolution by Embaló, with his first dissolution of parliament being in 2022, leading to an opposition victory in the 2023 parliamentary election.[10] In response to the dissolution, parliamentary speaker Domingos Simões Pereira accused the president of carrying out a "constitutional coup d'état."[11] Incumbent president Embaló would go on to fire the prime minister Geraldo Martins, who was appointed by the PAIGC-led National Assembly and instead appoint Rui Duarte de Barros by presidential decree.[12]
Embaló, who is eligible to run for a second term,[13] has given contradictory signs about his intentions. In September 2024, after a meeting of the Council of Ministers, he announced that he decided not to run after a conversation with his wife,[14] but in November 2024 he stated his intention to remain as president "for many years", beyond 2030.[15]
On 23 February 2025, Embaló set the date of the presidential and legislative election at 30 November 2025. At the same time, disputes arose over when his term as president would end, as opposition groups said his term expires on 27 February 2025, while the Supreme Court ruled that it expires on 4 September 2025.[16] On 3 March, Embaló announced that he would run again for president in the election.[17]
Electoral system
[edit]The president is elected using the two-round system.[18] Article 33 of Guinea-Bissau's Electoral Law prohibits the publishing of any opinion polls.[19]
The 102 members of the National People's Assembly are elected by two methods; 100 by closed list proportional representation from 27 multi-member constituencies and two from single-member constituencies representing expatriate citizens in Africa and Europe.[20]
Issues
[edit]Various opposition parties have criticized incumbent president Embaló, accusing him of authoritarianism and wanting to establish a dictatorship.[3] Beyond the outcome of the elections, the broader narrative in Guinea-Bissau in 2024 will revolve around the imperative of establishing and maintaining momentum for a stable system of governance. Central to this narrative will be the efforts to fortify institutional frameworks that serve as guardrails against the abuse of power.[21]
According to observers, the conditions for elections have not been met due to organisational challenges. One major issue is the expiration of the terms of the commission members responsible for overseeing elections. Typically, these members would be appointed by parliament, however since the parliament has been dissolved, there is no entity in place to facilitate the appointment of new commission members.[12]
References
[edit]- ^ "Guinea-Bissau to hold presidential and legislative vote on November 23". Reuters.
- ^ a b "Guinea-Bissau's president dissolves parliament after 'attempted coup'". France 24. 4 December 2023. Retrieved 26 March 2024.
- ^ a b "Presidente da Guiné-Bissau marca legislativas antecipadas para 24 de novembro". RTP (in Portuguese). 16 July 2024. Retrieved 26 July 2024.
- ^ "Guinea-Bissau: December 2024 Elections". Africa Center for Strategic Studies. Retrieved 26 March 2024.
- ^ "2024 Guinea Bissau Presidential Election". National Democratic Institute. 5 October 2023. Retrieved 26 March 2024.
- ^ "Guinea-Bissau in institutional crisis as president stays". Deutsche Welle. Retrieved 12 April 2025.
- ^ "Guinea Bissau ex-PM Embalo declared winner of runoff". AfricaNews. 5 February 2020. Retrieved 11 February 2021.
- ^ "Umaro Sissoco Embalo swears himself in as Guinea-Bissau president". BusinessLIVE. Retrieved 11 February 2021.
- ^ "Em meio a contencioso judicial, Sissoco toma "posse simbólica" como Presidente da Guiné-Bissau". Deutsche Welle. Retrieved 11 February 2021.
- ^ a b "Guinea-Bissau's president issues a decree dissolving the opposition-controlled parliament". AP News. 4 December 2023. Retrieved 26 March 2024.
- ^ a b "Guinea-Bissau: President dissolves parliament after coup bid". Deutsche Welle. Retrieved 26 March 2024.
- ^ a b c "Guinea-Bissau opposition fears 'dictatorship'". Deutsche Welle. 22 March 2024. Retrieved 26 March 2024.
- ^ "Guinea-Bissau", The World Factbook, Central Intelligence Agency, 21 February 2024, retrieved 26 March 2024
- ^ Cassamá, Lassana. "Sissoco Embaló diz que não se recandidata". VOA Português. Retrieved 7 November 2024.
- ^ "Umaro Sissoco Embalo diz que vai ficar na presidência "por muitos anos". RFI. 4 November 2024. Retrieved 7 November 2024.
- ^ "Tensions rise in Guinea-Bissau over president's mandate expiration date". Africanews. 27 February 2025. Retrieved 27 February 2025.
- ^ "Guinea-Bissau president says he will run for a second term amid political turmoil". AP News. 4 March 2025. Retrieved 4 March 2025.
- ^ Electoral system IPU
- ^ "Holding of Elections Brings Guinea Bissau Closer to Constitutional Normalcy" (PDF). European Union Election Observation Mission. 14 April 2014.
- ^ Electoral system IPU
- ^ Cook, Joseph Siegle and Candace. "Africa's 2024 Elections: Challenges and Opportunities to Regain Democratic Momentum". Africa Center for Strategic Studies. Retrieved 26 March 2024.
